Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.</li>
<li>Since our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-tactical-outlook-week-of-june-30-july-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week</a>, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. </li>
<li>Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.
</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.
Since our Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. 
Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.



Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, 2025. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, now face a return to steep US tariffs.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Markets reacted sharply to the original tariff announcement in April, with volatility peaking. While implied volatility eased in May, it has since climbed again, suggesting rising investor concern.</li>
<li>
Why Read: As markets face renewed risk of stress, this Insight helps investors understand which markets and sectors are most exposed, how volatility is evolving, and how best to position.</li>
</ul>



Context: The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, 2025. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, now face a return to steep US tariffs.

Highlights: Markets reacted sharply to the original tariff announcement in April, with volatility peaking. While implied volatility eased in May, it has since climbed again, suggesting rising investor concern.

Why Read: As markets face renewed risk of stress, this Insight helps investors understand which markets and sectors are most exposed, how volatility is evolving, and how best to position.


Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> is approaching oversold territory, with limited upside potential. Quantitative analysis outlines key support and resistance levels with high reversal probabilities.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: The proposed options strategy profits if the stock remains range-bound between ~172 and ~190 by 17 July expiry. The setup offers a ~1.0% maximum return within 10 days.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking to monetize muted price action around a high-probability range.</li>
</ul>



Context: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) is approaching oversold territory, with limited upside potential. Quantitative analysis outlines key support and resistance levels with high reversal probabilities.

Trade Idea: The proposed options strategy profits if the stock remains range-bound between ~172 and ~190 by 17 July expiry. The setup offers a ~1.0% maximum return within 10 days.

Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking to monetize muted price action around a high-probability range.


Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) In Oversold Territory: Options Strategy on Reversal Range

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.</li>
<li>
Highlights: The week of July 7 to July 11 is packed with the expiration of the pause on reciprocal tariffs, two Central Bank decisions, and options expiries.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.

Highlights: The week of July 7 to July 11 is packed with the expiration of the pause on reciprocal tariffs, two Central Bank decisions, and options expiries.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Across markets realized volatility generally came in below implied, making June favorable for volatility sellers.</li>
<li>July has historically rewarded vol sellers; we reference a prior Insight on volatility during Trump’s first term highlighting a large deviation from average in July.</li>
<li>Average July returns are mixed, but there are clear standouts among the macro markets.</li>
</ul>


Across markets realized volatility generally came in below implied, making June favorable for volatility sellers.
July has historically rewarded vol sellers; we reference a prior Insight on volatility during Trump’s first term highlighting a large deviation from average in July.
Average July returns are mixed, but there are clear standouts among the macro markets.


Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

Gaudenz Schneider

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) In Oversold Territory: Options Strategy on Reversal Range

CBA AU near oversold levels, limited upside potential. Options strategy for range-bound trading. Actionable trade idea with defined risk/reward...

Gaudenz Schneider

The Month Ahead: Key Events in July 2025

Market volatility can be influenced by Central Bank decisions, index changes, and political events. Plan ahead for investment and trading decisions.

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning

An in-depth look at price and volatilty across macro markets. July has historically been fertile ground for volatiilty sellers and we take a deeper...

John Ley

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

​Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

​The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

Gaudenz Schneider

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) In Oversold Territory: Options Strategy on Reversal Range

​CBA AU near oversold levels, limited upside potential. Options strategy for range-bound trading. Actionable trade idea with defined risk/reward...

Gaudenz Schneider

The Month Ahead: Key Events in July 2025

​Market volatility can be influenced by Central Bank decisions, index changes, and political events. Plan ahead for investment and trading decisions.

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning

An in-depth look at price and volatilty across macro markets. July has historically been fertile ground for volatiilty sellers and we take a deeper...

John Ley

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

CBA AU near oversold levels, limited upside potential. Options strategy for range-bound trading. Actionable trade idea with defined risk/reward...

Market volatility can be influenced by Central Bank decisions, index changes, and political events. Plan ahead for investment and trading decisions.