Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> dived to 46544 on Tuesday, after peaking at 48.5k last week. It was ultra-overbought.</li>
<li>
This correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally (or enter the rally, if you missed it), but don't be too eager to enter early.</li>
<li>
The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> could correct easily for 2,3 or even 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered, according to our TIME MODEL. 43.5k may be the right area, details in insight.
</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) dived to 46544 on Tuesday, after peaking at 48.5k last week. It was ultra-overbought.

This correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally (or enter the rally, if you missed it), but don't be too eager to enter early.

The Nikkei could correct easily for 2,3 or even 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered, according to our TIME MODEL. 43.5k may be the right area, details in insight.



Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Setup: BUY The Bottom, Not the Dip!

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has reached eye-popping valuations, a 20% rally from the end of June into early October (40k to 48k).</li>
<li>Our forecast is always short-term, 3-5 weeks horizon, so we cannot say if the index will continue to rally in 2026, but right now it's OVERBOUGHT.</li>
<li>We expect a pullback soon, you can buy the pullback, we discuss the support areas in the insight.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has reached eye-popping valuations, a 20% rally from the end of June into early October (40k to 48k).
Our forecast is always short-term, 3-5 weeks horizon, so we cannot say if the index will continue to rally in 2026, but right now it's OVERBOUGHT.
We expect a pullback soon, you can buy the pullback, we discuss the support areas in the insight.


Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Outlook: Flying Too High...

<ul>
<li>Multi-Week forecasts for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.</li>
<li>OVERBOUGHT: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Multi-Week forecasts for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.
OVERBOUGHT: Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) 
OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)



Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> reached 44790 on Wednesday, this is the 3rd week up in a row for the index, this market is OVERBOUGHT.</li>
<li>The outlook remains bullish, the forecast is for a pullback, followed by another leg up.</li>
<li>This insight's goal is to help you figure out where to cover your LONG <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> positions, and where to add more LONG positions during the pullback.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) reached 44790 on Wednesday, this is the 3rd week up in a row for the index, this market is OVERBOUGHT.
The outlook remains bullish, the forecast is for a pullback, followed by another leg up.
This insight's goal is to help you figure out where to cover your LONG Nikkei 225 positions, and where to add more LONG positions during the pullback.


'Toppish' Nikkei 225's Outlook: Where to Cover, Where to Buy

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.</li>
<li>
Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.

Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.

Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Setup: BUY The Bottom, Not the Dip!

The Nikkei 225 index's correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally at discounted prices, but timing is key: it could last 2-4 weeks. A...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Outlook: Flying Too High...

The Nikkei 225 has surged 20% since June, it's overbought. Our WEEKLY models say "ultra-overbought". We are forecasting a pullback soon, possibily...

Nico Rosti

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

Multi-week forecasts for Asian indices and stocks show Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Toyota Motor, and Nikkei 225 as overbought, while...

Nico Rosti

'Toppish' Nikkei 225's Outlook: Where to Cover, Where to Buy

The Nikkei 225 hit 44790 on Sep 17th, its 3rd week of gains, it's overbought. We forecast a pullback now, then higher. Trading idea: cover LONG...

Nico Rosti

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. The BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Setup: BUY The Bottom, Not the Dip!

​The Nikkei 225 index's correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally at discounted prices, but timing is key: it could last 2-4 weeks. A...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Outlook: Flying Too High...

​The Nikkei 225 has surged 20% since June, it's overbought. Our WEEKLY models say "ultra-overbought". We are forecasting a pullback soon, possibily...

Nico Rosti

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

​Multi-week forecasts for Asian indices and stocks show Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Toyota Motor, and Nikkei 225 as overbought, while...

Nico Rosti

'Toppish' Nikkei 225's Outlook: Where to Cover, Where to Buy

The ​Nikkei 225 hit 44790 on Sep 17th, its 3rd week of gains, it's overbought. We forecast a pullback now, then higher. Trading idea: cover LONG...

Nico Rosti

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. The BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually...

Gaudenz Schneider

The Nikkei 225 index's correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally at discounted prices, but timing is key: it could last 2-4 weeks. A...

The Nikkei 225 has surged 20% since June, it's overbought. Our WEEKLY models say "ultra-overbought". We are forecasting a pullback soon, possibily...

Multi-week forecasts for Asian indices and stocks show Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Toyota Motor, and Nikkei 225 as overbought, while...

The Nikkei 225 hit 44790 on Sep 17th, its 3rd week of gains, it's overbought. We forecast a pullback now, then higher. Trading idea: cover LONG...