Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are shifting our near-term outlook to neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>Choppy consolidation has continued between support at 6780-6824 and resistance at 7000, and a neutral near-term outlook is appropriate until there is a decisive break in either direction.</li>
<li>We intended to wait for SPX to break below 6780 to downgrade our near-term outlook, continued deterioration in market dynamics suggests a breakout above 7000 is unlikely</li>
</ul>


We are shifting our near-term outlook to neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
Choppy consolidation has continued between support at 6780-6824 and resistance at 7000, and a neutral near-term outlook is appropriate until there is a decisive break in either direction.
We intended to wait for SPX to break below 6780 to downgrade our near-term outlook, continued deterioration in market dynamics suggests a breakout above 7000 is unlikely


Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, DXY, Etc

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Recent market episodes refocus attention on whether synchronized declines across major U.S. asset classes lead to follow-through selling.</li>
<li>Bonds behave differently from equities and the dollar during these episodes, standing out within the broader U.S. asset complex.</li>
<li>Elevated correlations raise questions around how often these joint declines occur and what they imply for markets.</li>
</ul>


Recent market episodes refocus attention on whether synchronized declines across major U.S. asset classes lead to follow-through selling.
Bonds behave differently from equities and the dollar during these episodes, standing out within the broader U.S. asset complex.
Elevated correlations raise questions around how often these joint declines occur and what they imply for markets.


U.S. Assets: Synchronized Declines and What They Mean for Markets

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>What recent intervention in the US government bond market means for our themes</li>
<li>While a short-term bounce is likely, the USD's bear market has resumed</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
What recent intervention in the US government bond market means for our themes
While a short-term bounce is likely, the USD's bear market has resumed


Overview #74 – QE Or Not QE – That Is The Question

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520), $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Just last week (1/6/26 Compass) we discussed the many breakouts (most notably the Russell 2000) which led us to believe immediate upside was ahead. The breakouts just keep coming.</li>
<li>Latest breakouts include SPX, space exploration (ARKX), autonomous/robotics (ARKQ), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), retail (XRT), homebuilders (ITB, XHB), small-cap growth (IWO), quantum (QTUM), China (MCHI), and Staples (XLP).</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520), $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Just last week (1/6/26 Compass) we discussed the many breakouts (most notably the Russell 2000) which led us to believe immediate upside was ahead. The breakouts just keep coming.
Latest breakouts include SPX, space exploration (ARKX), autonomous/robotics (ARKQ), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), retail (XRT), homebuilders (ITB, XHB), small-cap growth (IWO), quantum (QTUM), China (MCHI), and Staples (XLP).


Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

<ul>
<li>November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.</li>
<li>Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.</li>
<li>Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.</li>
</ul>


November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.
Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.
Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.


Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, DXY, Etc

Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, MOVE index, DXY, Commodities All Rising $DJP $USO $UGA....

Vermilion Research

U.S. Assets: Synchronized Declines and What They Mean for Markets

A data-driven look at joint sell-offs in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, assessing historical patterns, correlations, and the role of bonds...

John Ley

Overview #74 – QE Or Not QE – That Is The Question

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent intervention in the US Government bond market &...

Rikki Malik

Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

Breakouts Just Keep Coming $SPX $ARKX $ARKQ $XLY $XRT $ITB $IWO $QTUM $MCHI $XLP; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight $XLB $GDX $XME $REMX; Still...

Vermilion Research

Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Examining 25 years of macro market behavior around U.S. Thanksgiving to uncover recurring seasonal patterns and what they may reveal about risk and...

John Ley