Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral</li>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here</li>
<li>Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200</li>
</ul>


We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200


Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Markets steadied in North America suggesting a firmer open for Hong Kong stock on Monday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong market breadth improved notably, suggesting broader participation despite uneven performance across sectors.</li>
<li>Option activity eased slightly, though Call demand remained steady relative to overall volume.</li>
</ul>


Markets steadied in North America suggesting a firmer open for Hong Kong stock on Monday.
Hong Kong market breadth improved notably, suggesting broader participation despite uneven performance across sectors.
Option activity eased slightly, though Call demand remained steady relative to overall volume.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Nov 03–07): Growing Split Between Old and New Economy Sectors

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Kospi’s rally has extended seven months and now shows signs of fatigue, trading with speculative assets and now sharply diverging.</li>
<li>Implied volatility is elevated, with short-term measures above the 90th percentile on multiple lookbacks.</li>
<li>We recommend an option trade and hedge given the current setup.</li>
</ul>


Kospi’s rally has extended seven months and now shows signs of fatigue, trading with speculative assets and now sharply diverging.
Implied volatility is elevated, with short-term measures above the 90th percentile on multiple lookbacks.
We recommend an option trade and hedge given the current setup.


Kospi: Rising Volatility and Early Warnings From a Seven-Month Surge

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>CEO of Quantly discusses market updates, geopolitical landscape, and trends in safe havens</li><li>Focus on innovation and tech, AI, and bitcoin in the digital market</li><li>Analysis of one year trends in safe havens, bitcoin, gold, and the impact of tariffs on the market.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

CEO of Quantly discusses market updates, geopolitical landscape, and trends in safe havensFocus on innovation and tech, AI, and bitcoin in the digital marketAnalysis of one year trends in safe havens, bitcoin, gold, and the impact of tariffs on the market.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Agentic Finance: Building AI Analysts for the Debasement Trade Era — with Vlad Stanev of Quantly

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.</li>
<li>Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a>  and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)</a>  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.
</li>
</ul>


A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 


Meta (META US)  and the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.



Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Nov 03–07): Growing Split Between Old and New Economy Sectors

A calm trading week belied growing divergence between old and new economy stocks. Firming price action in New York points to positive open on...

John Ley

Kospi: Rising Volatility and Early Warnings From a Seven-Month Surge

Kospi’s seven-month rally is showing strain, with volatility rising and speculative behavior resembling patterns seen near prior peaks. A trade and...

John Ley

Agentic Finance: Building AI Analysts for the Debasement Trade Era — with Vlad Stanev of Quantly

Quantly CEO Vlad discusses market volatility and geopolitical events, focusing on innovation and tech trends like AI and bitcoin, and highlighting...

William Mann

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Our probabilistic analysis shows extreme overbought conditions across both US and Asian equities, with Asia being the most overheated. META and CSI...

Nico Rosti