High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Since late 2023, Momentum has been outperforming all other investment factors with a persistency and a dominance that has rarely been observed before.</li><li>The convergence of three feedback loops makes that possible.</li><li>Interest Loop: Interest expenses are now accounting for 60% of the Treasury’s deficit.</li></ul>

Since late 2023, Momentum has been outperforming all other investment factors with a persistency and a dominance that has rarely been observed before.The convergence of three feedback loops makes that possible.Interest Loop: Interest expenses are now accounting for 60% of the Treasury’s deficit.

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The NFP jump from 88,000 expectations startled markets, causing a selloff in some top performers for the year, and a selloff in the S&amp;P, and global markets.</li>
<li>We suggest evaluating if a secondary selloff is possible, and looking to the derivatives market for possible solutions.</li>
<li>FOMC will need to add the wider payrolls trend to the list of high priority topics at next week's meeting. </li>
</ul>


The NFP jump from 88,000 expectations startled markets, causing a selloff in some top performers for the year, and a selloff in the S&amp;P, and global markets.
We suggest evaluating if a secondary selloff is possible, and looking to the derivatives market for possible solutions.
FOMC will need to add the wider payrolls trend to the list of high priority topics at next week's meeting. 


Hedging the NFP Shock: Tech Selloffs, Fed Hike Risks, and the VIX SEP26 Option Spread

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.</li>
<li>At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.</li>
<li>A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.
At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.
A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.


Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Government bond markets continue to exert pressure on other assets</li>
<li>The Japanese Yen has likely confirmed a trend change - expect more volatility</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Government bond markets continue to exert pressure on other assets
The Japanese Yen has likely confirmed a trend change - expect more volatility


<ul>
<li>U.S. equities see potential challenges maintaining visibility on future revenues in the current environment, with indices facing technical resistances as of late.</li>
<li>Japanese Indices: TOPIX may be somewhat undervalued holding potential for a solid eventual rebound if a pullback is triggered by macro headwinds.</li>
<li>Strategic trade idea designed to transfer premium generated by the directionally biased short volatility position while things appear shaky to fund the bullish Japan leg.</li>
</ul>


U.S. equities see potential challenges maintaining visibility on future revenues in the current environment, with indices facing technical resistances as of late.
Japanese Indices: TOPIX may be somewhat undervalued holding potential for a solid eventual rebound if a pullback is triggered by macro headwinds.
Strategic trade idea designed to transfer premium generated by the directionally biased short volatility position while things appear shaky to fund the bullish Japan leg.


S&P Visibility Gap: Fading U.S. Tech Resistance Via ES JUN26 Options to Fund TOPIX Options

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Momentum Trifecta

Since late 2023, Momentum has been outperforming all other investment factors with a persistency and a dominance that has rarely been observed before.

Fallacy Alarm

Hedging the NFP Shock: Tech Selloffs, Fed Hike Risks, and the VIX SEP26 Option Spread

Good data can signal less than good expectations. This insight examines the US move last Friday and suggest what to watch for to be ready for the...

Jay Cameron

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM, PBR, REPYY, EC, YPF, UGP, GPRK, GTE, COP, EOG,...

Vermilion Research

Overview #77 – Burning Down the House

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. More of the same - higher oil, higher yields, and the JPY finally...

Rikki Malik

S&P Visibility Gap: Fading U.S. Tech Resistance Via ES JUN26 Options to Fund TOPIX Options

US equities face some potential challenges in predicting future revenues under current conditions. Japanese indices show potential for rebound;...

Jay Cameron

Momentum Trifecta

Since late 2023, Momentum has been outperforming all other investment factors with a persistency and a dominance that has rarely been observed before.

Fallacy Alarm

Hedging the NFP Shock: Tech Selloffs, Fed Hike Risks, and the VIX SEP26 Option Spread

Good data can signal less than good expectations. This insight examines the US move last Friday and suggest what to watch for to be ready for the...

Jay Cameron

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM, PBR, REPYY, EC, YPF, UGP, GPRK, GTE, COP, EOG,...

Vermilion Research

Overview #77 – Burning Down the House

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. More of the same - higher oil, higher yields, and the JPY finally...

Rikki Malik

S&P Visibility Gap: Fading U.S. Tech Resistance Via ES JUN26 Options to Fund TOPIX Options

​US equities face some potential challenges in predicting future revenues under current conditions. Japanese indices show potential for rebound;...

Jay Cameron

US equities face some potential challenges in predicting future revenues under current conditions. Japanese indices show potential for rebound;...