Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Latest weekly Global Liquidity data reveal a sharp hiccup caused by tax payments in the US and repo timing issues in China  </li>
<li>This does not foretell of any future serious disruption to our expectations for easier liquidity conditions later this year and next  </li>
<li>The jump in America’s TGA at the Fed signals weak tax revenues and warns that the debt-ceiling may be hit sooner, possibly by June/ July</li>
</ul>


Latest weekly Global Liquidity data reveal a sharp hiccup caused by tax payments in the US and repo timing issues in China  
This does not foretell of any future serious disruption to our expectations for easier liquidity conditions later this year and next  
The jump in America’s TGA at the Fed signals weak tax revenues and warns that the debt-ceiling may be hit sooner, possibly by June/ July


Is Global Liquidity Already Threated By America’s Upcoming Debt Ceiling?

<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity cycle bottomed around October 2022 based on our calculations, immediately following the UK gilt crisis. That is no coincidence!</li>
<li>Central Banks are increasingly using their balance sheets to focus on financial stability. Expect more subtle forms of YCC in the future</li>
<li>QT (quantitative tightening) is effectively dead. Central Banks are becoming active collateral managers. Investors must closely watch the MOVE not the VIX</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity cycle bottomed around October 2022 based on our calculations, immediately following the UK gilt crisis. That is no coincidence!
Central Banks are increasingly using their balance sheets to focus on financial stability. Expect more subtle forms of YCC in the future
QT (quantitative tightening) is effectively dead. Central Banks are becoming active collateral managers. Investors must closely watch the MOVE not the VIX


A Sea Change in Global Liquidity: Why QT Is Dead?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Performance was in line with estimates, with total revenue of $57.01B and an expanding Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 73.6%. Management issued robust Q4 revenue guidance of $65B.</li>
<li>Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's muted reaction and subsequent slide highlight the risk of unusual, synchronized cross-asset market drops, signaling a need to examine, and hedge against potential systemic vulnerability.</li>
<li>The synchronized cross-asset market drop on November 20, lacking a clear catalyst, suggests hidden systemic risk driven in part by algorithmic positioning.</li>
</ul>


Performance was in line with estimates, with total revenue of $57.01B and an expanding Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 73.6%. Management issued robust Q4 revenue guidance of $65B.
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's muted reaction and subsequent slide highlight the risk of unusual, synchronized cross-asset market drops, signaling a need to examine, and hedge against potential systemic vulnerability.
The synchronized cross-asset market drop on November 20, lacking a clear catalyst, suggests hidden systemic risk driven in part by algorithmic positioning.


4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Broad declines set a cautious tone as only a handful of single stocks avoided losses last week amid rising option volumes.</li>
<li>Market breadth deteriorated sharply, marking the weakest showing of the past year and highlighting the pressure across Hong Kong equities.</li>
<li>We highlight companies reporting next week in what shapes up as a busy week ahead with Baba and Meituan both reporting.</li>
</ul>


Broad declines set a cautious tone as only a handful of single stocks avoided losses last week amid rising option volumes.
Market breadth deteriorated sharply, marking the weakest showing of the past year and highlighting the pressure across Hong Kong equities.
We highlight companies reporting next week in what shapes up as a busy week ahead with Baba and Meituan both reporting.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Nov 17 – 21): Breadth Collapses, Put Volumes Rise

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Is Global Liquidity Already Threated By America’s Upcoming Debt Ceiling?

Latest weekly Global Liquidity data reveal a sharp hiccup. It warns that that America's debt-ceiling may be hit sooner, possibly by June. It does...

Michael J. Howell

A Sea Change in Global Liquidity: Why QT Is Dead?

September 2022 UK gilts crisis has proved a major wake up call for Central Bankers. It marked a major turning point in the Global Liquidity cycle....

Michael J. Howell

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff

NVIDIA's strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance overshadowed by systemic market reaction, highlighting potential systemic vulnerability in cross-asset...

Jay Cameron

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Nov 17 – 21): Breadth Collapses, Put Volumes Rise

Hong Kong single stocks faced sharp declines and the weakest breadth of the year, while option flows strengthened and implied vols softened.

John Ley

Is Global Liquidity Already Threated By America’s Upcoming Debt Ceiling?

Latest weekly Global Liquidity data reveal a sharp hiccup. It warns that that America's debt-ceiling may be hit sooner, possibly by June. It does...

Michael J. Howell

A Sea Change in Global Liquidity: Why QT Is Dead?

September 2022 UK gilts crisis has proved a major wake up call for Central Bankers. It marked a major turning point in the Global Liquidity cycle....

Michael J. Howell

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff

​NVIDIA's strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance overshadowed by systemic market reaction, highlighting potential systemic vulnerability in cross-asset...

Jay Cameron

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Nov 17 – 21): Breadth Collapses, Put Volumes Rise

Hong Kong single stocks faced sharp declines and the weakest breadth of the year, while option flows strengthened and implied vols softened.

John Ley

NVIDIA's strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance overshadowed by systemic market reaction, highlighting potential systemic vulnerability in cross-asset...