Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs.</li><li>In a significant escalation, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an antitrust probe against Nvidia, claiming the chipmaker violated monopoly laws during its $7 billion acquisition of Israeli firm Mellanox Technologies.</li><li>The regulator’s preliminary findings come at a delicate moment as U.S. and Chinese officials wrap up high-stakes trade talks in Madrid.</li></ul>

The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs.In a significant escalation, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an antitrust probe against Nvidia, claiming the chipmaker violated monopoly laws during its $7 billion acquisition of Israeli firm Mellanox Technologies.The regulator’s preliminary findings come at a delicate moment as U.S. and Chinese officials wrap up high-stakes trade talks in Madrid.

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     </li>
<li>It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   </li>
<li>For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).</li>
</ul>


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     
It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   
For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).


Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

<ul>
<li>3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.</li>
<li>Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.</li>
<li>The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.
Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.
The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.


Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies &amp; landing in Taiwan. </li>
<li>He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East</li>
<li>NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.</li>
</ul>


Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies &amp; landing in Taiwan. 
He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.


NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.</li>
<li>While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.</li>
<li>I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.
While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.
I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.


The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs. In a significant...

Baptista Research

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA...

William Keating

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs. In a significant...

Baptista Research

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

​US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

​Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA...

William Keating

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...