Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>News that DeepSeek's latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI's ChatGPT in  most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today. </li>
<li>DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms (META US)</a> ), using lower cost chips and less data.</li>
<li>Tech companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let's see where support for reversal rallies can be found.</li>
</ul>


News that DeepSeek's latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI's ChatGPT in  most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today. 
DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like Meta Platforms (META US) ), using lower cost chips and less data.
Tech companies like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let's see where support for reversal rallies can be found.


EQD | DeepSeek's New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Common perception is that Trump = Volatility. We look at average monthly historic volatility and returns across 2017-2020 and compare with prior 19 years.</li>
<li>Trumps term in office included "Volmageddon", the Christmas Massacre and Covid but we still find that the returns and historic volatility were not out of line.</li>
<li>Although a small sample size, we see a pattern to how historic volatility deviated from the average over his last term in office. </li>
</ul>


Common perception is that Trump = Volatility. We look at average monthly historic volatility and returns across 2017-2020 and compare with prior 19 years.
Trumps term in office included "Volmageddon", the Christmas Massacre and Covid but we still find that the returns and historic volatility were not out of line.
Although a small sample size, we see a pattern to how historic volatility deviated from the average over his last term in office. 


EQD| SPX Volatility During the Trump Years (2017-2020)

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin</li>
<li>Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.</li>
<li>Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.</li>
</ul>


Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin
Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.
Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | DeepSeek's New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

DeepSeek's latest AI release is shaking markets, tech companies like NVDA and META are plummeting, causing US Indices to follow suit. Analysis of...

Nico Rosti

EQD| SPX Volatility During the Trump Years (2017-2020)

Despite common perception, Trump's term in office did not result in significantly higher historic volatility or returns compared to the prior 19...

John Ley

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

EQD | DeepSeek's New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

​DeepSeek's latest AI release is shaking markets, tech companies like NVDA and META are plummeting, causing US Indices to follow suit. Analysis of...

Nico Rosti

EQD| SPX Volatility During the Trump Years (2017-2020)

​Despite common perception, Trump's term in office did not result in significantly higher historic volatility or returns compared to the prior 19...

John Ley

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

​Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

​The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

​Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

DeepSeek's latest AI release is shaking markets, tech companies like NVDA and META are plummeting, causing US Indices to follow suit. Analysis of...

Despite common perception, Trump's term in office did not result in significantly higher historic volatility or returns compared to the prior 19...

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...