Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Implied volatility rose across most markets in October, and a continuing trend in vol premium warrants attention.  </li>
<li>November has historically produced strong price returns and positive volatility premiums across global markets.</li>
<li>Implied volatility displays clustering across markets, with two distinct groupings beginning to take shape.</li>
</ul>


Implied volatility rose across most markets in October, and a continuing trend in vol premium warrants attention.  
November has historically produced strong price returns and positive volatility premiums across global markets.
Implied volatility displays clustering across markets, with two distinct groupings beginning to take shape.


Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

<ul>
<li>Third straight week in which HSI recorded a weekly absolute price change greater than 3%.</li>
<li>Breadth improved sharply, though single stock option volumes remained subdued. Strong North American market son Friday point to higher open for stocks on Monday. </li>
<li>A heavy slate of earnings reporters awaits in the week ahead.</li>
</ul>


Third straight week in which HSI recorded a weekly absolute price change greater than 3%.
Breadth improved sharply, though single stock option volumes remained subdued. Strong North American market son Friday point to higher open for stocks on Monday. 
A heavy slate of earnings reporters awaits in the week ahead.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 20–24): Subdued Volumes Ahead of Busy Earnings Schedule

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation edged up to 3%YoY in Sep'25, after a 0.3%MoM increase. Markets cheered, as these were lower than expectations, but MoM-annualized inflation is running well above the 2% target. </li>
<li>The Powell Fed's politically-driven 75bp of rate cuts in Sep-Nov'24 are now obliging it to effectively move to a 3%YoY inflation target; a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week. </li>
<li>Base money contracted US$88.8bn in Mar-Aug'25, so M2 growth was modest (4.8%YoY). But the rise in crude prices (post-Russian sanctions) will raise inflation past 3%, precluding any Dec'25 rate cut. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation edged up to 3%YoY in Sep'25, after a 0.3%MoM increase. Markets cheered, as these were lower than expectations, but MoM-annualized inflation is running well above the 2% target. 
The Powell Fed's politically-driven 75bp of rate cuts in Sep-Nov'24 are now obliging it to effectively move to a 3%YoY inflation target; a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week. 
Base money contracted US$88.8bn in Mar-Aug'25, so M2 growth was modest (4.8%YoY). But the rise in crude prices (post-Russian sanctions) will raise inflation past 3%, precluding any Dec'25 rate cut. 


US: Inflation Edges Up, but Previous Policy Errors Must Be Atoned with Rate Cut Now

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>UST yields rose 2-4 bps on Friday, as haven flows into treasuries eased after US President Donald Trump indicated that high tariffs on China would not be sustainable.</li>
<li>Yields on 2Y and 10Y USTs rose 3 bps to 3.46% and 4.01%, respectively. Equities ended higher, recovering from declines earlier in the day.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq both increased 0.5% to 6,664 and 22,680, respectively.</li>
</ul>


UST yields rose 2-4 bps on Friday, as haven flows into treasuries eased after US President Donald Trump indicated that high tariffs on China would not be sustainable.
Yields on 2Y and 10Y USTs rose 3 bps to 3.46% and 4.01%, respectively. Equities ended higher, recovering from declines earlier in the day.
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq both increased 0.5% to 6,664 and 22,680, respectively.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>After 5.5-months, SPX broke below its 20-dayMA in decisive fashion on Friday.6569 has been our level that needs to break in order for us to believe a pullback has begun</li>
<li>SPX made a low of 6551 on Friday (less than 20 points or 0.3% from our 6569 level), meaning it was NOT a decisive breakdown (in time or price).</li>
<li>As a result, our near-term bullish outlook since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact, and it will stay that way as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569.</li>
</ul>


After 5.5-months, SPX broke below its 20-dayMA in decisive fashion on Friday.6569 has been our level that needs to break in order for us to believe a pullback has begun
SPX made a low of 6551 on Friday (less than 20 points or 0.3% from our 6569 level), meaning it was NOT a decisive breakdown (in time or price).
As a result, our near-term bullish outlook since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact, and it will stay that way as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569.


6550-6569 S&P 500 Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish, But Late-October Consolidation Possible

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

Rising volatility and firm seasonal patterns define November’s setup, though shifts in vol premium suggest a more fragile market backdrop.

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 20–24): Subdued Volumes Ahead of Busy Earnings Schedule

Hong Kong equities extended their rebound with stronger breadth and cooler volatility, setting the stage for a busy earnings week. Strong NA...

John Ley

US: Inflation Edges Up, but Previous Policy Errors Must Be Atoned with Rate Cut Now

CPI inflation up 3%YoY in Sep'25, but a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week as the Powell Fed adjusts to a 3% inflation target to atone for Sep...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

UST yields rose 2-4 bps on Friday, as haven flows into treasuries eased after US President Donald Trump indicated that high tariffs on China would...

Lucror Analytics

6550-6569 S&P 500 Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish, But Late-October Consolidation Possible

6550-6569 $SPX Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish Near-Term and Intermediate-Term, But late-October Consolidation Possible Before Year-End...

Vermilion Research

Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

Rising volatility and firm seasonal patterns define November’s setup, though shifts in vol premium suggest a more fragile market backdrop.

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 20–24): Subdued Volumes Ahead of Busy Earnings Schedule

Hong Kong equities extended their rebound with stronger breadth and cooler volatility, setting the stage for a busy earnings week. Strong NA...

John Ley

US: Inflation Edges Up, but Previous Policy Errors Must Be Atoned with Rate Cut Now

​CPI inflation up 3%YoY in Sep'25, but a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week as the Powell Fed adjusts to a 3% inflation target to atone for Sep...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

UST yields rose 2-4 bps on Friday, as haven flows into treasuries eased after US President Donald Trump indicated that high tariffs on China would...

Lucror Analytics

6550-6569 S&P 500 Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish, But Late-October Consolidation Possible

6550-6569 $SPX Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish Near-Term and Intermediate-Term, But late-October Consolidation Possible Before Year-End...

Vermilion Research

CPI inflation up 3%YoY in Sep'25, but a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week as the Powell Fed adjusts to a 3% inflation target to atone for Sep...