Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV, most of which are themselves rather overvalued in our opinion. First up, we examine Arm which is seeing a lot of pushback against its potential acquisition by Nvidia.

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV, most of which are themselves rather overvalued in our opinion. First up, we examine Arm which is seeing a lot of pushback against its potential acquisition by Nvidia.

Softbank – Looking at the NAV Components - ARM

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Pat Gelsinger took the helm at Intel last week after a decade-long hiatus. In a letter to employees, he reiterated that this was his dream job and set out four priorities, namely product leadership, flawless execution, faster innovation and a reignition of the company's culture. As priorities go, these are standard, off the shelf cookie cutter imperatives that could be used by the incoming CEO of almost any company and tell us little or nothing about the actual direction Intel will take. Intel has the potential to be the technology turnaround story of the decade if not this century. If Gelsinger plays his cards right, Intel's market cap could quadruple to $1 trillion by 2026. Getting there will depend on Gelsinger implementing three key strategies. Here's what we think they are.

Pat Gelsinger took the helm at Intel last week after a decade-long hiatus. In a letter to employees, he reiterated that this was his dream job and set out four priorities, namely product leadership, flawless execution, faster innovation and a reignition of the company's culture. As priorities go, these are standard, off the shelf cookie cutter imperatives that could be used by the incoming CEO of almost any company and tell us little or nothing about the actual direction Intel will take. Intel has the potential to be the technology turnaround story of the decade if not this century. If Gelsinger plays his cards right, Intel's market cap could quadruple to $1 trillion by 2026. Getting there will depend on Gelsinger implementing three key strategies. Here's what we think they are.

Intel. Reaching A $1 Trillion Market Cap In Five Years Depends On Three Key Strategies

We have theorised previously that the upgraded Switch that everyone expects from Nintendo could utilise graphics partner, Nvidia’s DLSS technology. This could help the company close the gap with Sony and Microsoft and could have a variety of other implications which we discuss below.

We have theorised previously that the upgraded Switch that everyone expects from Nintendo could utilise graphics partner, Nvidia’s DLSS technology. This could help the company close the gap with Sony and Microsoft and could have a variety of other implications which we discuss below.

Nintendo – DLSS Developments Have Implications for Switch “Pro”

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

SmartKarma Insight Providers Jim Handey and Will Keating have done excellent work detailing the Intel backstory, and outlining the current problems, I wanted to highlight the difficulty of the decisions facing Gelsinger, and the fact that while he has time to execute (his pay package will pay him  &gt;$100M if Intel’s stock is up 200% in 5 years), he doesn’t have the best track record as a CEO. We think a split up of Intel with the US government helping to fund manufacturing may be the best option for Intel. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

SmartKarma Insight Providers Jim Handey and Will Keating have done excellent work detailing the Intel backstory, and outlining the current problems, I wanted to highlight the difficulty of the decisions facing Gelsinger, and the fact that while he has time to execute (his pay package will pay him  &gt;$100M if Intel’s stock is up 200% in 5 years), he doesn’t have the best track record as a CEO. We think a split up of Intel with the US government helping to fund manufacturing may be the best option for Intel. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Intel: Are We Sure Gelsinger Is the Best Choice? Maybe Its Time for a Government Bailout.

President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Intel's change in CEOs will likely result in changes in the company, such as selling off unprofitable acquisitions.  How will this impact the company's NSG memory products.   I would guess that Intel might decide to accelerate its sale of its NAND flash operations to SK hynix.  However, because of the strategic importance of the next generation server processors to compete against AMD.  I think it is much less likely that the company would sell its Optane products at this time.

Intel's change in CEOs will likely result in changes in the company, such as selling off unprofitable acquisitions.  How will this impact the company's NSG memory products.   I would guess that Intel might decide to accelerate its sale of its NAND flash operations to SK hynix.  However, because of the strategic importance of the next generation server processors to compete against AMD.  I think it is much less likely that the company would sell its Optane products at this time.

Intel CEO Change:  Implications for Company's Memory Products

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Softbank – Looking at the NAV Components - ARM

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV starting with Arm

Mio Kato

Intel. Reaching A $1 Trillion Market Cap In Five Years Depends On Three Key Strategies

Intel has the potential to be the turn around story of the decade. A $1 trillion market cap is achievable within 5 years, but it depends on the...

William Keating

Nintendo – DLSS Developments Have Implications for Switch “Pro”

We examine recent developments for Nvidia's DLSS technology and consider the implications for the expected Switch "Pro", including for third party...

Mio Kato

Intel: Are We Sure Gelsinger Is the Best Choice? Maybe Its Time for a Government Bailout.

Pat Gelsinger is being hailed as the perfect fit for Intel CEO, but his track record managing VMWare hasn't generated good returns for investors.

Aaron Gabin

Intel CEO Change: Implications for Company's Memory Products

Intel's change in CEOs will likely result in changes in the company, such as selling off unprofitable acquisitions. How will this impact the...

Thomas Coughlin

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