IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> is seeking to raise as much as $1.6 billion (at the last close price) through an issue of 47 million ADSs. The funds will be used for R&amp;D of next-generation electric vehicle technologies (such as high-voltage platform, high C-rate battery, and ultra-fast charging), the next BEV platform and future car models, and autonomous driving technologies and solutions.</p></div><div><p>The follow-on offering comes just four months from the July IPO, where Li Auto raised net proceeds of $1 billion at $11.50 per ADS. The shares have been of a tear and have risen 3x since the IPO. The net cash including lease liabilities stood at $2.5 billion at the end of 9M20, which points to an opportunistic raise to build a war chest.  </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>We remain bullish on Li Auto’ prospects and believe that the company remains well-placed to deliver profitability in 2022. Notwithstanding, the strong share price run, the shares continue to look attractive relative to EV peers. Overall, we would participate in the placement.</p></div></div></div>

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) is seeking to raise as much as $1.6 billion (at the last close price) through an issue of 47 million ADSs. The funds will be used for R&amp;D of next-generation electric vehicle technologies (such as high-voltage platform, high C-rate battery, and ultra-fast charging), the next BEV platform and future car models, and autonomous driving technologies and solutions.The follow-on offering comes just four months from the July IPO, where Li Auto raised net proceeds of $1 billion at $11.50 per ADS. The shares have been of a tear and have risen 3x since the IPO. The net cash including lease liabilities stood at $2.5 billion at the end of 9M20, which points to an opportunistic raise to build a war chest.  We remain bullish on Li Auto’ prospects and believe that the company remains well-placed to deliver profitability in 2022. Notwithstanding, the strong share price run, the shares continue to look attractive relative to EV peers. Overall, we would participate in the placement.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our US Defense Composite Indicator is showing signs of bottoming following pre-election uncertainty; the indicator is strongly correlated with defense prime equity relative returns</li>
<li>The momentum of decline was arrested immediately post-elections as "Blue Wave" predictions failed to materialize, followed on by Biden's announcement of a relatively hawkish Pentagon transition team</li>
<li>Cyclical rotation and an October lull in Department of Defense contracting may have magnified the negative trend, but incoming data suggests the worst may be over</li>
<li>In October, our Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Indicator took a hit as the Nikola (NKLA) scandal unfolded and the GM/NKLA partnership was in doubt</li>
<li>Following some volatility in key hydrogen economy equities, our indicator surged in the MTD on a barrage of positive news flow from multiple auto &amp; truck players, as well as hydrogen infrastructure news; though "Blue Wave" expectations of a supercharged renewables push were initially questioned, the theme resumed its rally in November </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Our US Defense Composite Indicator is showing signs of bottoming following pre-election uncertainty; the indicator is strongly correlated with defense prime equity relative returns
The momentum of decline was arrested immediately post-elections as "Blue Wave" predictions failed to materialize, followed on by Biden's announcement of a relatively hawkish Pentagon transition team
Cyclical rotation and an October lull in Department of Defense contracting may have magnified the negative trend, but incoming data suggests the worst may be over
In October, our Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Indicator took a hit as the Nikola (NKLA) scandal unfolded and the GM/NKLA partnership was in doubt
Following some volatility in key hydrogen economy equities, our indicator surged in the MTD on a barrage of positive news flow from multiple auto &amp; truck players, as well as hydrogen infrastructure news; though "Blue Wave" expectations of a supercharged renewables push were initially questioned, the theme resumed its rally in November 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots: US Defense Equity Sentiment Bottoming; Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Surges Again

<ul>
<li>Our text-mined Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Indicator has trended down to negative territory recently, primarily driven by negative <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikola-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29029:1" rel="noopener">Nikola Corp (NKLA US)</a>  news flow since the September 10 short-seller report, subsequent CEO resignation and uncertainty on the GM partnership</li>
<li>As the hydrogen economy theme gathered momentum this year, platinum prices rallied along as the platinum story was reframed from "death of diesel" to "birth of hydrogen" despite uncertainties on timeframe and ultimate fuel cell platinum demand</li>
<li>Given the strong performance of pure-play hydrogen fuel cell names (such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ballard-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25813:1" rel="noopener">Ballard Power Systems (BLDP CN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plug-power-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18244:1" rel="noopener">Plug Power Inc (PLUG US)</a> and Bloom Energy (BE US), we cannot argue that the theme has suffered overall from NKLA's crisis; but in the past 90 days, elevated correlations between platinum and NKLA (78%) are hard to ignore</li>
<li>We suspect closure on the GM/Nikola partnership may provide a jolt to the platinum price in either direction; as the platinum market is thin, key alternatives to the commodity include the Aberdeen Standard Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT US), Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW US) and AngloPlats (AMS SJ)</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Our text-mined Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Indicator has trended down to negative territory recently, primarily driven by negative Nikola Corp (NKLA US)  news flow since the September 10 short-seller report, subsequent CEO resignation and uncertainty on the GM partnership
As the hydrogen economy theme gathered momentum this year, platinum prices rallied along as the platinum story was reframed from "death of diesel" to "birth of hydrogen" despite uncertainties on timeframe and ultimate fuel cell platinum demand
Given the strong performance of pure-play hydrogen fuel cell names (such as Ballard Power Systems (BLDP CN) , Plug Power Inc (PLUG US) and Bloom Energy (BE US), we cannot argue that the theme has suffered overall from NKLA's crisis; but in the past 90 days, elevated correlations between platinum and NKLA (78%) are hard to ignore
We suspect closure on the GM/Nikola partnership may provide a jolt to the platinum price in either direction; as the platinum market is thin, key alternatives to the commodity include the Aberdeen Standard Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT US), Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW US) and AngloPlats (AMS SJ)
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Platinum Price Hostage to Nikola?

