Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>As predicted in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-index-outlook-bullish-possibly-directed-past-41k" target="_blank" rel="noopener">July 15th insight</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rallied past 41k (reached near 44k) and now, as predicted by our latest <a href="https://qantrading.com/quantcharts/Heatmaps/rev_prob_heat_map_WEEKLY.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WEEKLY HEAT MAP</a>, went down.</li>
<li>The index reached a low of 42724 this week, it is only mildly oversold so far, probability of reversal is around 52% at the moment.</li>
<li>
Key support levels to watch are 42577 (Q2) and 41606 (Q3). A file with all our PRICE/TIME model dataset for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> is attached at the end, for your reference. </li>
</ul>


As predicted in our July 15th insight, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied past 41k (reached near 44k) and now, as predicted by our latest WEEKLY HEAT MAP, went down.
The index reached a low of 42724 this week, it is only mildly oversold so far, probability of reversal is around 52% at the moment.

Key support levels to watch are 42577 (Q2) and 41606 (Q3). A file with all our PRICE/TIME model dataset for the Nikkei 225 is attached at the end, for your reference. 


Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Key Buy Targets To Watch

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul><li>BUY APR25 37500/36500 PS 1X2 for a 36,500 Apr25 SQ.     </li><li>Uncertainty around USDJPY and tariffs are capping the Nikkei 225 and USDJPY</li><li>Take advantage of rich implied volatility current realized volatility</li></ul>

BUY APR25 37500/36500 PS 1X2 for a 36,500 Apr25 SQ.     Uncertainty around USDJPY and tariffs are capping the Nikkei 225 and USDJPYTake advantage of rich implied volatility current realized volatility

Nikkei 225: Trading Ideas for APR25 Expiry

<ul>
<li>NKY dividends were under pressure last week as Nikkei lost 1.9%.    </li>
<li>Solid volumes across the curve with 1967 contracts trading.    </li>
<li>Growing interest in steepeners: 2025/2026, 2026/2027 and 2026/2028.    </li>
</ul>


NKY dividends were under pressure last week as Nikkei lost 1.9%.    
Solid volumes across the curve with 1967 contracts trading.    
Growing interest in steepeners: 2025/2026, 2026/2027 and 2026/2028.    


EQD | Nikkei Dividends Update (Jan 10th – Jan 17th)

<ul>
<li>Short term NKY dividends were unchanged whereas long term dividends were slighly under pressure.</li>
<li>Volumes were concentrated on short term tenors (mostly 2025).</li>
<li>Dividend Yield 2025 around 1.95% (close to average)</li>
</ul>


Short term NKY dividends were unchanged whereas long term dividends were slighly under pressure.
Volumes were concentrated on short term tenors (mostly 2025).
Dividend Yield 2025 around 1.95% (close to average)


EQD | Nikkei Dividends Update – Nikkei (Jan 6th – Jan 13th)

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.</li>
<li>The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.</li>
<li>With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.</li>
</ul>


Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.
The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.
With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Key Buy Targets To Watch

The Nikkei 225 index rallied past 41k, nearly reached 44k, now down to 42.7k, mildly oversold with 52% chance of reversal. Key support levels at...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225: Trading Ideas for APR25 Expiry

BUY APR25 37500/36500 PS 1X2 for a 36,500 Apr25 SQ. Uncertainty around USDJPY and tariffs are capping the Nikkei 225 and USDJPY Take advantage of...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

EQD | Nikkei Dividends Update (Jan 10th – Jan 17th)

NKY dividends were under pressure last week as Nikkei lost 1.9%. Solid volumes across the curve with 1967 contracts trading. Growing interest in...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

EQD | Nikkei Dividends Update – Nikkei (Jan 6th – Jan 13th)

Short term NKY dividends were unchanged whereas long term dividends were slighly under pressure. Volumes were concentrated on short term tenors...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Key Buy Targets To Watch

The ​Nikkei 225 index rallied past 41k, nearly reached 44k, now down to 42.7k, mildly oversold with 52% chance of reversal. Key support levels at...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225: Trading Ideas for APR25 Expiry

BUY APR25 37500/36500 PS 1X2 for a 36,500 Apr25 SQ. Uncertainty around USDJPY and tariffs are capping the Nikkei 225 and USDJPY Take advantage of...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

EQD | Nikkei Dividends Update (Jan 10th – Jan 17th)

NKY dividends were under pressure last week as Nikkei lost 1.9%. Solid volumes across the curve with 1967 contracts trading. Growing interest in...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

EQD | Nikkei Dividends Update – Nikkei (Jan 6th – Jan 13th)

Short term NKY dividends were unchanged whereas long term dividends were slighly under pressure. Volumes were concentrated on short term tenors...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

The Nikkei 225 index rallied past 41k, nearly reached 44k, now down to 42.7k, mildly oversold with 52% chance of reversal. Key support levels at...