Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. </li>
<li>At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. </li>
<li>Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  


Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA delivered another blockbuster quarter with record revenues of $30 billion, blowing well past the guided $28 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 122% YoY.</li>
<li>$5.6 billion in revenues were attributed to Singapore, making up more than 18% of overall revenues and up &gt;5 times YoY</li>
<li>What the heck is the city state doing with all of those GPUs?</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA delivered another blockbuster quarter with record revenues of $30 billion, blowing well past the guided $28 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 122% YoY.
$5.6 billion in revenues were attributed to Singapore, making up more than 18% of overall revenues and up &gt;5 times YoY
What the heck is the city state doing with all of those GPUs?


NVIDIA's >5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>News that DeepSeek's latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI's ChatGPT in  most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today. </li>
<li>DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms (META US)</a> ), using lower cost chips and less data.</li>
<li>Tech companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let's see where support for reversal rallies can be found.</li>
</ul>


News that DeepSeek's latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI's ChatGPT in  most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today. 
DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like Meta Platforms (META US) ), using lower cost chips and less data.
Tech companies like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let's see where support for reversal rallies can be found.


EQD | DeepSeek's New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s smooth return to China hits turbulence as regulators question the H20 chip’s security.</li>
<li>AMD stays below the radar; less political baggage, and could be better positioned if Nvidia is slowed.</li>
<li>AMD also gets a lift from its Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst price upgrade.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s smooth return to China hits turbulence as regulators question the H20 chip’s security.
AMD stays below the radar; less political baggage, and could be better positioned if Nvidia is slowed.
AMD also gets a lift from its Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst price upgrade.


Nvidia’s Tightrope in China Narrows, AMD Watches From the Sidelines

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA's >5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

Dr. Kim over at TSMC (allegedly?) is trying to trace all h100 & h800 shipments for the past two years. This Insight might be helpful :-)

William Keating

EQD | DeepSeek's New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

DeepSeek's latest AI release is shaking markets, tech companies like NVDA and META are plummeting, causing US Indices to follow suit. Analysis of...

Nico Rosti

Nvidia’s Tightrope in China Narrows, AMD Watches From the Sidelines

Regulators in China question Nvidia's H20 chip security, while AMD gains momentum with the Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst upgrade.

Mint Finance

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

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Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

​Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA's >5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

Dr. Kim over at TSMC (allegedly?) is trying to trace all h100 & h800 shipments for the past two years. This Insight might be helpful :-)

William Keating

EQD | DeepSeek's New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

​DeepSeek's latest AI release is shaking markets, tech companies like NVDA and META are plummeting, causing US Indices to follow suit. Analysis of...

Nico Rosti

Nvidia’s Tightrope in China Narrows, AMD Watches From the Sidelines

​Regulators in China question Nvidia's H20 chip security, while AMD gains momentum with the Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst upgrade.

Mint Finance

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

DeepSeek's latest AI release is shaking markets, tech companies like NVDA and META are plummeting, causing US Indices to follow suit. Analysis of...

Regulators in China question Nvidia's H20 chip security, while AMD gains momentum with the Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst upgrade.