Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With CPI inflation at 2.7%YoY in Jun-Jul'25, and PCE inflation at 2.6% in June, a belated rate cut is highly probable at the next FOMC meeting in Sep'25. </li>
<li>Declining oil prices (-9.5%YoY in Jul'25) were a major factor enabling headline inflation to stay well-contained, alongside mild M2 growth (just +4.7%YoY as of Jun'25). </li>
<li>Base effects will cease to be helpful after Oct'25, as oil prices had declined from Nov'24. Tariffs pushing headline PCE inflation toward 3%YoY will preclude further rate cuts.  </li>
</ul>


With CPI inflation at 2.7%YoY in Jun-Jul'25, and PCE inflation at 2.6% in June, a belated rate cut is highly probable at the next FOMC meeting in Sep'25. 
Declining oil prices (-9.5%YoY in Jul'25) were a major factor enabling headline inflation to stay well-contained, alongside mild M2 growth (just +4.7%YoY as of Jun'25). 
Base effects will cease to be helpful after Oct'25, as oil prices had declined from Nov'24. Tariffs pushing headline PCE inflation toward 3%YoY will preclude further rate cuts.  


US: Rate Cut Imminent at Last, but Chances of More Are Slim as Oil's Benefits Fade

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.7%).</li><li>Energy Technology (41% of the index) was up 2.7%, while Transportation Solutions (33% of the index) was up 1.2%, Climate Tech and Clean Tech (19% of the index) was down 2.2%, and Climate Tech Mining and Processing (7% of the index) was up 8.0%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: CGEH, PEV, CWSFF, LISMF, FCSMF, NRGV, TLOFF, ATLX, ALLIF, ORGN</li></ul>

Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.7%).Energy Technology (41% of the index) was up 2.7%, while Transportation Solutions (33% of the index) was up 1.2%, Climate Tech and Clean Tech (19% of the index) was down 2.2%, and Climate Tech Mining and Processing (7% of the index) was up 8.0%.Top 10 Performers: CGEH, PEV, CWSFF, LISMF, FCSMF, NRGV, TLOFF, ATLX, ALLIF, ORGN

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on VGAS - August 11, 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.</li>
<li>With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. </li>
<li>This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.
With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. 
This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.


Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

<ul><li>This week, we are introducing modifications to our WTR Sustainable Investing Index.</li><li>Please see “About the WTR Index” on this page for the new description.</li><li>Aside from changes to the sector and sub-sector groupings, we now include only stocks with market caps greater than $2.0 million and less than $10 billion, so the new index reflects small- cap and mid-cap companies.</li></ul>

This week, we are introducing modifications to our WTR Sustainable Investing Index.Please see “About the WTR Index” on this page for the new description.Aside from changes to the sector and sub-sector groupings, we now include only stocks with market caps greater than $2.0 million and less than $10 billion, so the new index reflects small- cap and mid-cap companies.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on BNRG - Jul 28, 2025

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US: Rate Cut Imminent at Last, but Chances of More Are Slim as Oil's Benefits Fade

Inflation likely to prompt rate cut in Sep'25 as declining oil prices and mild M2 growth contain headline inflation. Positive YoY oil inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on VGAS - August 11, 2025

Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (up...

Water Tower Research

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Was That It? $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Discretionary $XLY to market weight and Energy $XLE to underweight; Growth vs. Value Breaking Out; Market...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on BNRG - Jul 28, 2025

This week, we are introducing modifications to our WTR Sustainable Investing Index. Please see “About the WTR Index” on this page for the new...

Water Tower Research

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

US: Rate Cut Imminent at Last, but Chances of More Are Slim as Oil's Benefits Fade

​Inflation likely to prompt rate cut in Sep'25 as declining oil prices and mild M2 growth contain headline inflation. Positive YoY oil inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on VGAS - August 11, 2025

Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (up...

Water Tower Research

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Was That It? $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Discretionary $XLY to market weight and Energy $XLE to underweight; Growth vs. Value Breaking Out; Market...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on BNRG - Jul 28, 2025

This week, we are introducing modifications to our WTR Sustainable Investing Index. Please see “About the WTR Index” on this page for the new...

Water Tower Research

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

Inflation likely to prompt rate cut in Sep'25 as declining oil prices and mild M2 growth contain headline inflation. Positive YoY oil inflation...