Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Tensions ratchet up between China and Japan over Taiwan comments</li>
<li>Signs of a turning point in the Chinese macro environment?</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Tensions ratchet up between China and Japan over Taiwan comments
Signs of a turning point in the Chinese macro environment?


Overview #45 - Sanctions, Metals, and Mergers

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>ISM's manufacturing PMI falling to its lowest reading of 2025 in December, and CPI inflation for Nov'25 at 2.7%YoY (well below consensus expectation of 3.1%YoY) validated FOMC's Dec'25 rate cut.  </li>
<li>Trump tariffs have boosted US manufacturing, with industrial growth of 2.5%YoY the strongest in 3 years, and US steel output up 3.2%YoY in Jan-Nov'25 while world output declined 4%YoY.</li>
<li>FOMC's Dec'25 SEP showed lower inflation and higher GDP growth in 2026 (Goldilocks!). With Venezuela supply augmentation lowering oil prices by Mar'26 we expect 50bp of rate cuts in H1/2026.</li>
</ul>


ISM's manufacturing PMI falling to its lowest reading of 2025 in December, and CPI inflation for Nov'25 at 2.7%YoY (well below consensus expectation of 3.1%YoY) validated FOMC's Dec'25 rate cut.  
Trump tariffs have boosted US manufacturing, with industrial growth of 2.5%YoY the strongest in 3 years, and US steel output up 3.2%YoY in Jan-Nov'25 while world output declined 4%YoY.
FOMC's Dec'25 SEP showed lower inflation and higher GDP growth in 2026 (Goldilocks!). With Venezuela supply augmentation lowering oil prices by Mar'26 we expect 50bp of rate cuts in H1/2026.


US: Elements of Goldilocks Support More Rate Cuts in H1 2026 Amid Decent Growth

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI-Driven data centres are breaking a decade of flat U.S. electricity demand, pushing annual growth above historical norms, forcing utilities to expand their capacities.</li>
<li>Meeting this surge requires an all-of-the-above energy mix, where renewables lead new capacity additions, but natural gas remains the critical balancing fuel amid constraints and grid expansion.</li>
<li>The most durable beneficiaries are not power generators but midstream and infrastructure players, including grid builders, equipment manufacturers, and materials suppliers, whose revenues are driven by spending and reliability.</li>
</ul>


AI-Driven data centres are breaking a decade of flat U.S. electricity demand, pushing annual growth above historical norms, forcing utilities to expand their capacities.
Meeting this surge requires an all-of-the-above energy mix, where renewables lead new capacity additions, but natural gas remains the critical balancing fuel amid constraints and grid expansion.
The most durable beneficiaries are not power generators but midstream and infrastructure players, including grid builders, equipment manufacturers, and materials suppliers, whose revenues are driven by spending and reliability.


The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Central banks add fuel to the ongoing commodity bull market</li>
<li>Could we see a meaningful de-escalation in US and China tensions</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Central banks add fuel to the ongoing commodity bull market
Could we see a meaningful de-escalation in US and China tensions


Overview #43 – The Gift that Keeps on Giving

<ul>
<li>The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market</li>
<li>Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal</li>
<li>A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets</li>
</ul>


The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market
Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets


2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Overview #45 - Sanctions, Metals, and Mergers

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. All clear ahead for many of our investment themes

Rikki Malik

US: Elements of Goldilocks Support More Rate Cuts in H1 2026 Amid Decent Growth

ISM's manufacturing PMI weakened in Dec'25, validating FOMC rate cut. Trump tariffs boost US manufacturing, FOMC predicts lower inflation and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story

AI-driven data centers are driving electricity demand growth in the US, requiring utilities to expand capacity with a mix of renewables and...

Mint Finance

Overview #43 – The Gift that Keeps on Giving

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Bank Pronouncements and the potential for US-China tension de...

Rikki Malik

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

Overview #45 - Sanctions, Metals, and Mergers

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. All clear ahead for many of our investment themes

Rikki Malik

US: Elements of Goldilocks Support More Rate Cuts in H1 2026 Amid Decent Growth

​ISM's manufacturing PMI weakened in Dec'25, validating FOMC rate cut. Trump tariffs boost US manufacturing, FOMC predicts lower inflation and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story

​AI-driven data centers are driving electricity demand growth in the US, requiring utilities to expand capacity with a mix of renewables and...

Mint Finance

Overview #43 – The Gift that Keeps on Giving

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Bank Pronouncements and the potential for US-China tension de...

Rikki Malik

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

ISM's manufacturing PMI weakened in Dec'25, validating FOMC rate cut. Trump tariffs boost US manufacturing, FOMC predicts lower inflation and...

AI-driven data centers are driving electricity demand growth in the US, requiring utilities to expand capacity with a mix of renewables and...