Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.</li>
<li>Chinese open-source AI models offer a more secure, efficient, and lower cost alternative to Chat GPT -5 , Claude 4.5 Sonnet, and other U.S. LLMs.  </li>
<li>We believe that there will be a turning point when investors will realize that the Chinese open-source AI models have undercut the premise of U.S. global dominance of AI.</li>
</ul>


Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.
Chinese open-source AI models offer a more secure, efficient, and lower cost alternative to Chat GPT -5 , Claude 4.5 Sonnet, and other U.S. LLMs.  
We believe that there will be a turning point when investors will realize that the Chinese open-source AI models have undercut the premise of U.S. global dominance of AI.


CHINA'S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jst-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39885:1" rel="noopener">JST Group (6687 HK)</a> is China’s largest e-commerce SaaS ERP provider. It is seeking to raise HK$2,086 million (US$268 million).</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jst-group-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:205203" rel="noopener">JST Group IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive in the context of the revenue growth.</li>
</ul>



JST Group (6687 HK) is China’s largest e-commerce SaaS ERP provider. It is seeking to raise HK$2,086 million (US$268 million).
I previously discussed the IPO in JST Group IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive in the context of the revenue growth.


Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Fed's "risk management cut" and a dovish outlook of 2 more cuts in 2025 are driving foreign flows back to Asia. US$11.5bn inflows in September till date underscores the sentiment.</li>
<li>Korea (US$4.94bn) and Taiwan (US$7.5bn) grabbed the Asian flows entirely, driven by the rejuvenated AI capex theme. India (-US$904m) continues to be sold, though the selling pace has diminished.</li>
<li>FIIs bought Indonesia (US$672m) in August and sold almost identical amount in Thailand. Philippines, despite being cheap and having a few sectors with upward earnings inflection, continues to be sold.</li>
</ul>


Fed's "risk management cut" and a dovish outlook of 2 more cuts in 2025 are driving foreign flows back to Asia. US$11.5bn inflows in September till date underscores the sentiment.
Korea (US$4.94bn) and Taiwan (US$7.5bn) grabbed the Asian flows entirely, driven by the rejuvenated AI capex theme. India (-US$904m) continues to be sold, though the selling pace has diminished.
FIIs bought Indonesia (US$672m) in August and sold almost identical amount in Thailand. Philippines, despite being cheap and having a few sectors with upward earnings inflection, continues to be sold.


Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Come Roaring Back in September; India, ASEAN Still Getting Sold

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

Kingsoft Cloud Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HSTECH index on the verge of breaking through its Deepsek high</li>
<li>The market is again rewarding AI and cloud infrastructure spending</li>
<li>We add some names to benefit from this ongoing trend</li>
</ul>


HSTECH index on the verge of breaking through its Deepsek high
The market is again rewarding AI and cloud infrastructure spending
We add some names to benefit from this ongoing trend


Tactical Trading – Adding AI Infrastructure to the China Tech Trade

United States

Oracle Corporation supplies software for enterprise information management. The Company offers databases and relational servers, application development and decision support tools, and enterprise business applications. Oracle's software runs on network computers, personal digital assistants, set-top devices, PCs, workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and massively parallel computers.

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Oracle Corp (ORCL US)

CHINA'S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.

David Mudd

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

JST Group (6687 HK): Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive in the context of the revenue growth.

Arun George

Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Come Roaring Back in September; India, ASEAN Still Getting Sold

Fed's dovish outlook drives foreign flows back to Asia, with KR & TW leading the way while India sees continued selling. Indonesia bought,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tactical Trading – Adding AI Infrastructure to the China Tech Trade

HSTECH index showing increased momentum as market approaches Deepseek high. We look at some AI infrastructure beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CHINA'S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.

David Mudd

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

JST Group (6687 HK): Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive in the context of the revenue growth.

Arun George

Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Come Roaring Back in September; India, ASEAN Still Getting Sold

​Fed's dovish outlook drives foreign flows back to Asia, with KR & TW leading the way while India sees continued selling. Indonesia bought,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tactical Trading – Adding AI Infrastructure to the China Tech Trade

​HSTECH index showing increased momentum as market approaches Deepseek high. We look at some AI infrastructure beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Fed's dovish outlook drives foreign flows back to Asia, with KR & TW leading the way while India sees continued selling. Indonesia bought,...

HSTECH index showing increased momentum as market approaches Deepseek high. We look at some AI infrastructure beneficiaries