Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.</li><li>Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.</li><li>Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.</li></ul>

Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Nvidia hosted GTC 2024 this morning, showcasing its latest developments in various sectors, including healthcare, auto, and quantum computing, along with the introduction of the most powerful GPU architecture named Blackwell, featuring 208bn transistors and using a 4nm process from TSMC.</li><li>The Blackwell GPU consists of two reticle-sized chips, each with 104bn transistors, connected by NVLink 5.0 interconnects that join them seamlessly.</li><li>The first Blackwell chip is called GB200 and is planned for shipment later in 2024. When comparing to its predecessor, H100, as well as competing products from AMD, Intel, and others, the new Blackwell GPU accelerators are poised to offer a huge upgrade for AI companies.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nvidia hosted GTC 2024 this morning, showcasing its latest developments in various sectors, including healthcare, auto, and quantum computing, along with the introduction of the most powerful GPU architecture named Blackwell, featuring 208bn transistors and using a 4nm process from TSMC.The Blackwell GPU consists of two reticle-sized chips, each with 104bn transistors, connected by NVLink 5.0 interconnects that join them seamlessly.The first Blackwell chip is called GB200 and is planned for shipment later in 2024. When comparing to its predecessor, H100, as well as competing products from AMD, Intel, and others, the new Blackwell GPU accelerators are poised to offer a huge upgrade for AI companies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Nvidia’s earnings are akin to my Super Bowl.</li><li>There is no more significant event in semiconductors and AI, and each quarter, we tune into Nvidia’s results to see precisely what quarter we are in the AI hype cycle (and potentially bubble).</li><li>There is no better signpost for the entire AI ecosystem than the company making the most of the revenue so far: Nvidia.</li></ul>

Nvidia’s earnings are akin to my Super Bowl.There is no more significant event in semiconductors and AI, and each quarter, we tune into Nvidia’s results to see precisely what quarter we are in the AI hype cycle (and potentially bubble).There is no better signpost for the entire AI ecosystem than the company making the most of the revenue so far: Nvidia.

Finding the Sweet Spot: Nvidia's Goldilocks Quarter

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

<ul><li>Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.</li><li>Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.</li><li>I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.</li></ul>

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Think about how good Nvidia's earnings are. It's even better than that. Think about it again. It's better still. It's that good. Jokes aside,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semi - Nvidia GTC 2024: A Quick Take

Nvidia hosted GTC 2024 this morning, showcasing its latest developments in various sectors, including healthcare, auto, and quantum computing

CMB International

Finding the Sweet Spot: Nvidia's Goldilocks Quarter

Not too hot, not too cold: Nvidia is threading the needle with a clean result. Nvidia’s earnings are akin to my Super Bowl. There is no more...

Fabricated Knowledge

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings. Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia. I...

Fabricated Knowledge

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