Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our flows for June 2026 and index change expectations for September 2026.</li>
<li>We see two ADDs and two DELs for September 2026, along with a few large names that could become expected ADDs if they clear the sector requirement threshold.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.
In this insight, we take a look at our flows for June 2026 and index change expectations for September 2026.
We see two ADDs and two DELs for September 2026, along with a few large names that could become expected ADDs if they clear the sector requirement threshold.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: US$900mn One-Way in Jun26; Nokia + Engie ADD in Sep26

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nokia Oyj has quietly made one of its more revealing strategic moves of 2026 by agreeing to exit its fixed wireless access business through a sale to Inseego.</li><li>On the surface, the transaction looks small: Nokia will receive roughly $20 million in stock and warrants, then make an additional $10 million investment, leaving it with about an 11% stake in Inseego.</li><li>But the structure matters more than the size.</li></ul>

Nokia Oyj has quietly made one of its more revealing strategic moves of 2026 by agreeing to exit its fixed wireless access business through a sale to Inseego.On the surface, the transaction looks small: Nokia will receive roughly $20 million in stock and warrants, then make an additional $10 million investment, leaving it with about an 11% stake in Inseego.But the structure matters more than the size.

Why Nokia FWA Exit Matters More Than The $20 Million Price Tag!

<ul><li>Nokia’s first quarter of 2026 exhibited modest overall revenue growth of 4% to EUR 4.5 billion, driven principally by strength in Network Infrastructure, which grew 6%, supported by Optical Networks achieving 20% net sales growth.</li><li>The gross margin expanded by 320 basis points to 45.5%, influenced partly by the absence of prior-year one-time charges and operational synergies realized through the Infinera acquisition.</li><li>Operating profit rose to EUR 281 million, reflecting a 200 basis point margin expansion to 6.2%.</li></ul>

Nokia’s first quarter of 2026 exhibited modest overall revenue growth of 4% to EUR 4.5 billion, driven principally by strength in Network Infrastructure, which grew 6%, supported by Optical Networks achieving 20% net sales growth.The gross margin expanded by 320 basis points to 45.5%, influenced partly by the absence of prior-year one-time charges and operational synergies realized through the Infinera acquisition.Operating profit rose to EUR 281 million, reflecting a 200 basis point margin expansion to 6.2%.

Nokia: The Infinera Acquisition Is Transforming Optical Networks—But How Big Is the Upside?

<ul><li>Nokia Corporation released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, showcasing a year of consolidation and strategic repositioning to enhance long-term value creation.</li><li>The company reported fourth-quarter net sales of EUR 6.1 billion, marking a 3% growth, with an operating profit reaching EUR 1 billion and free cash flow of EUR 0.2 billion.</li><li>For the entire year, Nokia's net sales recorded were EUR 19.9 billion, accompanied by an operating profit of EUR 2 billion, aligning closely with the company's guidance.</li></ul>

Nokia Corporation released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, showcasing a year of consolidation and strategic repositioning to enhance long-term value creation.The company reported fourth-quarter net sales of EUR 6.1 billion, marking a 3% growth, with an operating profit reaching EUR 1 billion and free cash flow of EUR 0.2 billion.For the entire year, Nokia's net sales recorded were EUR 19.9 billion, accompanied by an operating profit of EUR 2 billion, aligning closely with the company's guidance.

Nokia Is Riding the Optical Upgrade Cycle—From 400G Today to Terabit Networks Tomorrow!

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.</li>
<li>CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.</li>
<li>The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.</li>
</ul>


Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.
CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.
The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.


Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Finland

Nokia Oyj is a global communications company. The Company produces a broad range of technological devices and software, and operates networks, sales ,and communication channels worldwide.

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Nokia Oyj (NOK US)

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: US$900mn One-Way in Jun26; Nokia + Engie ADD in Sep26

We roughly see US$900mn one way flows based on the capping of ASML June 2026. Nokia and Engie lead the rankings to become ADDs in September 2026.

Afridi Reyal

Why Nokia FWA Exit Matters More Than The $20 Million Price Tag!

Nokia Oyj has quietly made one of its more revealing strategic moves of 2026 by agreeing to exit its fixed wireless access business through a sale...

Baptista Research

Nokia: The Infinera Acquisition Is Transforming Optical Networks—But How Big Is the Upside?

Nokia’s first quarter of 2026 exhibited modest overall revenue growth of 4% to EUR 4.5 billion, driven principally by strength in Network...

Baptista Research

Nokia Is Riding the Optical Upgrade Cycle—From 400G Today to Terabit Networks Tomorrow!

Nokia Corporation released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, showcasing a year of consolidation and strategic...

Baptista Research

Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Lumentum is converting constrained laser supply into margin and cash, while Coherent and Fabrinet are still funding the capacity, inventory and...

Mint Finance

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