Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
US steel and aluminum tariffs (effective 12 March US time) will take effect on March 13 across the Asia-Pacific region. Volatility can be expected in Japan, South Korea, India, China.</li>
<li>Major quarterly derivatives expirations will occur on March 13 in Japan (Nikkei 225, TOPIX, Stocks), South Korea (KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, Stocks), and India (BSE Stock Futures and Options).</li>
<li>Earnings announcements for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group (1299 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK/LI US)</a> are scheduled for March 14, while India's markets will be closed that day for the Holi holiday.</li>
</ul>



US steel and aluminum tariffs (effective 12 March US time) will take effect on March 13 across the Asia-Pacific region. Volatility can be expected in Japan, South Korea, India, China.
Major quarterly derivatives expirations will occur on March 13 in Japan (Nikkei 225, TOPIX, Stocks), South Korea (KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, Stocks), and India (BSE Stock Futures and Options).
Earnings announcements for AIA Group (1299 HK) and Li Auto (2015 HK/LI US) are scheduled for March 14, while India's markets will be closed that day for the Holi holiday.


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Asian indexes as well as macro assets.</li>
<li>Provides an in-depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price are likely to unfold for March.</li>
<li>HSI, Nifty, SP500, SPASX200 and Gold are all highlighted as having tradeable patterns in March.</li>
</ul>


Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Asian indexes as well as macro assets.
Provides an in-depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price are likely to unfold for March.
HSI, Nifty, SP500, SPASX200 and Gold are all highlighted as having tradeable patterns in March.


Macro Vol Monthly - March:  Weakness Could Continue into Mid-March

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Several US tariffs are expected in March, but their implementation remains uncertain and is part of ongoing negotiations.</li>
<li>Central banks in India, Japan, and the US will announce rate decisions in March, with India possibly cutting rates by 0.25%.</li>
<li>Major HK stocks are set to announce earnings in March, and index changes will occur in the S&amp;P 500, Nifty 50, S&amp;P/ASX 200, and HSCEI indices.</li>
</ul>


Several US tariffs are expected in March, but their implementation remains uncertain and is part of ongoing negotiations.
Central banks in India, Japan, and the US will announce rate decisions in March, with India possibly cutting rates by 0.25%.
Major HK stocks are set to announce earnings in March, and index changes will occur in the S&amp;P 500, Nifty 50, S&amp;P/ASX 200, and HSCEI indices.


March Key Events in Asia-Pac: Tariffs, Rates, Earnings, and Indices in Focus

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be ad hoc change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> prior to the announcement of the changes at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> could stop trading next week following the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. The Royal Court of Jersey could sanction the scheme on 5 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mesoblast-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:769:1" rel="noopener">Mesoblast (MSB AU)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the index, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digico-infrastructure-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44091:1" rel="noopener">DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU)</a>. The stock that misses out will be added at the regular rebalance. </li>
</ul>


There could be ad hoc change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) prior to the announcement of the changes at the March rebalance.

Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) could stop trading next week following the acquisition by Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). The Royal Court of Jersey could sanction the scheme on 5 March.

Mesoblast (MSB AU) is a high probability inclusion to the index, followed by DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU). The stock that misses out will be added at the regular rebalance. 


ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Mesoblast (MSB) Could Replace Arcadium Lithium (LTM) Next Week

<ul>
<li>The United States' tariff against Mexico and Canada, effective March 4, 2025, could disrupt global markets, with potential volatility spikes similar to early February's events.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-100-index-ukx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22904:1" rel="noopener">FTSE 100</a>: low implied volatility offers opportunities for protective puts, </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>: an volatility premium suggests a relative value volatility arbitrage play. </li>
</ul>


The United States' tariff against Mexico and Canada, effective March 4, 2025, could disrupt global markets, with potential volatility spikes similar to early February's events.

S&amp;P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100: low implied volatility offers opportunities for protective puts, 

KOSPI 200 and Nikkei 225: an volatility premium suggests a relative value volatility arbitrage play. 


Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in S&P/ASX 200, KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100.

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

The Week Ahead in Options - 10 March

US steel and aluminum tariffs to impact Asia-Pacific markets on March 13. Quarterly derivatives expirations in Japan, South Korea, and India....

Gaudenz Schneider

Macro Vol Monthly - March: Weakness Could Continue into Mid-March

March market outlook for price and volatility across Asian indexes and macro assets, highlighting tradeable patterns in HSI, Nifty, SP500,...

John Ley

March Key Events in Asia-Pac: Tariffs, Rates, Earnings, and Indices in Focus

March will be a busy month with US tariffs, central bank rate decisions, major HK stock earnings, and index changes on the horizon.

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Mesoblast (MSB) Could Replace Arcadium Lithium (LTM) Next Week

Arcadium Lithium could stop trading next week. Mesoblast could be added to the ASX200 Index. There is a lot for passive trackers to buy and...

Brian Freitas

Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in S&P/ASX 200, KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100.

US tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective 4 March as a potentially adverse market event. S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100 offer protective put opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

The Week Ahead in Options - 10 March

​US steel and aluminum tariffs to impact Asia-Pacific markets on March 13. Quarterly derivatives expirations in Japan, South Korea, and India....

Gaudenz Schneider

Macro Vol Monthly - March: Weakness Could Continue into Mid-March

​March market outlook for price and volatility across Asian indexes and macro assets, highlighting tradeable patterns in HSI, Nifty, SP500,...

John Ley

March Key Events in Asia-Pac: Tariffs, Rates, Earnings, and Indices in Focus

​March will be a busy month with US tariffs, central bank rate decisions, major HK stock earnings, and index changes on the horizon.

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Mesoblast (MSB) Could Replace Arcadium Lithium (LTM) Next Week

Arcadium Lithium could stop trading next week. Mesoblast could be added to the ASX200 Index. There is a lot for passive trackers to buy and...

Brian Freitas

Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in S&P/ASX 200, KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100.

​US tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective 4 March as a potentially adverse market event. S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100 offer protective put opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

US steel and aluminum tariffs to impact Asia-Pacific markets on March 13. Quarterly derivatives expirations in Japan, South Korea, and India....

March market outlook for price and volatility across Asian indexes and macro assets, highlighting tradeable patterns in HSI, Nifty, SP500,...

March will be a busy month with US tariffs, central bank rate decisions, major HK stock earnings, and index changes on the horizon.

US tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective 4 March as a potentially adverse market event. S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100 offer protective put opportunities.