Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.</li>
<li>Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.</li>
<li>Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.</li>
</ul>


November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.
Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.
Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.


Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/physicswallah-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45792:1" rel="noopener">Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN)</a> is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 319.26m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$392m at a valuation of US$3.5bn.</li>
<li>The price band has been set at INR 103-109/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.</li>
<li>The stock will be added to the AMFI Smallcap segment and inclusion in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is likely in March. Global index inclusion could commence in June.</li>
</ul>



Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 319.26m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$392m at a valuation of US$3.5bn.
The price band has been set at INR 103-109/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
The stock will be added to the AMFI Smallcap segment and inclusion in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is likely in March. Global index inclusion could commence in June.


Physicswallah IPO: Index Inclusion Possibilities & Timing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pine-labs-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33472:1" rel="noopener">Pine Labs (0568874D IN)</a> is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 176.5m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$439m at a valuation of US$2.86bn.</li>
<li>The price band has been set at INR 210-221/share and could price at the top end of the range. The IPO raise and valuation are sharply lower than earlier reports.</li>
<li>Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in May but flow will be small given the low float and the Smallcap indices that it is added to.</li>
</ul>



Pine Labs (0568874D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 176.5m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$439m at a valuation of US$2.86bn.
The price band has been set at INR 210-221/share and could price at the top end of the range. The IPO raise and valuation are sharply lower than earlier reports.
Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in May but flow will be small given the low float and the Smallcap indices that it is added to.


Pine Labs IPO: Slashed Offering Size & Lower Valuation

<ul>
<li>Implied volatility rose across most markets in October, and a continuing trend in vol premium warrants attention.  </li>
<li>November has historically produced strong price returns and positive volatility premiums across global markets.</li>
<li>Implied volatility displays clustering across markets, with two distinct groupings beginning to take shape.</li>
</ul>


Implied volatility rose across most markets in October, and a continuing trend in vol premium warrants attention.  
November has historically produced strong price returns and positive volatility premiums across global markets.
Implied volatility displays clustering across markets, with two distinct groupings beginning to take shape.


Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextbillion-technology-pvt-ltd-groww" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34787:1" rel="noopener">Groww (1573648D IN)</a> is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 663.23m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$752m at a valuation of US$7bn.</li>
<li>The price band has been set at INR 95-100/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.</li>
</ul>



Groww (1573648D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 663.23m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$752m at a valuation of US$7bn.
The price band has been set at INR 95-100/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.


Groww IPO: Growwing Fast; Index Inclusions Will Be Sloww; Small Floww

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Examining 25 years of macro market behavior around U.S. Thanksgiving to uncover recurring seasonal patterns and what they may reveal about risk and...

John Ley

Physicswallah IPO: Index Inclusion Possibilities & Timing

Physicswallah is looking to raise US$392m in its IPO at a valuation of US$3.5bn. Global small cap index adds could take place in June and August....

Brian Freitas

Pine Labs IPO: Slashed Offering Size & Lower Valuation

Pine Labs is looking to raise US$439m at a valuation of US$2.86bn. This is much lower than earlier numbers and there could be upside in the stock...

Brian Freitas

Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

Rising volatility and firm seasonal patterns define November’s setup, though shifts in vol premium suggest a more fragile market backdrop.

John Ley

Groww IPO: Growwing Fast; Index Inclusions Will Be Sloww; Small Floww

The Groww IPO will raise US$752m and value the company at US$7bn. Float is lower than 15%. That means no Fast Entry and the earliest global index...

Brian Freitas