Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1/H1 2025 results: Revenue collapsed (–88% YoY) and EBITDA turned negative due to concentrate export expiry and slow smelter ramp-up.</li>
<li>Earnings revisions: FY25–26 cut sharply (–60–70% vs earlier estimates), with normalization only from FY27.</li>
<li>Valuation: At ~USD 37 bn (IDR 8,175/share), AMMN looks fully priced, with our SOTP implying 10–20% downside.</li>
</ul>


Q1/H1 2025 results: Revenue collapsed (–88% YoY) and EBITDA turned negative due to concentrate export expiry and slow smelter ramp-up.
Earnings revisions: FY25–26 cut sharply (–60–70% vs earlier estimates), with normalization only from FY27.
Valuation: At ~USD 37 bn (IDR 8,175/share), AMMN looks fully priced, with our SOTP implying 10–20% downside.


Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) – Q1 Weak, Forecasts Cut, Stock Fully Priced

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly.  For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It's a big deal. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly.  For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.
There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It's a big deal. 


[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> announced last month it would change its benchmark for the September rebalance, to the Market Vectors Global Gold Miners Index. </li>
<li>That means name changes based on methodology and universe changes. So we introduce coverage of the index, its rebalances, and the big flow in September.</li>
<li>We also add in cross flows from the MV Junior Gold Miners Index, offer spreadsheets, flow tables, leaderboards for the GDX index. Lots of data here.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) announced last month it would change its benchmark for the September rebalance, to the Market Vectors Global Gold Miners Index. 
That means name changes based on methodology and universe changes. So we introduce coverage of the index, its rebalances, and the big flow in September.
We also add in cross flows from the MV Junior Gold Miners Index, offer spreadsheets, flow tables, leaderboards for the GDX index. Lots of data here.


[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal - $2.8bn One Way

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.</li>
<li>Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.
Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties across Asia. The company primarily explores for lead, zinc, gold, copper, and iron ore, and also engages in investment activities, funding, financing, and offers mining advisory and marketing services. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ)

Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) – Q1 Weak, Forecasts Cut, Stock Fully Priced

Q1/H1 2025 results show revenue collapse and negative EBITDA, leading to sharp earnings revisions and a fully valued stock at ~USD 38bn.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

We see 8 adds and 25 deletes for GDX. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% and round-trip trade is US$6.18bn. Forecast adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF rebal in September comes with a change in benchmark which makes this a bigger deal than normal. That adds flows. We see...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal - $2.8bn One Way

The Van Eck Global Gold Miners ETF will change benchmarks in September. That means $2.8bn of flow as we calculate it with multiple ADDs and a...

Travis Lundy

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 2 sets of changes for the LQ45 in July. The forecast adds and deletes have traded in a range over the last few months. Historically,...

Brian Freitas

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) – Q1 Weak, Forecasts Cut, Stock Fully Priced

​Q1/H1 2025 results show revenue collapse and negative EBITDA, leading to sharp earnings revisions and a fully valued stock at ~USD 38bn.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

We see 8 adds and 25 deletes for GDX. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% and round-trip trade is US$6.18bn. Forecast adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF rebal in September comes with a change in benchmark which makes this a bigger deal than normal. That adds flows. We see...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal - $2.8bn One Way

The Van Eck Global Gold Miners ETF will change benchmarks in September. That means $2.8bn of flow as we calculate it with multiple ADDs and a...

Travis Lundy

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 2 sets of changes for the LQ45 in July. The forecast adds and deletes have traded in a range over the last few months. Historically,...

Brian Freitas

Q1/H1 2025 results show revenue collapse and negative EBITDA, leading to sharp earnings revisions and a fully valued stock at ~USD 38bn.