Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>After 5.5-months, SPX broke below its 20-dayMA in decisive fashion on Friday.6569 has been our level that needs to break in order for us to believe a pullback has begun</li>
<li>SPX made a low of 6551 on Friday (less than 20 points or 0.3% from our 6569 level), meaning it was NOT a decisive breakdown (in time or price).</li>
<li>As a result, our near-term bullish outlook since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact, and it will stay that way as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569.</li>
</ul>


After 5.5-months, SPX broke below its 20-dayMA in decisive fashion on Friday.6569 has been our level that needs to break in order for us to believe a pullback has begun
SPX made a low of 6551 on Friday (less than 20 points or 0.3% from our 6569 level), meaning it was NOT a decisive breakdown (in time or price).
As a result, our near-term bullish outlook since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact, and it will stay that way as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569.


6550-6569 S&P 500 Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish, But Late-October Consolidation Possible

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hype surrounding the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) has increased in 2025, despite a slowing economy. While new economy sectors have contributed to growth,  not all is AI-related.</li>
<li>There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s surrounding hype about the beneficial impact of technological innovation on corporate performance. S&amp;P500 leadership is priced to perfection.</li>
<li>Current US equity leadership valuations are exposed to threats over the next 9 months, including stress in credit markets due to high bond issuance by companies in AI-related activity.</li>
</ul>


Hype surrounding the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) has increased in 2025, despite a slowing economy. While new economy sectors have contributed to growth,  not all is AI-related.
There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s surrounding hype about the beneficial impact of technological innovation on corporate performance. S&amp;P500 leadership is priced to perfection.
Current US equity leadership valuations are exposed to threats over the next 9 months, including stress in credit markets due to high bond issuance by companies in AI-related activity.


US Equities: Maintaining Elevated Leadership Valuations Will Require Upside Surprises

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.0%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.0%).</li><li>Energy Technology (42% of the index) was up 1.4%, while Transportation Solutions (33% of the index) was down 1.8%, Climate Tech and Clean Tech (18% of the index) was down 0.6%, and Climate Tech Mining and Processing (7% of the index) was down 3.7%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: WNDW, POLA, STTDF, ALLIF, LOOP, RAIN, IONR, ZTEK, AWLIF, AKCCF</li></ul>

Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.0%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.0%).Energy Technology (42% of the index) was up 1.4%, while Transportation Solutions (33% of the index) was down 1.8%, Climate Tech and Clean Tech (18% of the index) was down 0.6%, and Climate Tech Mining and Processing (7% of the index) was down 3.7%.Top 10 Performers: WNDW, POLA, STTDF, ALLIF, LOOP, RAIN, IONR, ZTEK, AWLIF, AKCCF

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Eco Wave Power (WAVE) - September 8, 2025

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to remain volatile today, with resistance at 1,273/1,284 points and support at 1,260/1,250 points.</li><li>Domestically, sentiment has turned positive after parliament approved Anutin Charnvirakul as the new Prime Minister, helping restore investor confidence.</li><li>The next step is royal endorsement, followed by the appointment of the new Cabinet.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to remain volatile today, with resistance at 1,273/1,284 points and support at 1,260/1,250 points.Domestically, sentiment has turned positive after parliament approved Anutin Charnvirakul as the new Prime Minister, helping restore investor confidence.The next step is royal endorsement, followed by the appointment of the new Cabinet.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 8, 2025

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

6550-6569 S&P 500 Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish, But Late-October Consolidation Possible

6550-6569 $SPX Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish Near-Term and Intermediate-Term, But late-October Consolidation Possible Before Year-End...

Vermilion Research

US Equities: Maintaining Elevated Leadership Valuations Will Require Upside Surprises

There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s about the benefits of technological innovation on corporate...

DeSaque Macro Research

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Eco Wave Power (WAVE) - September 8, 2025

Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.4% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.0%), and the Nasdaq Index...

Water Tower Research

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 8, 2025

Domestically, sentiment has turned positive after parliament approved Anutin Charnvirakul as the new Prime Minister, helping restore investor...

Krungthai XSpring

6550-6569 S&P 500 Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish, But Late-October Consolidation Possible

6550-6569 $SPX Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish Near-Term and Intermediate-Term, But late-October Consolidation Possible Before Year-End...

Vermilion Research

US Equities: Maintaining Elevated Leadership Valuations Will Require Upside Surprises

There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s about the benefits of technological innovation on corporate...

DeSaque Macro Research

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Eco Wave Power (WAVE) - September 8, 2025

Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.4% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.0%), and the Nasdaq Index...

Water Tower Research

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 8, 2025

Domestically, sentiment has turned positive after parliament approved Anutin Charnvirakul as the new Prime Minister, helping restore investor...

Krungthai XSpring

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...