Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Liquidity shorts can be great short candidates.  The key characteristic is that the company may not be viable, economically, given their cash flows and cash requirements. </li>
<li>Liquidity shorts have built-in catalysts, tend to have moderate to higher betas,  and can have strong down moves as the liquidity crisis gets closer in time. </li>
<li>They can also go bankrupt, pushing the stock price close to zero.</li>
</ul>


Liquidity shorts can be great short candidates.  The key characteristic is that the company may not be viable, economically, given their cash flows and cash requirements. 
Liquidity shorts have built-in catalysts, tend to have moderate to higher betas,  and can have strong down moves as the liquidity crisis gets closer in time. 
They can also go bankrupt, pushing the stock price close to zero.


Liquidity Risk Short Candidates: PureCycle, Atara Biothera, Nikola, Dutch Bros.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Back on the 31st March this year, the SGX <a href="https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2021-03/Consultation%20Paper%20on%20Proposed%20Listing%20Framework%20for%20Special%20Purpose%20Acquisition%20Companies.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a regulatory framework for SPACs to list on the SGX. This followed a <a href="https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2018-09/Consultation%2BPaper%2Bon%2BProposed%2BRevisions%2Bto%2BMainboard%2BAdmission%2BCriteria%2Band%2Bthe%2BIntroduction%2Bof%2BSPAC.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">consultation paper</a> over a decade earlier.
The feedback phase ended on the 28 April - there were 80 respondents - and unfazed by increased regulatory oversight on blank cheque companies in the US, the SGX <a href="https://www.sgx.com/media-centre/20210902-sgx-introduces-spac-listing-framework" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a proposed listing framework yesterday.
The detailed paper is <a href="https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2021-09/Response%20Paper%20on%20Proposed%20Listing%20Framework%20for%20Special%20Purpose%20Acquisition%20Companies.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. 
The final framework mostly mirrors the March consultation paper, with the largest change being the abolishment of limits on the exercise of redemption rights by independent shareholders.
More below the fold.

Back on the 31st March this year, the SGX announced a regulatory framework for SPACs to list on the SGX. This followed a consultation paper over a decade earlier.
The feedback phase ended on the 28 April - there were 80 respondents - and unfazed by increased regulatory oversight on blank cheque companies in the US, the SGX announced a proposed listing framework yesterday.
The detailed paper is here. 
The final framework mostly mirrors the March consultation paper, with the largest change being the abolishment of limits on the exercise of redemption rights by independent shareholders.
More below the fold.

Green Light For SPAC Listings In Singapore

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikola-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29029:1" rel="noopener">Nikola Corp (NKLA US)</a> ex CEO Trevor Milton has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/nikola-s-milton-turns-to-lawyers-who-defended-tesla-s-musk?sref=Q1XEaVVD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hired the s</a><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/nikola-s-milton-turns-to-lawyers-who-defended-tesla-s-musk?sref=Q1XEaVVD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ame lawyers</a> who defended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> CEO Elon Musk in his securities fraud conviction in 2018.He might also consider Jay Clayton.Few lawyers have been more helpful to Elon Musk than ex SEC chair Jay Clayton, given his astonishing leniency with Elon over his fake buyout of Tesla which cost investors $20 billion in evaporated market cap.

Bloomberg reported that Nikola Corp (NKLA US) ex CEO Trevor Milton has hired the same lawyers who defended Tesla Motors (TSLA US) CEO Elon Musk in his securities fraud conviction in 2018.He might also consider Jay Clayton.Few lawyers have been more helpful to Elon Musk than ex SEC chair Jay Clayton, given his astonishing leniency with Elon over his fake buyout of Tesla which cost investors $20 billion in evaporated market cap.

Nikola's Milton Just Hired Elon's Lawyers

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikola-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29029:1" rel="noopener">Nikola Corp (NKLA US)</a> ousted <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-charged-for-allegedly-misleading-investors?sref=Q1XEaVVD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">founder/CEO Trevor Milton was charged in federal court today with criminal and civil fraud</a> for lying to investors for years about “nearly every aspect of the business” to juice the stock price.This comes just two weeks after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> CEO Elon Musk defended himself in court over his role in <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-13/musk-keeps-temper-in-check-in-tesla-solarcity-trial-testimony?sref=Q1XEaVVD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pushing Tesla in 2016 to buy SolarCity</a> for an insupportable $2 billion without revealing its near-bankruptcy distress in order to bail out his relatives who ran it. Tesla already paid $60 million last year to settle the case, but Musk, true to form, stubbornly resists any efforts to hold him accountable for just about anything, no matter the harm.It could cost him $2 billion to refund the purchase price for SolarCity if he loses, and the Tesla shareholders suing have a credible case, but Musk is used to getting off without serious consequences.After all, he has defied courts, federal regulators, police, state and local government authorities for years with little more than a slap on the wrist.But this year things have changed, whether Elon Musk realizes it yet or not.

