TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/parade-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6987:1" rel="noopener">Parade Technologies (4966 TT)</a> is a high-speed mixed-signal fabless semiconductor company that designs, develops, and sells next-generation high-speed interface, display and touch solutions for computing, consumer, and handset markets. 
This is a high-quality tech company, with significant revenue growth and earnings momentum, generating returns well above its cost of capital, a net cash balance sheet, and an attractive sustainable 2%+ dividend yield. 
Although current valuation levels are above historical average levels, and fair at best, further revenue growth expectation upgrades coupled with fair gross margin expansion forecasts, and a management team confident of having secured sufficient manufacturing capacity to address exceptionally strong end-product demand, makes the continuation of the earnings upgrade cycle seem probable, which in turn should continue to be a positive share price catalyst. Parade Technologies is also expected to see large passive inflows during November 2021 following the MSCI November 2021 Semi-Annual Index Review.

Parade Technologies (4966 TT) is a high-speed mixed-signal fabless semiconductor company that designs, develops, and sells next-generation high-speed interface, display and touch solutions for computing, consumer, and handset markets. 
This is a high-quality tech company, with significant revenue growth and earnings momentum, generating returns well above its cost of capital, a net cash balance sheet, and an attractive sustainable 2%+ dividend yield. 
Although current valuation levels are above historical average levels, and fair at best, further revenue growth expectation upgrades coupled with fair gross margin expansion forecasts, and a management team confident of having secured sufficient manufacturing capacity to address exceptionally strong end-product demand, makes the continuation of the earnings upgrade cycle seem probable, which in turn should continue to be a positive share price catalyst. Parade Technologies is also expected to see large passive inflows during November 2021 following the MSCI November 2021 Semi-Annual Index Review.

Parade Technologies: Further Revenue Growth Upgrades, and Dividends, Should Support Valuation

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>Nvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.</li>
<li>Investors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.</li>
<li>Due to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.
Investors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.
Due to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.


Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>NVIDIA has had a phenomenal runup in the stock price over the past quarter with investors actually wondering if the company has any further steam left.</li><li>The company’s financial performance in the quarter was rock solid with record revenues in both hyperscale cloud and industrial enterprise and a year-on-year growth of 68%.</li><li>Given the recent runup of the stock, we are adopting a conservative approach on NVIDIA and we give it a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

NVIDIA has had a phenomenal runup in the stock price over the past quarter with investors actually wondering if the company has any further steam left.The company’s financial performance in the quarter was rock solid with record revenues in both hyperscale cloud and industrial enterprise and a year-on-year growth of 68%.Given the recent runup of the stock, we are adopting a conservative approach on NVIDIA and we give it a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Virtuous circle themes of Vision Fund IPOs, ongoing buybacks/MBOs and Alibaba expansion have been replaced by vicious circle narratives of China regulation, the reality of weak liquidity events and another pause in returns to shareholders. The net result is Softbank trades at a similar price and discount to what it did in September last year even as NASDAQ has climbed 25%. The sell off in Softbank shares since Q4 results in May was initially driven by disappointment on a buyback but the discount has stabilized and recent weakness reflects erosion in the underlying value/share.

Virtuous circle themes of Vision Fund IPOs, ongoing buybacks/MBOs and Alibaba expansion have been replaced by vicious circle narratives of China regulation, the reality of weak liquidity events and another pause in returns to shareholders. The net result is Softbank trades at a similar price and discount to what it did in September last year even as NASDAQ has climbed 25%. The sell off in Softbank shares since Q4 results in May was initially driven by disappointment on a buyback but the discount has stabilized and recent weakness reflects erosion in the underlying value/share.     

Softbank Group - The Great Unwinding Has Shifted from the Discount to Underlying Value

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Intel 3Q21: Delusions of a Madman

If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible. Like believing Intel is poised to grow...

Aaron Gabin

Parade Technologies: Further Revenue Growth Upgrades, and Dividends, Should Support Valuation

In this insight, I take a deep-dive analysis into fabless IC design house, Parade Technologies, its industry value chain, current valuation levels,...

Wium Malan, CFA

Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever

Nvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models. Investors' focus is usually put on...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

NVIDIA Corporation - Investment Thesis

NVIDIA has had a phenomenal runup in the stock price over the past quarter with investors actually wondering if the company has any further steam...

Baptista Research

Softbank Group - The Great Unwinding Has Shifted from the Discount to Underlying Value

Virtuous circle themes have been replaced by vicious circle narratives and share price weakness is now driven by declines in asset value with BABA...

Kirk Boodry

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