Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.</li>
<li>What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.</li>
<li>The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.</li>
</ul>


Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.
What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.
The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.


Evolution Four Years Later: The Earnings Thesis Worked. The Multiple Did Not.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.</li>
<li>We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming</li>
<li>Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.</li>
</ul>


Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.
We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming
Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.


Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

mportant price support levels previously highlighted have held strong, including the 3200-3230 level on the S&amp;P 500, 10,855 on the Nasdaq 100, and $145/the 200-day MA on the Russell 2000 (IWM). Additionally, both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are breaking out from their bullish falling wedge patterns that have been taking shape since the early-September highs. These bullish inflections are encouraging and, combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy, lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are likely in.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Solar Energy, Fuel Cells/Lithium Batteries, and Software, Customer Relationship Mgt.

mportant price support levels previously highlighted have held strong, including the 3200-3230 level on the S&amp;P 500, 10,855 on the Nasdaq 100, and $145/the 200-day MA on the Russell 2000 (IWM). Additionally, both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are breaking out from their bullish falling wedge patterns that have been taking shape since the early-September highs. These bullish inflections are encouraging and, combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy, lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are likely in.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Solar Energy, Fuel Cells/Lithium Batteries, and Software, Customer Relationship Mgt.

The S&amp;P 500 is holding above 3000 and the 200-day MA breakout level. As long as the S&amp;P 500 is above this support level it tells us the bulls are in control. If there is a break below 3000, the next support levels to watch would be 2980 followed by the much bigger 2934.49 (the 61.8% Fib retracement) support level. Similarly, breakouts in the Dow Jones Industrials, small-caps (Russell 2000), mid-caps (Russell Mid Cap, S&amp;P 400), and the MSCI ACWI have held strong and all of these indexes show RS improvement. This is bullish as it indicates improving breadth.In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary: Sporting Goods/Leisure Products, Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Retailers, Discount/Variety, and Retailers, Sporting Goods.

The S&amp;P 500 is holding above 3000 and the 200-day MA breakout level. As long as the S&amp;P 500 is above this support level it tells us the bulls are in control. If there is a break below 3000, the next support levels to watch would be 2980 followed by the much bigger 2934.49 (the 61.8% Fib retracement) support level. Similarly, breakouts in the Dow Jones Industrials, small-caps (Russell 2000), mid-caps (Russell Mid Cap, S&amp;P 400), and the MSCI ACWI have held strong and all of these indexes show RS improvement. This is bullish as it indicates improving breadth.In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary: Sporting Goods/Leisure Products, Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Retailers, Discount/Variety, and Retailers, Sporting Goods.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Remain In Control

United States

PENN Entertainment, Inc. owns and operates casinos, hotels, and racetracks facilities. The Company offers an integrated entertainment, sports content, online sports betting, and casino gaming solutions. PENN Entertainment serves customers in the United States and Canada.

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PENN Entertainment (PENN US)

Evolution Four Years Later: The Earnings Thesis Worked. The Multiple Did Not.

Four years after our 2022 Evolution thesis, earnings broadly delivered as expected, but regulation, player geography and valuation exposed what the...

Urbem Capital

Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, & the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at its 200-day MA, we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

We are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Correction Over?

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary & Technology: CD-24 Casinos & Gaming, Small-Cap,...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Remain In Control

The S&P 500 is holding above 3000 and the 200-day MA breakout level. As long as the S&P 500 is above this support level it tells us the...

Vermilion Research

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