Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.</p>

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

<p>Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and <span>suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.</span></p>

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

<p>Support levels have meant little more than talking points as indexes are slicing through them like butter. The truth remains that no one knows how low we will go, and the trend is still down for global equities. At the same time, every week where the MSCI ACWI loses ~10%, it gets that much closer to finding a bottom. In this report we provide updates on several indicators we are watching as to clues of a bottom.  We also highlight actionable themes within Staples, Health Care, Technology. We continue to recommend areas with defensive and/or growth characteristics.</p>

Support levels have meant little more than talking points as indexes are slicing through them like butter. The truth remains that no one knows how low we will go, and the trend is still down for global equities. At the same time, every week where the MSCI ACWI loses ~10%, it gets that much closer to finding a bottom. In this report we provide updates on several indicators we are watching as to clues of a bottom.  We also highlight actionable themes within Staples, Health Care, Technology. We continue to recommend areas with defensive and/or growth characteristics.

Dollar Surge Further Aggravates Equity Markets

<p style="text-align: justify;">With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major <em>countertrend </em>rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.</p>

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major countertrend rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><blockquote><p><em>‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ </em></p></blockquote></div><div class="content-remarks"><p><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-to-surviving-military-service-moisturizer-foam-cleanser-cucumber-face-mask-1535034194" target="_blank">WSJ article</a> on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men</p></div><blockquote>
<em>“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. </em><em>” </em>
</blockquote><div class="content-remarks"><p>Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder</p></div><div class="content-remarks">
<blockquote><p><em>‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.</em>’</p></blockquote>
<p>From a recent SCMP article</p>
</div>

‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men
“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. ” 
Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder
‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.’
From a recent SCMP article


Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

China

Proya Cosmetics Co., Ltd. operates as a cosmetics products manufacturing company. The Company researches and markets skin care products, make up, body wash, and other related products. Proya Cosmetics markets its products throughout China.

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Proya Cosmetics (603605 CH)

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the...

Vermilion Research

Dollar Surge Further Aggravates Equity Markets

Support levels have meant little more than talking points as indexes are slicing through them like butter. The truth remains that no one knows how...

Vermilion Research

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is...

Vermilion Research

Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men “Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic...

Sean Maher

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