AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BofA now sees ABF deficits of 7%/14%/19% in 2026–28, while Goldman is far more aggressive at 14%/34%/51% from 2H26 through 2028.</li>
<li>Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and ATS are all seeing AI, server-CPU and networking demand tighten advanced-substrate capacity, with new expansion increasingly backed by customer commitments.</li>
<li>The shortage is harder to solve than headline capacity additions imply because larger, higher-layer packages consume more processing time and qualify at lower initial yields.</li>
</ul>


BofA now sees ABF deficits of 7%/14%/19% in 2026–28, while Goldman is far more aggressive at 14%/34%/51% from 2H26 through 2028.
Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and ATS are all seeing AI, server-CPU and networking demand tighten advanced-substrate capacity, with new expansion increasingly backed by customer commitments.
The shortage is harder to solve than headline capacity additions imply because larger, higher-layer packages consume more processing time and qualify at lower initial yields.


Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Chips &amp; Memory is now the largest theme in active Global funds, at 9.70% of the average portfolio versus 8.96% for Hyperscalers.</li>
<li>AI Build-out accounts for 24.4% of the average fund, well ahead of AI Adoption at 14.7%.</li>
<li>Ownership is spreading into memory stocks, but both leading themes remain underweight the benchmark. Rising exposure does not represent a uniform buying wave</li>
</ul>


Chips &amp; Memory is now the largest theme in active Global funds, at 9.70% of the average portfolio versus 8.96% for Hyperscalers.
AI Build-out accounts for 24.4% of the average fund, well ahead of AI Adoption at 14.7%.
Ownership is spreading into memory stocks, but both leading themes remain underweight the benchmark. Rising exposure does not represent a uniform buying wave


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NVDA has $500bn revenue visibility for Blackwell and Rubin. This implies that Data Center Computing revenues will increase by ~70% in 2026.</li>
<li>Cloud capacity is fully utilized, 6-year old GPU are fully utilized. Don’t worry about depreciation theories. But the gap between capex and future revenues / profits will remain.</li>
<li>Consensus is ~20% too low for FY27 and possibly more for FY28, Stock trading below avg PEx.</li>
</ul>


NVDA has $500bn revenue visibility for Blackwell and Rubin. This implies that Data Center Computing revenues will increase by ~70% in 2026.
Cloud capacity is fully utilized, 6-year old GPU are fully utilized. Don’t worry about depreciation theories. But the gap between capex and future revenues / profits will remain.
Consensus is ~20% too low for FY27 and possibly more for FY28, Stock trading below avg PEx.


NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Artificial intelligence investment is steadily shifting from individual chip purchases to building complete AI ecosystems, and Nvidia appears determined to lead that transition.</li><li>The company's planned $1 billion investment in NAVER forms part of a much larger $10 billion AI infrastructure initiative alongside Brookfield that aims to accelerate South Korea's sovereign AI ambitions.</li><li>The project will expand NAVER's AI factory at its GAK Sejong hyperscale data centre from 55 megawatts to 200 megawatts, while laying the groundwork for a future gigawatt-scale deployment.</li></ul>

Artificial intelligence investment is steadily shifting from individual chip purchases to building complete AI ecosystems, and Nvidia appears determined to lead that transition.The company's planned $1 billion investment in NAVER forms part of a much larger $10 billion AI infrastructure initiative alongside Brookfield that aims to accelerate South Korea's sovereign AI ambitions.The project will expand NAVER's AI factory at its GAK Sejong hyperscale data centre from 55 megawatts to 200 megawatts, while laying the groundwork for a future gigawatt-scale deployment.

Nvidia’s $1 Billion Naver Move Could Redefine The Next Wave Of AI Infrastructure!

Independent Fund Manager, Swaen Capital

Swaen Capital

Independent Fund Manager

Swaen Capital is a Singapore based licensed independent fund manager with an open architecture, a non bias financial platform creating access to the best custodians and investment managers. Our focus lies within the wealth management business, covering client relationships, financial planning, advisory, as well as discretionary portfolio management. We have developed strategic alliances with other leading independent firms to complement and extend our offerings to clients (global hedge fund research capability, alternative investment offerings, corporate finance, fund structuring & administration, etc). Our know-how, extensive global network and long standing presence in Asia allows us to provide a global footprint and at the same time enables us to capitalize on regional opportunities.

<ul>
<li>The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).</li>
<li>Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.</li>
<li>Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.</li>
</ul>


The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).
Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.
Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.


Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

ABF capacity is expanding, yet shortages may worsen. We examine why CPUs, bigger packages and customer-backed capex are tightening supply, and...

Mint Finance

The AI Build-Out Reshapes Global Funds

Chips & Memory has overtaken Hyperscalers as the largest theme in active Global funds. We examine the shift towards AI Build-out, growing memory...

Steven Holden

NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive

NVDA. Consensus estimates for FY27 are 20% too low, with potential for even more growth in FY28. Stock is trading below average PEx.

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s $1 Billion Naver Move Could Redefine The Next Wave Of AI Infrastructure!

Artificial intelligence investment is steadily shifting from individual chip purchases to building complete AI ecosystems, and Nvidia appears...

Baptista Research

Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and...

Swaen Capital

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

ABF capacity is expanding, yet shortages may worsen. We examine why CPUs, bigger packages and customer-backed capex are tightening supply, and...

Mint Finance

The AI Build-Out Reshapes Global Funds

Chips & Memory has overtaken Hyperscalers as the largest theme in active Global funds. We examine the shift towards AI Build-out, growing memory...

Steven Holden

NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive

​NVDA. Consensus estimates for FY27 are 20% too low, with potential for even more growth in FY28. Stock is trading below average PEx.

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s $1 Billion Naver Move Could Redefine The Next Wave Of AI Infrastructure!

Artificial intelligence investment is steadily shifting from individual chip purchases to building complete AI ecosystems, and Nvidia appears...

Baptista Research

Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and...

Swaen Capital

NVDA. Consensus estimates for FY27 are 20% too low, with potential for even more growth in FY28. Stock is trading below average PEx.