Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits</li>
<li>Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. </li>
<li>Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. 
Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption, marking a defining moment in its trajectory as a dominant AI chipmaker.</li><li>The company reported a 69% year-over-year revenue surge to $44.1 billion, outperforming expectations despite the mid-April U.S. government ban on H20 GPU sales to China.</li><li>The data center segment remained the primary growth engine, rising 73% to $39.1 billion, driven by rising AI infrastructure demand and the adoption of its cutting-edge Blackwell architecture.</li></ul>

Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption, marking a defining moment in its trajectory as a dominant AI chipmaker.The company reported a 69% year-over-year revenue surge to $44.1 billion, outperforming expectations despite the mid-April U.S. government ban on H20 GPU sales to China.The data center segment remained the primary growth engine, rising 73% to $39.1 billion, driven by rising AI infrastructure demand and the adoption of its cutting-edge Blackwell architecture.

Nvidia’s $3.4 Trillion AI Empire Is Just Getting Started—You Won’t Believe What’s Next!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) announced 1QFY26 results. Revenue was US$44.1bn, up 69.2% YoY/12.0% QoQ, 1.8%/2.5% above Bloomberg consensus of US$43.3bn and guidance of US$43bn.</li><li>Non-GAAP GPM came in at 61.0% or 71.3% if excluding US$4.5bn H20-related charges/tax impact (vs. consensus/guidance of 71.0%/71.0%).</li><li>Quarterly revenue increased by US$4.7bn (vs. US$4.2bn in 4Q). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) announced 1QFY26 results. Revenue was US$44.1bn, up 69.2% YoY/12.0% QoQ, 1.8%/2.5% above Bloomberg consensus of US$43.3bn and guidance of US$43bn.Non-GAAP GPM came in at 61.0% or 71.3% if excluding US$4.5bn H20-related charges/tax impact (vs. consensus/guidance of 71.0%/71.0%).Quarterly revenue increased by US$4.7bn (vs. US$4.2bn in 4Q). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Nvidia’s 1Q Beat and Solid 2Q Guidance Confirm AI Demand Remains Resilient

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ</li>
<li>NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues</li>
<li>Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ
NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues
Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.


NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

<ul>
<li>Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. </li>
<li>The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen's point: "it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed". The Good Times Keep Rolling.</li>
<li>This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. 
The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen's point: "it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed". The Good Times Keep Rolling.
This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.


Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s $3.4 Trillion AI Empire Is Just Getting Started—You Won’t Believe What’s Next!

Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption,...

Baptista Research

Semiconductors - Nvidia’s 1Q Beat and Solid 2Q Guidance Confirm AI Demand Remains Resilient

Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) announced 1QFY26 results. Revenue was US$44.1bn, up 69.2% YoY/12.0% QoQ, 1.8%/2.5% above Bloomberg consensus of US$43.3bn and...

CMB International

NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China...

William Keating

Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Discontinued H20 sales to China impact Q1-Q2 earnings, but results / guidance are inline with Consensus. Stock valuation not expensive.

Nicolas Baratte

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US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

​Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s $3.4 Trillion AI Empire Is Just Getting Started—You Won’t Believe What’s Next!

Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption,...

Baptista Research

Semiconductors - Nvidia’s 1Q Beat and Solid 2Q Guidance Confirm AI Demand Remains Resilient

Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) announced 1QFY26 results. Revenue was US$44.1bn, up 69.2% YoY/12.0% QoQ, 1.8%/2.5% above Bloomberg consensus of US$43.3bn and...

CMB International

NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China...

William Keating

Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

​Discontinued H20 sales to China impact Q1-Q2 earnings, but results / guidance are inline with Consensus. Stock valuation not expensive.

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Discontinued H20 sales to China impact Q1-Q2 earnings, but results / guidance are inline with Consensus. Stock valuation not expensive.