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</strong></a> could send a message to embattled <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikola-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29029:1" rel="noopener">Nikola Corp (NKLA US)</a></strong>: <strong>been there, done that</strong>.</p><p><strong>Nikola's founder and CEO Trevor Milton has stepped down</strong> after he and his company have been <a href="https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">accused</a> of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-12/nikola-s-history-of-discrepancies-has-been-hiding-in-plain-sight?sref=Q1XEaVVD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">seemingly everything</a> from <strong>dicey accounting</strong> to promoting <strong>technology the company doesn't have</strong> to <strong>fake product demos</strong> designed to <strong>deliberately mislead investors—</strong>charges now being investigated by the <strong>US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)</strong> and <strong>Department of Justice (DOJ)</strong>.</p><p><strong>Every single allegation and more, plus the spectre of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-faces-deepening-criminal-probe-over-whether-it-misstated-production-figures-1540576636" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ongoing investigations </a>by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/02/13/tesla-sec/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the SEC</a> and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-faces-deepening-criminal-probe-over-whether-it-misstated-production-figures-1540576636" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the DOJ</a>, also describe Tesla as run by CEO Elon Musk.</strong></p><p>Keep this in mind as <strong>we await what he and Tesla may promise</strong> tomorrow in the company's eagerly awaited <strong>"<a href="https://www.tesla.com/2020shareholdermeeting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Battery Day</a>"</strong> presentation to investors.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><em>Full Bond Angle report <strong>continues</strong>...</em></p></div>

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) could send a message to embattled Nikola Corp (NKLA US): been there, done that.Nikola's founder and CEO Trevor Milton has stepped down after he and his company have been accused of seemingly everything from dicey accounting to promoting technology the company doesn't have to fake product demos designed to deliberately mislead investors—charges now being investigated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Department of Justice (DOJ).Every single allegation and more, plus the spectre of ongoing investigations by the SEC and the DOJ, also describe Tesla as run by CEO Elon Musk.Keep this in mind as we await what he and Tesla may promise tomorrow in the company's eagerly awaited "Battery Day" presentation to investors.Full Bond Angle report continues...

Nikola's Troubles And Tesla's History Shadow Battery Day

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

<p>A few weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikola-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29029:1" rel="noopener">Nikola Corp (NKLA US)</a> was seen as a winning SPAC related investment, but the NKLA<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikola-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29029:1" rel="noopener"> </a> story has yet to fully unfold. We rate the risks of further fall-out high. Moreover,  NKLA's potential fall from grace could have wider ramifications for SPACs in general which until now appeared to have secured their claim for  greater legitmacy as an investment class.</p>

A few weeks ago, Nikola Corp (NKLA US) was seen as a winning SPAC related investment, but the NKLA  story has yet to fully unfold. We rate the risks of further fall-out high. Moreover,  NKLA's potential fall from grace could have wider ramifications for SPACs in general which until now appeared to have secured their claim for  greater legitmacy as an investment class.

Nikola:A Winning SPAC Story Turning Into Greek Tragedy & A Shot Across the Bows for SPAC Investors

United States

Nikola Corporation operates as a zero-emissions transportation and infrastructure solution provider. The Company is a designer and manufacturer of battery-electric and hydrogen-electric vehicles, electric vehicle drivetrains, vehicle components, energy storage systems, and hydrogen fueling station infrastructure.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nikola Corp (NKLA US)

Li Auto Placement: Revving Up

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) is seeking to raise as much as $1.6 billion (at the last close price) through an issue of 47 million ADSs. Overall, we would...

Arun George

TMI Snapshots: US Defense Equity Sentiment Bottoming; Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Surges Again

We see clear signs of a bottom forming in US defense equities with a split government and hawkish Biden Pentagon transition team. In addition, our...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Platinum Price Hostage to Nikola?

A key driver of the 2020 platinum rally has been increased optimism on hydrogen fuel cell technology. We observe outsized correlations between...

Elan Gore

Nikola's Troubles And Tesla's History Shadow Battery Day

what to expect

Vicki Bryan

Nikola:A Winning SPAC Story Turning Into Greek Tragedy & A Shot Across the Bows for SPAC Investors

The $

Robert Sassoon

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)