Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We estimate that inflows for June was USD 11bn, led by consumer staple and financial sectors.</li>
<li>We highlight monthly inflows into Moutai, Yili, East Money, Tongwei, and Inovance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
We estimate that inflows for June was USD 11bn, led by consumer staple and financial sectors.
We highlight monthly inflows into Moutai, Yili, East Money, Tongwei, and Inovance.


Northbound Flows Monthly (June): $11bn Inflows

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Northbound connected recorded inflow of USD 2.7bn in May, led by financisl, utilities and energy sector.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili, Longi, and Industrial bank, as well as outflows from CATL, Conch, Haitian, Zijin and Tinci. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Northbound connected recorded inflow of USD 2.7bn in May, led by financisl, utilities and energy sector.
We highlight inflows into CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili, Longi, and Industrial bank, as well as outflows from CATL, Conch, Haitian, Zijin and Tinci. 


Northbound Flows Monthly (May): CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The competition between Alibaba and JD has been heating up after Alibaba abandoned its "exclusivity requirement”, JD sale GMV increased by 28.4% vs Alibaba only increased by 8.4% YoY.  </li>
<li>Live streaming has become a mainstream sales channel, Douyin and Kuaishou both achieved more than 200% sales increase YoY.  </li>
<li>Influencers and brands are fighting over price setting power. Many brands have opened their own official livestreaming channels this year.</li>
</ul>


The competition between Alibaba and JD has been heating up after Alibaba abandoned its "exclusivity requirement”, JD sale GMV increased by 28.4% vs Alibaba only increased by 8.4% YoY.  
Live streaming has become a mainstream sales channel, Douyin and Kuaishou both achieved more than 200% sales increase YoY.  
Influencers and brands are fighting over price setting power. Many brands have opened their own official livestreaming channels this year.


China

Proya Cosmetics Co., Ltd. operates as a cosmetics products manufacturing company. The Company researches and markets skin care products, make up, body wash, and other related products. Proya Cosmetics markets its products throughout China.

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Proya Cosmetics (603605 CH)

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

Northbound Flows Monthly (June): $11bn Inflows

We estimate $11bn inflow into A-share market through northbound in June and highlight monthly inflows into Moutai, Yili, East Money, Tongwei, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

Northbound Flows Monthly (May): CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili

Northbound stock connect recorded inflows of $2.7bn in May. We highlight inflows into CMB, Yangtze Power, Yili, Longi, Industrial bank, as well as...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A Quiet Single Day

Another year another Single's Day, but the pandemic has put a damper on this year's shopping bonanza. Faced with a shrinking pie, a new player is...

Evelyn Zhang

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