Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY) INDEX</a> closed last week down at 31259.36. It's currently trading between the Q2 and Q3 WEEKLY support levels and down for 4 months, so it's OVERSOLD.</li>
<li>The index could reverse this week, or fall more into the end of October, but if this week closes down, the odds are very good for a rally in November.</li>
<li>Consider going LONG between here and supports in the 30600-30400 price area, a MONTHLY reversal could last at least 2-4 weeks (a month).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY) INDEX closed last week down at 31259.36. It's currently trading between the Q2 and Q3 WEEKLY support levels and down for 4 months, so it's OVERSOLD.
The index could reverse this week, or fall more into the end of October, but if this week closes down, the odds are very good for a rally in November.
Consider going LONG between here and supports in the 30600-30400 price area, a MONTHLY reversal could last at least 2-4 weeks (a month).


EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.</li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.</li>
</ul>


There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.
Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.
Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.


Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> closed September down at 31857.62, CC=-3 (3 months down). Did not double-bottom at August's lows (31674), but is starting to be OVERSOLD MONTHLY (time perspective).</li>
<li>A new Market Reversal Matrix Seasonality model is hinting that October 2023 probably will not see a rally/reversal, but just below-average gains (if any).</li>
<li>One possible scenario (due to concomitant WEEKLY OVERSOLD conditions) is to see the Nikkei up early in October, then down again, closing the month with small gains or a loss.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX closed September down at 31857.62, CC=-3 (3 months down). Did not double-bottom at August's lows (31674), but is starting to be OVERSOLD MONTHLY (time perspective).
A new Market Reversal Matrix Seasonality model is hinting that October 2023 probably will not see a rally/reversal, but just below-average gains (if any).
One possible scenario (due to concomitant WEEKLY OVERSOLD conditions) is to see the Nikkei up early in October, then down again, closing the month with small gains or a loss.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good...

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> is getting WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after just +1 week up. Rallying further during the next 2-3 weeks may be hard, it could stall or fall.</li>
<li>If the index rallies further this week, it could fall the following week. Alternatively it could stall this week and rally the following week/s, but OVERBOUGHT status won't go away.</li>
<li>34256 is the Q3 resistance target on CC=+3, this should be a hard barrier to breach. An earlier barrier is Q3 resistance on the Gen.Pattern Boxplot = 33835.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX is getting WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after just +1 week up. Rallying further during the next 2-3 weeks may be hard, it could stall or fall.
If the index rallies further this week, it could fall the following week. Alternatively it could stall this week and rally the following week/s, but OVERBOUGHT status won't go away.
34256 is the Q3 resistance target on CC=+3, this should be a hard barrier to breach. An earlier barrier is Q3 resistance on the Gen.Pattern Boxplot = 33835.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Enters WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT Resistance Area

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> fell -5.77% during July and August (CC=-2). Currently the index is down for September: this month's negative Close would be = CC=-3, a strong LONG signal.</li>
<li>The index reached a low = 31275.25 in August, right in the middle of the 32391-30600 support price band indicated in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-225-nky-monthly-trajectories" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis</a>,  50%-75% reversal probability.</li>
<li>LONG Support levels are confirmed, in this insight we will analyze the new, re-calculated Resistance levels, to evaluate how far/how long the index could rise, if it rallies.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell -5.77% during July and August (CC=-2). Currently the index is down for September: this month's negative Close would be = CC=-3, a strong LONG signal.
The index reached a low = 31275.25 in August, right in the middle of the 32391-30600 support price band indicated in our previous MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis,  50%-75% reversal probability.
LONG Support levels are confirmed, in this insight we will analyze the new, re-calculated Resistance levels, to evaluate how far/how long the index could rise, if it rallies.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming

The Nikkei 225 index is currently OVERSOLD WEEKLY and MONTHLY. A rally in November may finally start, if this week closes down, making it a good...

Nico Rosti

Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

There will be passive selling in a bunch of stocks on 31 May. There has been an increase in shorts and in cumulative excess volume on the stocks,...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good...

The Nikkei 225 closed September down, becoming MONTHLY OVERSOLD. October may not bring a rally, but rather below-average gains. Possible scenario:...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Enters WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT Resistance Area

The Nikkei 225 Index is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after its 1-week up rally (CC=+1), additional gains in the next 2-3 weeks will be hampered down by...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming

​The Nikkei 225 index is currently OVERSOLD WEEKLY and MONTHLY. A rally in November may finally start, if this week closes down, making it a good...

Nico Rosti

Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

There will be passive selling in a bunch of stocks on 31 May. There has been an increase in shorts and in cumulative excess volume on the stocks,...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good...

​The Nikkei 225 closed September down, becoming MONTHLY OVERSOLD. October may not bring a rally, but rather below-average gains. Possible scenario:...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Enters WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT Resistance Area

​The Nikkei 225 Index is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after its 1-week up rally (CC=+1), additional gains in the next 2-3 weeks will be hampered down by...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

​The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...

Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 index is currently OVERSOLD WEEKLY and MONTHLY. A rally in November may finally start, if this week closes down, making it a good...

The Nikkei 225 closed September down, becoming MONTHLY OVERSOLD. October may not bring a rally, but rather below-average gains. Possible scenario:...

The Nikkei 225 Index is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after its 1-week up rally (CC=+1), additional gains in the next 2-3 weeks will be hampered down by...

The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...