Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.</li>
</ul>



Context:HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.

Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.

Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>GST cuts across autos, FMCG, durables, and farm inputs are expected to lift India Inc revenue growth by 25–50 bps in FY26.</li>
<li>The timing coincides with weak rural demand, festival season consumption, and global macro headwinds, giving policy-driven tailwinds to discretionary and farm-linked sectors.</li>
<li>While sectoral impact will diverge, the cuts tilt the earnings balance modestly upward, with consumption-heavy corporates best positioned to benefit.</li>
</ul>


GST cuts across autos, FMCG, durables, and farm inputs are expected to lift India Inc revenue growth by 25–50 bps in FY26.
The timing coincides with weak rural demand, festival season consumption, and global macro headwinds, giving policy-driven tailwinds to discretionary and farm-linked sectors.
While sectoral impact will diverge, the cuts tilt the earnings balance modestly upward, with consumption-heavy corporates best positioned to benefit.


Thematic Report: GST Rate Cuts; A Consumption-Led Boost for India Inc

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.</li>
<li>Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.</li>
<li>Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.
Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.
Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.


Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

<ul>
<li>September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> will join both the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>


September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. Pop Mart (9992 HK) will join both the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>India’s National Statistical Office reported 7.8% real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2025), a clear beat versus a Reuters poll at 6.7% and above Q4’s 7.4%</li>
<li>Economists point to a softer deflator, solid government capex, and front-loaded exports ahead of tariff implementation. Even so, the level of real activity was strong relative to expectations. </li>
<li>Strong domestic parameters like GST and PMI, points towards strong domestic demand despite tariff and export uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


India’s National Statistical Office reported 7.8% real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2025), a clear beat versus a Reuters poll at 6.7% and above Q4’s 7.4%
Economists point to a softer deflator, solid government capex, and front-loaded exports ahead of tariff implementation. Even so, the level of real activity was strong relative to expectations. 
Strong domestic parameters like GST and PMI, points towards strong domestic demand despite tariff and export uncertainty.


Thematic Report: India's Economy Remain Resilient During Uncertain Times

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

A bullish technical setup for HDFC Bank offers potential upside, with long call option strategies favored amid historically low implied volatility.

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report: GST Rate Cuts; A Consumption-Led Boost for India Inc

GST cuts in various sectors are projected to boost India Inc revenue growth by 25-50 bps in FY26, providing a timely lift amid weak rural demand...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

September outlook highlights inexpensive implied vols, seasonal pressures, and risk-reward spreads that favor CSI300 while underscoring poorrisk...

John Ley

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report: India's Economy Remain Resilient During Uncertain Times

India's real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 beats expectations at 7.8%, driven by solid government capex and strong domestic demand despite export...

Nimish Maheshwari

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

A bullish technical setup for HDFC Bank offers potential upside, with long call option strategies favored amid historically low implied volatility.

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report: GST Rate Cuts; A Consumption-Led Boost for India Inc

​GST cuts in various sectors are projected to boost India Inc revenue growth by 25-50 bps in FY26, providing a timely lift amid weak rural demand...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

September outlook highlights inexpensive implied vols, seasonal pressures, and risk-reward spreads that favor CSI300 while underscoring poorrisk...

John Ley

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report: India's Economy Remain Resilient During Uncertain Times

​India's real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 beats expectations at 7.8%, driven by solid government capex and strong domestic demand despite export...

Nimish Maheshwari

GST cuts in various sectors are projected to boost India Inc revenue growth by 25-50 bps in FY26, providing a timely lift amid weak rural demand...

India's real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 beats expectations at 7.8%, driven by solid government capex and strong domestic demand despite export...