Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>NVIDIA is the undisputed leader in the accelerated computing market, capitalizing on the explosive growth of Artificial Intelligence. Its Data Center segment has become the primary revenue and profit driver, exhibiting unprecedented growth.</li>
  <li>The company's key competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive ecosystem, built around its CUDA software platform. This creates high switching costs for developers and a significant barrier to entry for competitors, solidifying its market dominance.</li>
  <li>While the outlook is exceptionally strong, the company faces risks from geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. export controls to China, increasing competition from rivals and major customers developing in-house solutions, and a lofty valuation that demands near-perfect execution.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  NVIDIA is the undisputed leader in the accelerated computing market, capitalizing on the explosive growth of Artificial Intelligence. Its Data Center segment has become the primary revenue and profit driver, exhibiting unprecedented growth.
  The company's key competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive ecosystem, built around its CUDA software platform. This creates high switching costs for developers and a significant barrier to entry for competitors, solidifying its market dominance.
  While the outlook is exceptionally strong, the company faces risks from geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. export controls to China, increasing competition from rivals and major customers developing in-house solutions, and a lofty valuation that demands near-perfect execution.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. </li>
<li>3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   </li>
<li>The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. </li>
</ul>


2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. 
3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   
The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. 


NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.</li>
<li>Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.</li>
<li>If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.</li>
</ul>


China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.
Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.
If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.


Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs.</li><li>In a significant escalation, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an antitrust probe against Nvidia, claiming the chipmaker violated monopoly laws during its $7 billion acquisition of Israeli firm Mellanox Technologies.</li><li>The regulator’s preliminary findings come at a delicate moment as U.S. and Chinese officials wrap up high-stakes trade talks in Madrid.</li></ul>

The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs.In a significant escalation, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an antitrust probe against Nvidia, claiming the chipmaker violated monopoly laws during its $7 billion acquisition of Israeli firm Mellanox Technologies.The regulator’s preliminary findings come at a delicate moment as U.S. and Chinese officials wrap up high-stakes trade talks in Madrid.

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Primer: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) - Sep 2025

NVIDIA is the undisputed leader in the accelerated computing market, capitalizing on the explosive growth of Artificial Intelligence. Its Data...

αSK

NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs. In a significant...

Baptista Research

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Primer: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) - Sep 2025

NVIDIA is the undisputed leader in the accelerated computing market, capitalizing on the explosive growth of Artificial Intelligence. Its Data...

αSK

NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

​China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs. In a significant...

Baptista Research

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...