Nikola Corp (NKLA US) ousted founder/CEO Trevor Milton was charged in federal court today with criminal and civil fraud for lying to investors for years about “nearly every aspect of the business” to juice the stock price.This comes just two weeks after Tesla Motors (TSLA US) CEO Elon Musk defended himself in court over his role in pushing Tesla in 2016 to buy SolarCity for an insupportable $2 billion without revealing its near-bankruptcy distress in order to bail out his relatives who ran it. Tesla already paid $60 million last year to settle the case, but Musk, true to form, stubbornly resists any efforts to hold him accountable for just about anything, no matter the harm.It could cost him $2 billion to refund the purchase price for SolarCity if he loses, and the Tesla shareholders suing have a credible case, but Musk is used to getting off without serious consequences.After all, he has defied courts, federal regulators, police, state and local government authorities for years with little more than a slap on the wrist.But this year things have changed, whether Elon Musk realizes it yet or not.

Nikola's Ex CEO Trevor Milton Arrested for Lying to Investors. Some Ask, "What About Elon?"

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> is the first company to successfully commercialise EREVs (extended-range electric vehicles) in China, the Li ONE. Li ONE is a six-seat, large premium electric SUV which began volume production and deliveries in November 2019 and December 2019, respectively. In 2020, Li ONE was the best-selling new energy SUV in China with a sales volume market share of 9.7%, according to CIC. Li Auto has received approval for an HKEx secondary listing to raise $1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports. The secondary listing comes on the back of a listing on Nasdaq in July 2020 ($1.0 billion net raise at $11.50 per ADS) as well as a follow-on offering in December 2020 ($1.4 billion gross raise at $29.00 per ADS). The secondary listing also follows peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng (XPEV US)</a>, which raised net proceeds of $1.8 billion on 7 July. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> H-shares are trading -9% below the offer price largely due to the recent regulatory onslaught which has engulfed Chinese companies with exposure to the technology and education sector along with listing in the US. <div class="content-highlight">Despite rising competition from new entrants, Li Auto is delivering on its IPO promise by maintaining a market-leading share in its niche, investing in a roadmap to reduce its single model reliance, a positive gross margin and cash generation trajectory. On balance, for investors willing to brave the current regulatory-driven weak sentiment on Chinese names, Li Auto’s fundamentals and valuation are attractive, in our view. </div>

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) is the first company to successfully commercialise EREVs (extended-range electric vehicles) in China, the Li ONE. Li ONE is a six-seat, large premium electric SUV which began volume production and deliveries in November 2019 and December 2019, respectively. In 2020, Li ONE was the best-selling new energy SUV in China with a sales volume market share of 9.7%, according to CIC. Li Auto has received approval for an HKEx secondary listing to raise $1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports. The secondary listing comes on the back of a listing on Nasdaq in July 2020 ($1.0 billion net raise at $11.50 per ADS) as well as a follow-on offering in December 2020 ($1.4 billion gross raise at $29.00 per ADS). The secondary listing also follows peer, Xpeng (XPEV US), which raised net proceeds of $1.8 billion on 7 July. XPeng (9868 HK) H-shares are trading -9% below the offer price largely due to the recent regulatory onslaught which has engulfed Chinese companies with exposure to the technology and education sector along with listing in the US. Despite rising competition from new entrants, Li Auto is delivering on its IPO promise by maintaining a market-leading share in its niche, investing in a roadmap to reduce its single model reliance, a positive gross margin and cash generation trajectory. On balance, for investors willing to brave the current regulatory-driven weak sentiment on Chinese names, Li Auto’s fundamentals and valuation are attractive, in our view. 

United States

Nikola Corporation operates as a zero-emissions transportation and infrastructure solution provider. The Company is a designer and manufacturer of battery-electric and hydrogen-electric vehicles, electric vehicle drivetrains, vehicle components, energy storage systems, and hydrogen fueling station infrastructure.

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Nikola Corp (NKLA US)

Liquidity Risk Short Candidates: PureCycle, Atara Biothera, Nikola, Dutch Bros.

See model results and discussion on several liquidity risk short candidates: PureCycle Tech, Atara Biotherapeutics, Nikola Corp and Dutch Brothers,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Green Light For SPAC Listings In Singapore

A SPAC framework is a positive step for the bourse's attractiveness, so as to attract future listings, including secondary listings for home-grown...

David Blennerhassett

Nikola's Milton Just Hired Elon's Lawyers

Nikola's Trevor Milton has hired the same lawyers who defended Elon Musk in his securities fraud conviction in 2018. He might also consider ex SEC...

Vicki Bryan

Nikola's Ex CEO Trevor Milton Arrested for Lying to Investors. Some Ask, "What About Elon?"

Many of Milton's lies are very different vs tales Tesla CEO Elon Musk has told investors for years. Others seem troublingly similar. With new...

Vicki Bryan

Li Auto Secondary Listing: Volts Wagons

Li Auto has received approval for an HKEx secondary listing to raise $1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports. Li Auto’s fundamentals and...

Arun George

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