IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a> scored an own goal by failing to provide an update on the balance sheet in the update on 13 February. The results are next week.   </li>
<li>There is a whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding potential fines and Star is in desperate need to recapitalise its balance sheet to avoid breaching covenants. </li>
<li>Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the details of its equity raise are disclosed.</li>
</ul>



Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) scored an own goal by failing to provide an update on the balance sheet in the update on 13 February. The results are next week.   
There is a whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding potential fines and Star is in desperate need to recapitalise its balance sheet to avoid breaching covenants. 
Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the details of its equity raise are disclosed.


Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Although lesser-known, this Swedish company dominates one of the most lucrative segments of the global casino industry.</li>
<li>In our view, it is probably the only investable casino company, and despite its size, still has a massive growth runway ahead.</li>
<li>Our DCF model implies a 15%-20% total return for the company's long-term shareholders.</li>
</ul>


Although lesser-known, this Swedish company dominates one of the most lucrative segments of the global casino industry.
In our view, it is probably the only investable casino company, and despite its size, still has a massive growth runway ahead.
Our DCF model implies a 15%-20% total return for the company's long-term shareholders.


Evolution Gaming: The World's Largest Casino, Which You Probably Never Heard Of

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the March review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</p><p>There are 4 additions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nxp-semiconductors-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9801:1" rel="noopener">Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penn-national-gaming-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5588:1" rel="noopener">Penn National Gaming (PENN US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/generac-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16223:1" rel="noopener">Generac Holdings (GNRC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caesars-entertainment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15532:1" rel="noopener">Caesars Entertainment (CZR US)</a>. To balance that out, there are 4 deletions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flowserve-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20555:1" rel="noopener">Flowserve Corp (FLS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sl-green-realty-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1548:1" rel="noopener">Sl Green Realty (SLG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xerox-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17585:1" rel="noopener">Xerox Corp (XRX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vontier-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28857:1" rel="noopener">Vontier Corp (VNT US)</a>.</p><p>We estimate one-way turnover will be around US$22.4bn and the funding trade will see selling on a lot of the current index constituents.</p><p>The biggest impact of the changes will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nxp-semiconductors-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9801:1" rel="noopener">Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)</a> where we estimate passive funds will need to buy around 11 days of ADV on the stock. The impact on the other stocks is much lower due to the move between the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> and the S&amp;P Mid Cap 400 indices.</p>

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the March review for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.There are 4 additions - Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US), Penn National Gaming (PENN US), Generac Holdings (GNRC US) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR US). To balance that out, there are 4 deletions - Flowserve Corp (FLS US), Sl Green Realty (SLG US), Xerox Corp (XRX US) and Vontier Corp (VNT US).We estimate one-way turnover will be around US$22.4bn and the funding trade will see selling on a lot of the current index constituents.The biggest impact of the changes will be on Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US) where we estimate passive funds will need to buy around 11 days of ADV on the stock. The impact on the other stocks is much lower due to the move between the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) and the S&amp;P Mid Cap 400 indices.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: NXPI Is the One to Watch

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>On Friday, the S&amp;P Dow Jones Global Index team <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20210312-1336360/1336360_march2021-5146-shuf-pr.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> changes to the S&amp;P500 Index. </p><div><div><div><blockquote>
<p>NEW YORK, March 12, 2021: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will make the following index adjustments to the S&amp;P 500, S&amp;P 100, S&amp;P MidCap 400 and S&amp;P SmallCap 600 to ensure each index is more representative of its market capitalization range. The changes will be effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, March 22, 2021 to coincide with the quarterly rebalance:</p>
<p>NXP Semiconductors NV (NASD:NXPI) will replace Flowserve Corp. (NYSE:FLS) in the S&amp;P 500, Flowserve will replace Edgewell Personal Care Co. (NYSE:EPC) in the S&amp;P MidCap 400, and Edgewell Personal Care will replace Exterran Corp. (NYSE:EXTN) in the S&amp;P SmallCap 600. Exterran is no longer representative of the small-cap market space.</p>
<p>S&amp;P MidCap 400 constituents Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASD:PENN), Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) and Caesars Entertainment Inc. (NASD:CZR) will all move to the S&amp;P 500, replacing SL Green Realty Corp. (NYSE:SLG), Xerox Holdings Corp. (NYSE:XRX) and Vontier Corp (NYSE:VNT), all of which will move to the S&amp;P MidCap 400.</p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 constituents Broadcom Inc. (NASD:AVGO), T-Mobile US Inc. (NASD:TMUS) and Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) will replace Allstate Corp. (NYSE:ALL), Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE:KMI) and Schlumberger NV (NYSE:SLB) in the S&amp;P 100. Allstate, Kinder Morgan, and Schlumberger will remain in the S&amp;P 500.</p>
</blockquote></div></div></div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/535/original/Screenshot+2021-03-15+at+9.22.00+PM.png?1615814543" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194535"></figure></section><hr><p>This should lead to US$17.7-21.3bn to buy of the four names based on prices at Friday's close, and US$3.2-3.9bn to sell of the outgoing names. Some of this will be crossed off internally, but a bunch of it will have to trade on the market. </p><p>There are five trading days to get this done, and the average buy is 11-13 days of ADV. The sells are slightly higher. Quiddity estimates are below.</p><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/537/original/Screenshot+2021-03-15+at+9.29.12+PM.png?1615815053" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194537"></figure></section><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penn-national-gaming-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5588:1" rel="noopener">Penn National Gaming (PENN US)</a> looks like it is the least-impacted by this move at only 4.3-5.1 days of ADV but I remind observers that passive funds will need to own the same percentage of the Voting Rights Float (i.e. if there are 100 shares out and there are 20 shares shorted, there would also be 20 shares additionally purchased on the long side, but the 97.6% float on PENN is 97.6% of 100, not of 120) for all companies in the basket. </p>
<p>PENN's impact in terms of ADV is low because average daily volume is a much higher percentage of float shares than the other companies. </p>
<p>PENN and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caesars-entertainment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15532:1" rel="noopener">Caesars Entertainment (CZR US)</a> may end up seeing some non-negligible impact, and substantially higher-than-normal trading volume because of their recent history as speculative vehicles.</p>
<p>Both PENN and CZR trade at somewhat lofty multiples based on last year's EBITDA, but both get to the low to mid teens by two years from now.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/539/original/20210312+SP500+Inclusion+PENN+CompTable+4.png?1615815530" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194539"></figure></section><section class="figure"><p>PENN has tracked an index (equal-weighted, daily-rebalanced) of the above-listed peers reasonably well over the past 12 months, but the 5-year log chart tells you that there have been moments of sustained underperformance. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/550/original/20210312+SP500+Inclusion+PENN+Price+1.png?1615815938" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194550"></figure></section><p>It is easier to see this on a chart of the ratio, as below, which suggests that to revisit recent highs against its Peer Basket Index, the shares would have to gain a bit more than 10%.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/552/original/20210312+SP500+Inclusion+PENN+Ratio+2.png?1615816061" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194552"></figure></section><p></p>
<p>Looking forward for the next few years, PENN trades at a slightly higher-than-Peer Basket average EV/EBIT ratio (using current EV and the average of FY+2 and FY+3 consensus EBIT).*</p>
<div class="content-remarks"><p>* Note that the two lines - green and light blue - represent different ways of looking at the same data. The light blue line is the average EV/EBIT ratio across the 10-name basket. The light green line is the average of the sum of the EVs and the sum of the EBITs, averaged over the two years. These two methods are shown because extreme numbers can cause dramatic changes in ratios ($50bn of EV and $100mm of EBIT is a multiple of 500. Move the EBIT to $10mm (a small move in the grand scheme of things) and the ratio moves to EV/EBIT of 5,000x which will impact a ratio of only 10-20 inputs.  </p></div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/555/original/20210312+SP500+Inclusion+PENN+EVEBIT+3.png?1615816220" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194555"></figure></section><p>Is this outperformance due to improving forecasts since last summer?  Not really. Kind of middle of the pack. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/575/original/Screenshot+2021-03-15+at+10.16.39+PM.png?1615817831" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194575"></figure></section><p>If one uses the S&amp;P guidance as to tracking funds and the quantity to buy using the pre-announcement price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a>, there should be $3.2bn of PENN to buy using Friday's closing price. I expect it is more than that.</p>
<p>The options positioning does not seem to be substantial enough to drive a short gamma squeeze but keen observers know, that can change. Existing shorts across the four names could be covered out of care, but it is not clear that will be a big driver either, though the short on PENN is reasonably substantial as a portion of the inclusion buy quantity. There will be considerable crossing within shops as funds trade out of S&amp;P Midcap 400 and into S&amp;P500.</p>
<p>All in all, there are some interesting things to look at in this event. </p>
<p>Conclusions are below the fold.</p>
<p></p></section>

On Friday, the S&amp;P Dow Jones Global Index team announced changes to the S&amp;P500 Index. 
NEW YORK, March 12, 2021: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will make the following index adjustments to the S&amp;P 500, S&amp;P 100, S&amp;P MidCap 400 and S&amp;P SmallCap 600 to ensure each index is more representative of its market capitalization range. The changes will be effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, March 22, 2021 to coincide with the quarterly rebalance:
NXP Semiconductors NV (NASD:NXPI) will replace Flowserve Corp. (NYSE:FLS) in the S&amp;P 500, Flowserve will replace Edgewell Personal Care Co. (NYSE:EPC) in the S&amp;P MidCap 400, and Edgewell Personal Care will replace Exterran Corp. (NYSE:EXTN) in the S&amp;P SmallCap 600. Exterran is no longer representative of the small-cap market space.
S&amp;P MidCap 400 constituents Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASD:PENN), Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) and Caesars Entertainment Inc. (NASD:CZR) will all move to the S&amp;P 500, replacing SL Green Realty Corp. (NYSE:SLG), Xerox Holdings Corp. (NYSE:XRX) and Vontier Corp (NYSE:VNT), all of which will move to the S&amp;P MidCap 400.
S&amp;P 500 constituents Broadcom Inc. (NASD:AVGO), T-Mobile US Inc. (NASD:TMUS) and Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) will replace Allstate Corp. (NYSE:ALL), Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE:KMI) and Schlumberger NV (NYSE:SLB) in the S&amp;P 100. Allstate, Kinder Morgan, and Schlumberger will remain in the S&amp;P 500.
This should lead to US$17.7-21.3bn to buy of the four names based on prices at Friday's close, and US$3.2-3.9bn to sell of the outgoing names. Some of this will be crossed off internally, but a bunch of it will have to trade on the market. There are five trading days to get this done, and the average buy is 11-13 days of ADV. The sells are slightly higher. Quiddity estimates are below.Penn National Gaming (PENN US) looks like it is the least-impacted by this move at only 4.3-5.1 days of ADV but I remind observers that passive funds will need to own the same percentage of the Voting Rights Float (i.e. if there are 100 shares out and there are 20 shares shorted, there would also be 20 shares additionally purchased on the long side, but the 97.6% float on PENN is 97.6% of 100, not of 120) for all companies in the basket. 
PENN's impact in terms of ADV is low because average daily volume is a much higher percentage of float shares than the other companies. 
PENN and Caesars Entertainment (CZR US) may end up seeing some non-negligible impact, and substantially higher-than-normal trading volume because of their recent history as speculative vehicles.
Both PENN and CZR trade at somewhat lofty multiples based on last year's EBITDA, but both get to the low to mid teens by two years from now.
PENN has tracked an index (equal-weighted, daily-rebalanced) of the above-listed peers reasonably well over the past 12 months, but the 5-year log chart tells you that there have been moments of sustained underperformance. 
It is easier to see this on a chart of the ratio, as below, which suggests that to revisit recent highs against its Peer Basket Index, the shares would have to gain a bit more than 10%.

Looking forward for the next few years, PENN trades at a slightly higher-than-Peer Basket average EV/EBIT ratio (using current EV and the average of FY+2 and FY+3 consensus EBIT).*
* Note that the two lines - green and light blue - represent different ways of looking at the same data. The light blue line is the average EV/EBIT ratio across the 10-name basket. The light green line is the average of the sum of the EVs and the sum of the EBITs, averaged over the two years. These two methods are shown because extreme numbers can cause dramatic changes in ratios ($50bn of EV and $100mm of EBIT is a multiple of 500. Move the EBIT to $10mm (a small move in the grand scheme of things) and the ratio moves to EV/EBIT of 5,000x which will impact a ratio of only 10-20 inputs.  
Is this outperformance due to improving forecasts since last summer?  Not really. Kind of middle of the pack. 
If one uses the S&amp;P guidance as to tracking funds and the quantity to buy using the pre-announcement price of Tesla Motors (TSLA US), there should be $3.2bn of PENN to buy using Friday's closing price. I expect it is more than that.
The options positioning does not seem to be substantial enough to drive a short gamma squeeze but keen observers know, that can change. Existing shorts across the four names could be covered out of care, but it is not clear that will be a big driver either, though the short on PENN is reasonably substantial as a portion of the inclusion buy quantity. There will be considerable crossing within shops as funds trade out of S&amp;P Midcap 400 and into S&amp;P500.
All in all, there are some interesting things to look at in this event. 
Conclusions are below the fold.


TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>Last week, New York Governor pointed towards legalizing online gambling to try to plug the budget gaps that COVID has blown open. He wants to raise $500M in revenues annually. We don't think he will get there, but we do think NY is a $700M TAM.</p><p>At $52, is it time to re-engage on Draft Kings even after an 11% rally?</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Last week, New York Governor pointed towards legalizing online gambling to try to plug the budget gaps that COVID has blown open. He wants to raise $500M in revenues annually. We don't think he will get there, but we do think NY is a $700M TAM.At $52, is it time to re-engage on Draft Kings even after an 11% rally?Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

NY State To Legalize Gambling, Double Down on DraftKings?

United States

PENN Entertainment, Inc. owns and operates casinos, hotels, and racetracks facilities. The Company offers an integrated entertainment, sports content, online sports betting, and casino gaming solutions. PENN Entertainment serves customers in the United States and Canada.

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PENN Entertainment (PENN US)

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the...

Arun George

Evolution Gaming: The World's Largest Casino, Which You Probably Never Heard Of

Who is the world's largest casino? Those who try to look for the answer in Las Vegas or Macau should check out this Swedish company that dominates...

Urbem Capital

S&P500 Index Rebalance: NXPI Is the One to Watch

There are 4 changes to the S&P500 with NXP Semiconductors the largest beneficiary of the changes. Estimated one-way turnover is US$22.4bn and there...

Brian Freitas

S&P500 March Rebalance: $18-21bn 1-Way

The S&P 500 March 2021 rebalance sees $18-21bn to buy and 20% of that to sell = a $15-20bn funding sell on Friday's close. A few hours in, I see...

Travis Lundy

NY State To Legalize Gambling, Double Down on DraftKings?

After New York's Governor signaled he would legalize gambling, we revisit our previous bullish thesis on DraftKings to see if now is the time to re...

Aaron Gabin

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