Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, S&amp;P/ASX50 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX</a> and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.</li>
<li>While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27220:1" rel="noopener">Viva Energy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nick-scali-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20803:1" rel="noopener">Nick Scali</a>.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, S&amp;P/ASX50 Index and S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index in June.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.
While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in Perseus Mining, Viva Energy and Nick Scali.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Bank of Japan, the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Korea.</li>
<li>
Elections: Australia is holding national elections on 3 May while South Korea has presidential elections in early June.</li>
<li>
Various exchange holidays in several countries at the beginning of the month, and in the last week of May.</li>
</ul>



Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Bank of Japan, the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Korea.

Elections: Australia is holding national elections on 3 May while South Korea has presidential elections in early June.

Various exchange holidays in several countries at the beginning of the month, and in the last week of May.


<ul>
<li>There was big passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> in March from S&amp;P/ASX trackers following the completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> should be added to a global index in May and those passive trackers will have a lot of stock to buy.</li>
<li>While there will be positioning in the stock, it appears lighter than the estimated passive buying. Shorts are being covered and that could provide a boost.</li>
</ul>


There was big passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) in March from S&amp;P/ASX trackers following the completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) should be added to a global index in May and those passive trackers will have a lot of stock to buy.
While there will be positioning in the stock, it appears lighter than the estimated passive buying. Shorts are being covered and that could provide a boost.


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> shareholders approving the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>, we move to the phase of passive index flows. </li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/generation-development-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14945:1" rel="noopener">Generation Development Group (GDG AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 23 April to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be passive inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.</li>
</ul>


With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows. 
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU). 
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.


De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is expected to complete in the next 3 weeks.</li>
<li>There will be an ad hoc inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> from a bunch of trackers of different indices.</li>
<li>The acquisition brings <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> close to inclusion in the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index, but it's not there yet.</li>
</ul>



Northern Star Resources (NST AU)'s acquisition of De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is expected to complete in the next 3 weeks.
There will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from a bunch of trackers of different indices.
The acquisition brings Northern Star Resources (NST AU) close to inclusion in the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index, but it's not there yet.


Northern Star's Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices

There could be 10 changes for the ASX index family in June. Shorts have picked up in a few names. There is positioning in the forecast adds and...

Brian Freitas

The Month Ahead: Key Events in May 2025

May will be a busy month with central bank rate decisions, elections in Australia and South Korea. Dates of exchange holidays and monthly option...

Gaudenz Schneider

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner

Sigma Healthcare should be added to a global index in May. Shorts are being covered and positioning looks smaller than the estimated passive...

Brian Freitas

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

There will be passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST) today at the close following the acquisition of De Grey Mining. The stock is up a lot...

Brian Freitas

Northern Star's Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

The Scheme Meeting is being held today. Proxy votes in favour make up 65.5% of shares outstanding and 99.38% of total proxy votes received. This...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices

There could be 10 changes for the ASX index family in June. Shorts have picked up in a few names. There is positioning in the forecast adds and...

Brian Freitas

The Month Ahead: Key Events in May 2025

​May will be a busy month with central bank rate decisions, elections in Australia and South Korea. Dates of exchange holidays and monthly option...

Gaudenz Schneider

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner

Sigma Healthcare should be added to a global index in May. Shorts are being covered and positioning looks smaller than the estimated passive...

Brian Freitas

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

There will be passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST) today at the close following the acquisition of De Grey Mining. The stock is up a lot...

Brian Freitas

Northern Star's Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

The Scheme Meeting is being held today. Proxy votes in favour make up 65.5% of shares outstanding and 99.38% of total proxy votes received. This...

Brian Freitas

May will be a busy month with central bank rate decisions, elections in Australia and South Korea. Dates of exchange holidays and monthly option...