Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.</li>
<li>BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.</li>
<li>Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.</li>
</ul>


Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.
BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.
Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.


Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.</li>
<li>Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.</li>
<li>Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.
Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.
Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

<ul>
<li>Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. </li>
<li>In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.</li>
<li>After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. 
In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.
After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.


Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto is a leading British-Australian multinational mining and metals company that specializes in the exploration, mining, and processing of mineral resources. Its core products include iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, England.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Rio Tinto (RIO LN)

Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Weak consumption, tightening supply, and cautious positioning collide as iron ore tests key support after a bearish crossover.

Mint Finance

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

Wide discounts, persistent premiums and shifting catalysts. We revisit Europe's main holding-company valuation gaps and where the next convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

New supply headlines cool momentum, but supportive demand and positioning suggest consolidation first, with dip-buying interest emerging near...

Mint Finance

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Weak consumption, tightening supply, and cautious positioning collide as iron ore tests key support after a bearish crossover.

Mint Finance

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

Wide discounts, persistent premiums and shifting catalysts. We revisit Europe's main holding-company valuation gaps and where the next convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

New supply headlines cool momentum, but supportive demand and positioning suggest consolidation first, with dip-buying interest emerging near...

Mint Finance

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

​Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.