Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

<ul>
<li>Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. </li>
<li>The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen's point: "it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed". The Good Times Keep Rolling.</li>
<li>This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. 
The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen's point: "it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed". The Good Times Keep Rolling.
This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.


Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>By the time this insight is published, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> will have reported earnings. Our model does not rely on fundamentals or news, so the forecast is made in advance.</li>
<li>The stock pulled back last week, mild pullback, not oversold, ideally a buy-the-dip opportunity. Support targets: 123-112</li>
<li>If the stock rallies, the rally could last 3 weeks and reach 156. Read the detailed analysis in the insight.</li>
</ul>


By the time this insight is published, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will have reported earnings. Our model does not rely on fundamentals or news, so the forecast is made in advance.
The stock pulled back last week, mild pullback, not oversold, ideally a buy-the-dip opportunity. Support targets: 123-112
If the stock rallies, the rally could last 3 weeks and reach 156. Read the detailed analysis in the insight.


All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to attend the COMPUTEX Taipei International Computer Exhibition.  </li>
<li>Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues expanding its workforce, recently opening over a thousand job vacancies globally.  </li>
<li>Throughout his speech, Huang repeatedly mentioned Taiwan. He opened with “Hello Taiwan,” noting that both of his parents were present in the audience, highlighting his personal connection to Taiwan.  </li>
</ul>


NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to attend the COMPUTEX Taipei International Computer Exhibition.  
Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues expanding its workforce, recently opening over a thousand job vacancies globally.  
Throughout his speech, Huang repeatedly mentioned Taiwan. He opened with “Hello Taiwan,” noting that both of his parents were present in the audience, highlighting his personal connection to Taiwan.  


Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location

<ul>
<li>Nvidia will provide IP blocks to other semiconductor designers (hyperscalers Amazon, Google, their design partners Alchip, Mediatek) so that they can integrate their own CPU or ASIC into Nvidia’s systems.    </li>
<li>A small size RTX-Pro-Server for Enterprise to run their own AI models, AI agents. That’s “on-premise” AI. AI Data Platform, a tool to structure and train AI data and models.  </li>
<li>Mediatek is promoted to the title of “great partner”. Lots of mentions of Hon Hai / Foxconn, TSMC. No mention of Broadcom.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia will provide IP blocks to other semiconductor designers (hyperscalers Amazon, Google, their design partners Alchip, Mediatek) so that they can integrate their own CPU or ASIC into Nvidia’s systems.    
A small size RTX-Pro-Server for Enterprise to run their own AI models, AI agents. That’s “on-premise” AI. AI Data Platform, a tool to structure and train AI data and models.  
Mediatek is promoted to the title of “great partner”. Lots of mentions of Hon Hai / Foxconn, TSMC. No mention of Broadcom.


Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Discontinued H20 sales to China impact Q1-Q2 earnings, but results / guidance are inline with Consensus. Stock valuation not expensive.

Nicolas Baratte

All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets

NVIDIA Corp's earnings are in focus: many expect high volatility post-earnings. In regard to that, our model sees support targets at 123-112 and...

Nico Rosti

Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang visits Taiwan for COMPUTEX Taipei, emphasizes personal connection and company's global expansion with over a thousand job...

Patrick Liao

Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones

Nvidia 3 major announcements at Computex: IP to support ASCI CPU designers integrate with Nvidia, Enterprise on-premise AI, data platform....

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

​Discontinued H20 sales to China impact Q1-Q2 earnings, but results / guidance are inline with Consensus. Stock valuation not expensive.

Nicolas Baratte

All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets

NVIDIA Corp's earnings are in focus: many expect high volatility post-earnings. In regard to that, our model sees support targets at 123-112 and...

Nico Rosti

Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location

​NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang visits Taiwan for COMPUTEX Taipei, emphasizes personal connection and company's global expansion with over a thousand job...

Patrick Liao

Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones

​Nvidia 3 major announcements at Computex: IP to support ASCI CPU designers integrate with Nvidia, Enterprise on-premise AI, data platform....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Discontinued H20 sales to China impact Q1-Q2 earnings, but results / guidance are inline with Consensus. Stock valuation not expensive.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang visits Taiwan for COMPUTEX Taipei, emphasizes personal connection and company's global expansion with over a thousand job...

Nvidia 3 major announcements at Computex: IP to support ASCI CPU designers integrate with Nvidia, Enterprise on-premise AI, data platform....