AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.</li>
<li>The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.</li>
<li>Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.
The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.
Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.


The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s multi-year cloud service commitments jumped from $12.6B to $26B in one quarter, but only $1B is due in cash before late FY26, raising questions about the immediacy of demand.</li>
<li>Nvidia is backstopping customer infrastructure via an $860M facility lease guarantee, with only $470M escrowed; effectively transferring counterparty credit risk onto Nvidia’s balance sheet.</li>
<li>Structurally, this resembles circular financing, where customers take on debt (facilitated by Nvidia) to secure future compute capacity, enabling Nvidia to book future revenue while cash conversion lags.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s multi-year cloud service commitments jumped from $12.6B to $26B in one quarter, but only $1B is due in cash before late FY26, raising questions about the immediacy of demand.
Nvidia is backstopping customer infrastructure via an $860M facility lease guarantee, with only $470M escrowed; effectively transferring counterparty credit risk onto Nvidia’s balance sheet.
Structurally, this resembles circular financing, where customers take on debt (facilitated by Nvidia) to secure future compute capacity, enabling Nvidia to book future revenue while cash conversion lags.


How Much of Nvidia’s Demand Is Nvidia-Enabled?

<ul>
<li>Nvidia is transitioning from a GPU vendor to a full-stack systems supplier for AI infrastructure, with the Data Centre segment driven more by integrated rack-scale deployments than standalone accelerators.</li>
<li>Management positions Nvidia as the reference architecture for a “$3–4 trillion annual AI infrastructure build”, but finished goods inventories are up 90%+ amid "sold-out cloud capacity."</li>
<li>The rapid shift toward rack-scale systems introduces new ecosystem tensions, as Nvidia’s move into full system design increasingly overlaps with the domain of OEM partners.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia is transitioning from a GPU vendor to a full-stack systems supplier for AI infrastructure, with the Data Centre segment driven more by integrated rack-scale deployments than standalone accelerators.
Management positions Nvidia as the reference architecture for a “$3–4 trillion annual AI infrastructure build”, but finished goods inventories are up 90%+ amid "sold-out cloud capacity."
The rapid shift toward rack-scale systems introduces new ecosystem tensions, as Nvidia’s move into full system design increasingly overlaps with the domain of OEM partners.


Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>NVDA has $500bn revenue visibility for Blackwell and Rubin. This implies that Data Center Computing revenues will increase by ~70% in 2026.</li>
<li>Cloud capacity is fully utilized, 6-year old GPU are fully utilized. Don’t worry about depreciation theories. But the gap between capex and future revenues / profits will remain.</li>
<li>Consensus is ~20% too low for FY27 and possibly more for FY28, Stock trading below avg PEx.</li>
</ul>


NVDA has $500bn revenue visibility for Blackwell and Rubin. This implies that Data Center Computing revenues will increase by ~70% in 2026.
Cloud capacity is fully utilized, 6-year old GPU are fully utilized. Don’t worry about depreciation theories. But the gap between capex and future revenues / profits will remain.
Consensus is ~20% too low for FY27 and possibly more for FY28, Stock trading below avg PEx.


NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Performance was in line with estimates, with total revenue of $57.01B and an expanding Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 73.6%. Management issued robust Q4 revenue guidance of $65B.</li>
<li>Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's muted reaction and subsequent slide highlight the risk of unusual, synchronized cross-asset market drops, signaling a need to examine, and hedge against potential systemic vulnerability.</li>
<li>The synchronized cross-asset market drop on November 20, lacking a clear catalyst, suggests hidden systemic risk driven in part by algorithmic positioning.</li>
</ul>


Performance was in line with estimates, with total revenue of $57.01B and an expanding Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 73.6%. Management issued robust Q4 revenue guidance of $65B.
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's muted reaction and subsequent slide highlight the risk of unusual, synchronized cross-asset market drops, signaling a need to examine, and hedge against potential systemic vulnerability.
The synchronized cross-asset market drop on November 20, lacking a clear catalyst, suggests hidden systemic risk driven in part by algorithmic positioning.


4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Mint Finance

How Much of Nvidia’s Demand Is Nvidia-Enabled?

Nvidia's cloud service commitments surge to $26B, with only $1B due in cash before late FY26, raising concerns about demand and circular financing...

Mint Finance

Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

Mint Finance

NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive

NVDA. Consensus estimates for FY27 are 20% too low, with potential for even more growth in FY28. Stock is trading below average PEx.

Nicolas Baratte

4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff

NVIDIA's strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance overshadowed by systemic market reaction, highlighting potential systemic vulnerability in cross-asset...

Jay Cameron

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

​Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Mint Finance

How Much of Nvidia’s Demand Is Nvidia-Enabled?

​Nvidia's cloud service commitments surge to $26B, with only $1B due in cash before late FY26, raising concerns about demand and circular financing...

Mint Finance

Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

​Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

Mint Finance

NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive

​NVDA. Consensus estimates for FY27 are 20% too low, with potential for even more growth in FY28. Stock is trading below average PEx.

Nicolas Baratte

4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff

​NVIDIA's strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance overshadowed by systemic market reaction, highlighting potential systemic vulnerability in cross-asset...

Jay Cameron

Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Nvidia's cloud service commitments surge to $26B, with only $1B due in cash before late FY26, raising concerns about demand and circular financing...

Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

NVDA. Consensus estimates for FY27 are 20% too low, with potential for even more growth in FY28. Stock is trading below average PEx.

NVIDIA's strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance overshadowed by systemic market reaction, highlighting potential systemic vulnerability in cross-asset...