Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hype surrounding the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) has increased in 2025, despite a slowing economy. While new economy sectors have contributed to growth,  not all is AI-related.</li>
<li>There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s surrounding hype about the beneficial impact of technological innovation on corporate performance. S&amp;P500 leadership is priced to perfection.</li>
<li>Current US equity leadership valuations are exposed to threats over the next 9 months, including stress in credit markets due to high bond issuance by companies in AI-related activity.</li>
</ul>


Hype surrounding the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) has increased in 2025, despite a slowing economy. While new economy sectors have contributed to growth,  not all is AI-related.
There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s surrounding hype about the beneficial impact of technological innovation on corporate performance. S&amp;P500 leadership is priced to perfection.
Current US equity leadership valuations are exposed to threats over the next 9 months, including stress in credit markets due to high bond issuance by companies in AI-related activity.


US Equities: Maintaining Elevated Leadership Valuations Will Require Upside Surprises

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

<ul>
<li>Amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, a strategic approach to volatility across key global indices is being considered, aiming to capitalize on anticipated market shifts.</li>
<li>The evolving political landscape in Japan, alongside a unique monetary policy trajectory, presents distinct volatility opportunities compared to volatility markets in the US and Europe.</li>
<li>Part I explores a multi-leg volatility strategy, designed to leverage specific market conditions. Part II is a deep dive into VIX, VNKY, VSTOXX trading.</li>
</ul>


Amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, a strategic approach to volatility across key global indices is being considered, aiming to capitalize on anticipated market shifts.
The evolving political landscape in Japan, alongside a unique monetary policy trajectory, presents distinct volatility opportunities compared to volatility markets in the US and Europe.
Part I explores a multi-leg volatility strategy, designed to leverage specific market conditions. Part II is a deep dive into VIX, VNKY, VSTOXX trading.


The Volatility Playbook: Japan Vs. Developed Markets

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.</li>
<li>This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.

Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.


Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
<li>
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US Equities: Maintaining Elevated Leadership Valuations Will Require Upside Surprises

There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s about the benefits of technological innovation on corporate...

DeSaque Macro Research

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Volatility Playbook: Japan Vs. Developed Markets

A global vol trading approach amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, with a focus on long vol opportunities in...

Jay Cameron

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

Friday’s sell-off hit China ADRs and pushed implied volatility higher, but not all stocks were affected equally. This Insight details the price...

Gaudenz Schneider

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

US Equities: Maintaining Elevated Leadership Valuations Will Require Upside Surprises

There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s about the benefits of technological innovation on corporate...

DeSaque Macro Research

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Volatility Playbook: Japan Vs. Developed Markets

​A global vol trading approach amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, with a focus on long vol opportunities in...

Jay Cameron

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

Friday’s sell-off hit China ADRs and pushed implied volatility higher, but not all stocks were affected equally. This Insight details the price...

Gaudenz Schneider

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

A global vol trading approach amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, with a focus on long vol opportunities in...