Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

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Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN)</a> will report Second Quarter FY 2026 Results on Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close.</li>
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Highlight: Typically a low-volatility stock, TCS has seen notable post-earnings swings in the past. Option markets now anticipate a move larger than its historic average.</li>
<li>
Why it matters: TCS is a top constituent of the Nifty 50 and Sensex. TCS’s commentary on the new H-1B visa fee could influence sentiment across India’s IT services sector.</li>
</ul>



Context:Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) will report Second Quarter FY 2026 Results on Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close.

Highlight: Typically a low-volatility stock, TCS has seen notable post-earnings swings in the past. Option markets now anticipate a move larger than its historic average.

Why it matters: TCS is a top constituent of the Nifty 50 and Sensex. TCS’s commentary on the new H-1B visa fee could influence sentiment across India’s IT services sector.


Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Q2 FY2026 Results: Options Signal Larger-Than-Usual Move

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Event-Driven

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors (TTMT IN)</a> is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.</li>
<li>Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">SENSEX</a> trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.

NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.


Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44148:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics India (123D IN)</a> is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 101.8m shares at a valuation of US$8.7bn and raising around US$1.3bn in its IPO.</li>
<li>The new valuation is around 24% lower than the rumoured valuation at the time of the DRHP filing last December.</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.</li>
</ul>



LG Electronics India (123D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 101.8m shares at a valuation of US$8.7bn and raising around US$1.3bn in its IPO.
The new valuation is around 24% lower than the rumoured valuation at the time of the DRHP filing last December.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.


LG Electronics India IPO: Big Market Cap, Small Float -> Small Passive Flows

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-capital-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45653:1" rel="noopener">Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN)</a> is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.</li>
<li>The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.</li>
</ul>



Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.
The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.


Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float

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Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
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Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
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Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Q2 FY2026 Results: Options Signal Larger-Than-Usual Move

TCS will report Q2 FY2026 results on 9 October 2025 amid potential for larger-than-usual post-earnings swings. Commentary on H-1B visa fees could...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

Tata Motors is demerging its PV and CV businesses. Both entities will remain in global indices. Nifty and Sensex trackers will sell their CV shares...

Brian Freitas

LG Electronics India IPO: Big Market Cap, Small Float -> Small Passive Flows

The LG Electronics India IPO will raise US$1.3bn and value the company at US$8.7bn. Float is lower than 15%. That means no Fast Entry and the...

Brian Freitas

Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float

Tata Cap is looking to raise up to US$1.75bn at a valuation of US$15.6bn. A free float of less than 15% will keep the stock out of one major global...

Brian Freitas

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider