Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

<ul>
<li>We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics</li>
<li>We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.</li>
<li>SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.</li>
</ul>


We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.


Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Zooming out first for a big picture perspective - helpful away from the news &amp; chatter:</li><li>Bears Make Headlines &amp; Lose Money, Bulls Make Money! As always … !</li><li>The bear case sounds very smart very often, only problem is, it’s quite rarely right … !</li></ul>

Zooming out first for a big picture perspective - helpful away from the news &amp; chatter:Bears Make Headlines &amp; Lose Money, Bulls Make Money! As always … !The bear case sounds very smart very often, only problem is, it’s quite rarely right … !

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Sentiment & More - #Ed 5

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,405/1,411 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,390/1,385 points, based on the short-term uptrend reversal pattern.</li><li>KTX anticipates that this meeting's outcome could mark the first instance of the MPC opting to maintain the policy interest rate, breaking a trend of eight consecutive hikes.</li><li>The consensus expects the second reading of US 3Q23E GDP growth to mark at +4.9% QoQ (vs. 2Q23 at +2.1% QoQ); and the 4Q23E GDP growth is still likely to show a positive surprise, based on the Atlanta Fed's forecast calling for a healthy reading of +2.1% QoQ, which is much higher than the consensus forecast of +0.8% QoQ.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,405/1,411 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,390/1,385 points, based on the short-term uptrend reversal pattern.KTX anticipates that this meeting's outcome could mark the first instance of the MPC opting to maintain the policy interest rate, breaking a trend of eight consecutive hikes.The consensus expects the second reading of US 3Q23E GDP growth to mark at +4.9% QoQ (vs. 2Q23 at +2.1% QoQ); and the 4Q23E GDP growth is still likely to show a positive surprise, based on the Atlanta Fed's forecast calling for a healthy reading of +2.1% QoQ, which is much higher than the consensus forecast of +0.8% QoQ.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA)/1,550 points and the support at 1,527/1,515 points (25-day/10-day EMA).</li><li>On a positive note, large banks are projected to report higher profits owing to improving NIM (as the interest rate uptrend has boosted loan yields), overall loan growth (thanks to recovering economic activities, like retail and corporate loans), and higher fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), which should help offset increases in spending and ECL provision expenses.</li><li>On the political front, there is some positive news as more than half of the total seats in parliament have expressed the view that Khun Pita cannot be nominated as the prime minister candidate twice after failing in the first vote.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA)/1,550 points and the support at 1,527/1,515 points (25-day/10-day EMA).On a positive note, large banks are projected to report higher profits owing to improving NIM (as the interest rate uptrend has boosted loan yields), overall loan growth (thanks to recovering economic activities, like retail and corporate loans), and higher fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), which should help offset increases in spending and ECL provision expenses.On the political front, there is some positive news as more than half of the total seats in parliament have expressed the view that Khun Pita cannot be nominated as the prime minister candidate twice after failing in the first vote.

Waiting for Thai and US Corporate Earnings

United States

Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, affiliates and their licensees, produces, sells, distributes, and markets a wide range of branded cigarettes and tobacco products in markets outside of the United States of America.  The Company's portfolio comprises both international and local brands.

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Philip Morris International (PM US)

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading our long-term $SPX outlook to neutral (bullish since early-November 2023) due to deteriorating market dynamics; Upgrading Real Estate...

Vermilion Research

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Sentiment & More - #Ed 5

Zooming out first for a big picture perspective - helpful away from the news & chatter: Bears Make Headlines & Lose Money, Bulls Make Money! As...

Maverick Equity Research

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,405/1,411 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

Waiting for Thai and US Corporate Earnings

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA)/1,550 points and the support at 1,527/1,515...

Krungthai XSpring

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