Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Following the appointment of Lisa Su as CEO in 2014, AMD has staged a stunning turnaround headlined by its Ryzen series of consumer-focused processors. Its recent announcement on Zen 3 cements this and raises questions for both Intel and Nividia as the (formerly?) dominant players in their respective markets. It also has implications for the Arm acquisition, which was on shaky ground already, and that is before even considering what a Xilinx acquisition could mean for the industry.

Following the appointment of Lisa Su as CEO in 2014, AMD has staged a stunning turnaround headlined by its Ryzen series of consumer-focused processors. Its recent announcement on Zen 3 cements this and raises questions for both Intel and Nividia as the (formerly?) dominant players in their respective markets. It also has implications for the Arm acquisition, which was on shaky ground already, and that is before even considering what a Xilinx acquisition could mean for the industry.

Softbank – How Does AMD’s Resurgence and Xilinx Deal Impact the Nvidia-Arm Deal?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

The much-anticipated acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">Arm</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank</a> was formally <a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for-40-billion-creating-worlds-premier-computing-company-for-the-age-of-ai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel's</a> data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process.

The much-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm from Softbank was formally announced on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on Intel's data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process. 

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

So the Arm sale is finally here, as is the $40bn that Softbank was looking for… sort of. We had commented previously that we felt Softbank’s mark for Arm was optimistic (this could be debated now but we actually feel this acquisition lends credence to this view), the acquisition would probably be heavy on the share component, and that exclusion of Arm’s IoT business from the deal would be a no-confidence vote from Nvidia and a repudiation of Son’s “Vision”. On the latter point we believe we were correct.

So the Arm sale is finally here, as is the $40bn that Softbank was looking for… sort of. We had commented previously that we felt Softbank’s mark for Arm was optimistic (this could be debated now but we actually feel this acquisition lends credence to this view), the acquisition would probably be heavy on the share component, and that exclusion of Arm’s IoT business from the deal would be a no-confidence vote from Nvidia and a repudiation of Son’s “Vision”. On the latter point we believe we were correct.

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

Sold! Softbank is said to be closing in on a deal to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-plc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arm Holdings (ARM LN)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> for more than $40 billion in cash and stock in a deal that could be announced as soon as Monday, according to reports out today by <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-nearing-deal-to-sell-arm-holdings-to-nvidia-for-more-than-40-billion-11599928360?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Wall Street Journal</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6bfe40a5-2426-4743-98cd-6fed9dd01b98" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Financial Times</a>.
This finally may be some good news for Softbank's investors, shaken by news last week that it had launched a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">massive options program so large it helped move markets</a> on stocks it just bought. 
This was funded with cash Softbank had said it must protect against conditions too risky to allow it to execute promised stock buybacks and debt repayment to repair its damaged balance sheet (read more in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/softbank-s-son-feeling-the-force-with-options-funded-with-cash-it-had-pledged-to-protect" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Softbank's Son "Feeling The Force" With Options Funded With Cash It Had Pledged To Protect</a> on 9/8/20).
I warned last week Softbank had deliberately withheld and misrepresented material information about such a dramatic change in strategy direction and risk in its earnings presentation to investors just weeks ago.
On Saturday, Softbank's top investors went straight to the top to find out why—the answer is troubling, but not surprising.
<div class="content-highlight">
Read on for Bond Angle commentary.
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Sold! Softbank is said to be closing in on a deal to sell Arm Holdings (ARM LN) to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) for more than $40 billion in cash and stock in a deal that could be announced as soon as Monday, according to reports out today by The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.
This finally may be some good news for Softbank's investors, shaken by news last week that it had launched a massive options program so large it helped move markets on stocks it just bought. 
This was funded with cash Softbank had said it must protect against conditions too risky to allow it to execute promised stock buybacks and debt repayment to repair its damaged balance sheet (read more in Softbank's Son "Feeling The Force" With Options Funded With Cash It Had Pledged To Protect on 9/8/20).
I warned last week Softbank had deliberately withheld and misrepresented material information about such a dramatic change in strategy direction and risk in its earnings presentation to investors just weeks ago.
On Saturday, Softbank's top investors went straight to the top to find out why—the answer is troubling, but not surprising.

Read on for Bond Angle commentary.


Softbank Wrapping up Arm Sale While Wrestling With Alarmed Investors

Softbank looks set to continue its transition into the ultimate momentum fund as PM Masa’s scrabble bag looks set to get a workout. Softbank Group, after previously securitising shares in its domestic telco subsidiary is now further selling down its stake to raise cash. The question is for what?

Softbank looks set to continue its transition into the ultimate momentum fund as PM Masa’s scrabble bag looks set to get a workout. Softbank Group, after previously securitising shares in its domestic telco subsidiary is now further selling down its stake to raise cash. The question is for what?

Softbank – PM Masa Raising Cash From the Dusty Telco

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Softbank – How Does AMD’s Resurgence and Xilinx Deal Impact the Nvidia-Arm Deal?

We consider the implications of AMD's latest CPU and GPU developments, as well as its move to acquire Xilinx on other competitors such as Nvidia...

Mio Kato

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

The long-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm Holdings (ARM LN)

William Keating

Softbank – Interpreting the Arm Sale

So the Arm sale is finally here, as is the $40bn that Softbank was looking for… sort of. We had commented previously that we felt Softbank’s mark...

Mio Kato

Softbank Wrapping up Arm Sale While Wrestling With Alarmed Investors

Sold! Softbank has agreed to sell Arm Holdings (ARM LN) to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) for more than $40 billion in cash and stock in a deal that could...

Vicki Bryan

Softbank – PM Masa Raising Cash From the Dusty Telco

Softbank looks set to continue its transition into the ultimate momentum fund as PM Masa’s scrabble bag looks set to get a workout. Softbank Group,...

Mio Kato

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