Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Additionally, we are starting to see signs that lead us to believe the bottom is in for SPX, IWM, QQQ, and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT,DRAM,WGMI); more on this below</li>
<li>False breakdowns and bullish inflections on XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM, WGMI, EEM. DXY breaking below major support. Risk-on signals expanding</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Additionally, we are starting to see signs that lead us to believe the bottom is in for SPX, IWM, QQQ, and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT,DRAM,WGMI); more on this below
False breakdowns and bullish inflections on XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM, WGMI, EEM. DXY breaking below major support. Risk-on signals expanding


Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names?; SPX and IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.</li>
<li>We continue to believe Technology and A.I. areas (XLK, SOXX, DRAM) are poised to move higher, and we have Technology on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>A significant "wall of worry" is being built, with the latest bricks being bad breadth and rising interest rate volatility</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.
We continue to believe Technology and A.I. areas (XLK, SOXX, DRAM) are poised to move higher, and we have Technology on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
A significant "wall of worry" is being built, with the latest bricks being bad breadth and rising interest rate volatility


Interest Rate Volatility, High Yield Spreads, and Bad Breadth a Concern? All Hinges on 7507-7580 SPX

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Oil is likely to be the next commodity to join the party </li>
<li>We see an asymmetric opportunity in the oil and gas sector</li>
<li>We introduce a basket of Asian oil and gas E&amp;P stocks to take advantage of the opportunity </li>
</ul>


Oil is likely to be the next commodity to join the party 
We see an asymmetric opportunity in the oil and gas sector
We introduce a basket of Asian oil and gas E&amp;P stocks to take advantage of the opportunity 


High Conviction Idea: Oil Is the New Gold!

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>SCOTUS invalidated Trump's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs on various countries (and importers can hence demand refunds). Pres. Trump reimposed a 15% tariff on all imports for 150 days.  </li>
<li>In 2025, there was a large decline in US bilateral deficits with China and modest ones with most OECD partners, but big increases in deficits with Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Ireland.</li>
<li>In 2026, the US bilateral deficits are likely to increase faster given the lower tariff, with only modest increases in US goods exports via deals. Good for global trade. </li>
</ul>


SCOTUS invalidated Trump's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs on various countries (and importers can hence demand refunds). Pres. Trump reimposed a 15% tariff on all imports for 150 days.  
In 2025, there was a large decline in US bilateral deficits with China and modest ones with most OECD partners, but big increases in deficits with Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Ireland.
In 2026, the US bilateral deficits are likely to increase faster given the lower tariff, with only modest increases in US goods exports via deals. Good for global trade. 


US: SCOTUS Upends Trump's Tariff Framework; Good for Global Trade

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Volatility remains high in many sectors, but leadership changes are clear.</li>
<li>The technology sector continues to face challenges from the market </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Volatility remains high in many sectors, but leadership changes are clear.
The technology sector continues to face challenges from the market 


Overview #49 – The Return of the Real Economy

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names?; SPX and IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding

Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names? $XLK $QQQ $CHAT $SOXX $DRAM $WGMI; $SPX and $IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding. ACIW, PEGA, QTWO,...

Vermilion Research

Interest Rate Volatility, High Yield Spreads, and Bad Breadth a Concern? All Hinges on 7507-7580 SPX

Interest Rate Volatility, High Yield Spreads, and Bad Breadth a Concern?; All Hinges on 7507-7580 $SPX. We continue to believe Technology and A.I....

Vermilion Research

High Conviction Idea: Oil Is the New Gold!

We would be looking to trim SOME OIL and GAS stock exposure this week as the spot price rises. This would be to buy more in the inevitable...

Rikki Malik

US: SCOTUS Upends Trump's Tariff Framework; Good for Global Trade

SCOTUS invalidated Trump's tariffs. US deficits declined with China, increased with Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Ireland. Lower tariffs in 2026 will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Overview #49 – The Return of the Real Economy

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. US data confirms the cyclical upturn, while China awaits the Two Sessions

Rikki Malik

Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names?; SPX and IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding

Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names? $XLK $QQQ $CHAT $SOXX $DRAM $WGMI; $SPX and $IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding. ACIW, PEGA, QTWO,...

Vermilion Research

Interest Rate Volatility, High Yield Spreads, and Bad Breadth a Concern? All Hinges on 7507-7580 SPX

Interest Rate Volatility, High Yield Spreads, and Bad Breadth a Concern?; All Hinges on 7507-7580 $SPX. We continue to believe Technology and A.I....

Vermilion Research

High Conviction Idea: Oil Is the New Gold!

We would be looking to trim SOME OIL and GAS stock exposure this week as the spot price rises. This would be to buy more in the inevitable...

Rikki Malik

US: SCOTUS Upends Trump's Tariff Framework; Good for Global Trade

​SCOTUS invalidated Trump's tariffs. US deficits declined with China, increased with Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Ireland. Lower tariffs in 2026 will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Overview #49 – The Return of the Real Economy

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. US data confirms the cyclical upturn, while China awaits the Two Sessions

Rikki Malik

SCOTUS invalidated Trump's tariffs. US deficits declined with China, increased with Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Ireland. Lower tariffs in 2026 will...