Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>  said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market. </li>
<li>The Trump Administration's move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.</li>
<li>Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)  said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market. 
The Trump Administration's move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.
Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.


Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.</li><li>Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.</li><li>Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.</li></ul>

Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.</li>
<li>Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.</li>
<li>The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.
Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.
The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.


Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>The semiconductor sector has been rattled by a wave of tariff escalations, with Nvidia at the center of attention.</li><li>President Donald Trump’s recent imposition of steep new tariffs—34% on imports from China and 32% on Taiwan—sent shockwaves across the global technology industry.</li><li>While semiconductors were initially exempted from the levies, the ambiguity in policy messaging and the potential for future inclusion have raised investor concerns.</li></ul>

The semiconductor sector has been rattled by a wave of tariff escalations, with Nvidia at the center of attention.President Donald Trump’s recent imposition of steep new tariffs—34% on imports from China and 32% on Taiwan—sent shockwaves across the global technology industry.While semiconductors were initially exempted from the levies, the ambiguity in policy messaging and the potential for future inclusion have raised investor concerns.

Nvidia Is Getting Hit by Tariffs—But Here’s How It Plans to Fight Back!

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

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As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

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Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Think about how good Nvidia's earnings are. It's even better than that. Think about it again. It's better still. It's that good. Jokes aside,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia Is Getting Hit by Tariffs—But Here’s How It Plans to Fight Back!

The semiconductor sector has been rattled by a wave of tariff escalations, with Nvidia at the center of attention. President Donald Trump’s recent...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

​NVIDIA Corp faces a $5.5 billion hit due to US restrictions on its H20 AI chips for China, currently selling off and looking for a bottom in the...

Nico Rosti

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Think about how good Nvidia's earnings are. It's even better than that. Think about it again. It's better still. It's that good. Jokes aside,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

​Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia Is Getting Hit by Tariffs—But Here’s How It Plans to Fight Back!

The semiconductor sector has been rattled by a wave of tariff escalations, with Nvidia at the center of attention. President Donald Trump’s recent...

Baptista Research

NVIDIA Corp faces a $5.5 billion hit due to US restrictions on its H20 AI chips for China, currently selling off and looking for a bottom in the...

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...