Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After a strong rally in November, the Nikkei is currently in a temporary corrective phase, reaching between the Q1 and Q2 support levels of the MRM LONG chart. </li>
<li>There are 2 possible paths from here: 1) a modest pullback, followed by a rally into the end of December, 2) a dive to &lt;= 31672, and December closes down.</li>
<li>Both these scenarios offer very good seasonal LONG odds for January closing up (based on our SRM model), so we suggest going LONG the Nikkei 225 on the pullback.</li>
</ul>


After a strong rally in November, the Nikkei is currently in a temporary corrective phase, reaching between the Q1 and Q2 support levels of the MRM LONG chart. 
There are 2 possible paths from here: 1) a modest pullback, followed by a rally into the end of December, 2) a dive to &lt;= 31672, and December closes down.
Both these scenarios offer very good seasonal LONG odds for January closing up (based on our SRM model), so we suggest going LONG the Nikkei 225 on the pullback.


<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> closed the month of October down, 4 months down in a row (CC=-4), very OVERSOLD MONTHLY. The 30600 support indicated in our last MONTHLY insight did hold somehow. </li>
<li>We think the Nikkei could continue to rally in November, but this explosive, fast rally, at one point will have to retrace back, before it can continue up. </li>
<li>The index could rally for 2 months, into December. The target prices for the end of the rally are near 34000.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei closed the month of October down, 4 months down in a row (CC=-4), very OVERSOLD MONTHLY. The 30600 support indicated in our last MONTHLY insight did hold somehow. 
We think the Nikkei could continue to rally in November, but this explosive, fast rally, at one point will have to retrace back, before it can continue up. 
The index could rally for 2 months, into December. The target prices for the end of the rally are near 34000.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY)'s November Rally: How Far Can It GO?

Focus on Smaller Cap Value Names, Altay Capital

Altay Capital

Focus on Smaller Cap Value Names

Long time value investor. Long/Short portfolio that’s always net long (between 30-80%). I have extensive experience in the video game industry as I founded a leading media company in the space, which I have since exited after an acquisition. Gaming companies only make up ~15% of my portfolio, but its a sector where I believe I have an edge. A newsletter about value investing! Mostly focus on smaller cap value names that aren't widely covered.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I initially began my cheap Japanese basket in March 2023 and now that 2023 has come to an end, let’s take a look at how everything worked out.</li><li>But first, a quick summary of the themes in my basket and why I’m broadly still bullish on deep value Japan.</li><li>Within my basket of cheap Japanese companies, there are 3 broad themes: higher quality businesses with better RoEs and P/TBV closer to 0.7x, dirt cheap deep value net nets with P/TBV of 0.2-0.4x, and deeply discounted companies with underappreciated land assets</li></ul>

I initially began my cheap Japanese basket in March 2023 and now that 2023 has come to an end, let’s take a look at how everything worked out.But first, a quick summary of the themes in my basket and why I’m broadly still bullish on deep value Japan.Within my basket of cheap Japanese companies, there are 3 broad themes: higher quality businesses with better RoEs and P/TBV closer to 0.7x, dirt cheap deep value net nets with P/TBV of 0.2-0.4x, and deeply discounted companies with underappreciated land assets

The Cheap Japanese Basket: Year-End Portfolio Review and Reasons Why I Remain Bullish

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What Trades Make Sense?

<ul>
<li>Last week, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> closed down at 30991.69 (CC=-2). The index's sell-off could end in November, marking a temporary bottom from which a rally could start.</li>
<li>MRM models say that if the Nikkei bounces this week, it could rise for 3 weeks and reach a price area between 31624 (Q3/CC=+1) and 32892 (Q3/Gen.Pattern Boxplot).</li>
<li>The upcoming rally comes as a reaction to quite OVERSOLD conditions, as previously discussed, but could be followed by another pullback. This insight points to where the rally may end.</li>
</ul>


Last week, the Nikkei closed down at 30991.69 (CC=-2). The index's sell-off could end in November, marking a temporary bottom from which a rally could start.
MRM models say that if the Nikkei bounces this week, it could rise for 3 weeks and reach a price area between 31624 (Q3/CC=+1) and 32892 (Q3/Gen.Pattern Boxplot).
The upcoming rally comes as a reaction to quite OVERSOLD conditions, as previously discussed, but could be followed by another pullback. This insight points to where the rally may end.


EQD | If the Nikkei Begins to Rally, Where Will It Encounter Resistance?

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Analysis

The Nikkei is in a temporary correction phase, with 2 possible paths ahead: a modest pullback followed by a rally, or a dive below 32000 with...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY)'s November Rally: How Far Can It GO?

The Nikkei closed October down, 4 months down, OVERSOLD, now rallying in November but will retrace back if it goes up too fast. The rally could...

Nico Rosti

The Cheap Japanese Basket: Year-End Portfolio Review and Reasons Why I Remain Bullish

I initially began my cheap Japanese basket in March 2023 and now that 2023 has come to an end, let’s take a look at how everything worked out.

Altay Capital

EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What Trades Make Sense?

A brief look at global vol changes over the last week, analysing vol and skew moves. We identify some trades that make sense based on the shape of...

Simon Harris

EQD | If the Nikkei Begins to Rally, Where Will It Encounter Resistance?

The Nikkei's recent sell-off may reach a temporary bottom in November, the following rally could last for 3 weeks, with target price in the 31624...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Analysis

​The Nikkei is in a temporary correction phase, with 2 possible paths ahead: a modest pullback followed by a rally, or a dive below 32000 with...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY)'s November Rally: How Far Can It GO?

​The Nikkei closed October down, 4 months down, OVERSOLD, now rallying in November but will retrace back if it goes up too fast. The rally could...

Nico Rosti

The Cheap Japanese Basket: Year-End Portfolio Review and Reasons Why I Remain Bullish

I initially began my cheap Japanese basket in March 2023 and now that 2023 has come to an end, let’s take a look at how everything worked out.

Altay Capital

EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What Trades Make Sense?

A brief look at global vol changes over the last week, analysing vol and skew moves. We identify some trades that make sense based on the shape of...

Simon Harris

EQD | If the Nikkei Begins to Rally, Where Will It Encounter Resistance?

​The Nikkei's recent sell-off may reach a temporary bottom in November, the following rally could last for 3 weeks, with target price in the 31624...

Nico Rosti

The Nikkei is in a temporary correction phase, with 2 possible paths ahead: a modest pullback followed by a rally, or a dive below 32000 with...

The Nikkei closed October down, 4 months down, OVERSOLD, now rallying in November but will retrace back if it goes up too fast. The rally could...

The Nikkei's recent sell-off may reach a temporary bottom in November, the following rally could last for 3 weeks, with target price in the 31624...