Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia will provide IP blocks to other semiconductor designers (hyperscalers Amazon, Google, their design partners Alchip, Mediatek) so that they can integrate their own CPU or ASIC into Nvidia’s systems.    </li>
<li>A small size RTX-Pro-Server for Enterprise to run their own AI models, AI agents. That’s “on-premise” AI. AI Data Platform, a tool to structure and train AI data and models.  </li>
<li>Mediatek is promoted to the title of “great partner”. Lots of mentions of Hon Hai / Foxconn, TSMC. No mention of Broadcom.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia will provide IP blocks to other semiconductor designers (hyperscalers Amazon, Google, their design partners Alchip, Mediatek) so that they can integrate their own CPU or ASIC into Nvidia’s systems.    
A small size RTX-Pro-Server for Enterprise to run their own AI models, AI agents. That’s “on-premise” AI. AI Data Platform, a tool to structure and train AI data and models.  
Mediatek is promoted to the title of “great partner”. Lots of mentions of Hon Hai / Foxconn, TSMC. No mention of Broadcom.


Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones

<ul>
<li>Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.</li>
<li>Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).</li>
<li>Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.</li>
</ul>


Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.


Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> stock rose over 3% Wednesday morning, after news of a reported multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with Saudi Arabia, announced during an investment forum attended by President Trump. </li>
<li>Nvidia will supply hundreds of thousands of AI chips over five years to Humain, a new Saudi AI venture backed by the $925B Public Investment Fund. </li>
<li>Bank of America raised NVDA price target to $160 from $150. A Bloomberg report suggested the UAE may buy over 1 million Nvidia AI chips under a potential U.S. deal. </li>
</ul>



NVIDIA stock rose over 3% Wednesday morning, after news of a reported multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with Saudi Arabia, announced during an investment forum attended by President Trump. 
Nvidia will supply hundreds of thousands of AI chips over five years to Humain, a new Saudi AI venture backed by the $925B Public Investment Fund. 
Bank of America raised NVDA price target to $160 from $150. A Bloomberg report suggested the UAE may buy over 1 million Nvidia AI chips under a potential U.S. deal. 


Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following $7B AI Chip Deal with Saudi Arabia

<ul>
<li>What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. </li>
<li>At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. </li>
<li>Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  


Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>  said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market. </li>
<li>The Trump Administration's move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.</li>
<li>Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)  said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market. 
The Trump Administration's move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.
Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.


Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones

Nvidia 3 major announcements at Computex: IP to support ASCI CPU designers integrate with Nvidia, Enterprise on-premise AI, data platform....

Nicolas Baratte

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following $7B AI Chip Deal with Saudi Arabia

NVIDIA stock on Wednesday surged on news of a multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with Saudi Arabia, however our models indicate the stock is very...

Nico Rosti

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

NVIDIA Corp faces a $5.5 billion hit due to US restrictions on its H20 AI chips for China, currently selling off and looking for a bottom in the...

Nico Rosti

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones

​Nvidia 3 major announcements at Computex: IP to support ASCI CPU designers integrate with Nvidia, Enterprise on-premise AI, data platform....

Nicolas Baratte

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

​News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following $7B AI Chip Deal with Saudi Arabia

​NVIDIA stock on Wednesday surged on news of a multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with Saudi Arabia, however our models indicate the stock is very...

Nico Rosti

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

​Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

​NVIDIA Corp faces a $5.5 billion hit due to US restrictions on its H20 AI chips for China, currently selling off and looking for a bottom in the...

Nico Rosti

Nvidia 3 major announcements at Computex: IP to support ASCI CPU designers integrate with Nvidia, Enterprise on-premise AI, data platform....

News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

NVIDIA stock on Wednesday surged on news of a multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with Saudi Arabia, however our models indicate the stock is very...

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

NVIDIA Corp faces a $5.5 billion hit due to US restrictions on its H20 AI chips for China, currently selling off and looking for a bottom in the...