Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> on Friday.</li>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.</li>
<li>Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.</li>
</ul>


The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) on Friday.
The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.
Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Samsonite reported a beat in its 1H results with both gross margins and adjusted EBITDA margins kicking-in at 58.8% and 18.8% (vs CMBI estimates 57.0% and 17.2%), respectively.</li><li>Major driving forces were 1) 116% stack growth in organic sales vs 2019, 2) higher TUMI contribution that boosts gross margins, and 3) a 3.2pp YoY lower fixed SG&amp;A base as a result of ongoing cost initiative since 2019.</li><li>In our view, Samsonite has successfully steered itself out of the pandemic doldrums and the strength we have seen in 1H will continue to extent into 2H of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsonite reported a beat in its 1H results with both gross margins and adjusted EBITDA margins kicking-in at 58.8% and 18.8% (vs CMBI estimates 57.0% and 17.2%), respectively.Major driving forces were 1) 116% stack growth in organic sales vs 2019, 2) higher TUMI contribution that boosts gross margins, and 3) a 3.2pp YoY lower fixed SG&amp;A base as a result of ongoing cost initiative since 2019.In our view, Samsonite has successfully steered itself out of the pandemic doldrums and the strength we have seen in 1H will continue to extent into 2H of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsonite (1910 HK) – 2Q Rev/Np +33%/49%; Strength Extending to 2H

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at some of the names with high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2023.</li>
<li>The index changes for the September 2023 rebalance could be announced in mid-August and implemented in early-September.</li>
<li>Although the index methodology is highly subjective and predicting index changes is extremely tricky, the HSI is an important index in the region and here are our thoughts for September. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at some of the names with high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2023.
The index changes for the September 2023 rebalance could be announced in mid-August and implemented in early-September.
Although the index methodology is highly subjective and predicting index changes is extremely tricky, the HSI is an important index in the region and here are our thoughts for September. 


Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Sep 23: Beigene Vs Peers An Interesting Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In late 2018, there were reports that French beauty retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> had <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e67c6854-f276-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">drawn interest</a> from Advent International. That rumour came to naught. </li>
<li>Similarly, late last month, L'Occitane <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0727/2023072700083.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clarified media reports</a> that it had not received any Offer or proposal. </li>
<li>After going into a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0809/2023080900103.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trading halt</a> this morning, reportedly (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/loccitane-owner-advanced-talks-take-it-private-sources-2023-08-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a>) Chairman Reinold Geiger has been discussing a possible offer of ~HK$35 for each L'Occitane share he doesn't already own.</li>
</ul>


In late 2018, there were reports that French beauty retailer L'Occitane (973 HK) had drawn interest from Advent International. That rumour came to naught. 
Similarly, late last month, L'Occitane clarified media reports that it had not received any Offer or proposal. 
After going into a trading halt this morning, reportedly (Reuters) Chairman Reinold Geiger has been discussing a possible offer of ~HK$35 for each L'Occitane share he doesn't already own.


L'Occitane (973 HK): Ripe for a Makeover?

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Indexes has started a consultation on the eligibility of Foreign Companies in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, a review of the seven Industry Groups and number of HK constituents.</li>
<li>We agree that foreign companies should be added to the index, no change needed to the Industry Groups, and the cap on the number of HK constituents should be removed.</li>
<li>There are a few potential adds due to the removal of the cap on HK companies, while there are potential foreign company additions later this year or in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Indexes has started a consultation on the eligibility of Foreign Companies in the Hang Seng Index, a review of the seven Industry Groups and number of HK constituents.
We agree that foreign companies should be added to the index, no change needed to the Industry Groups, and the cap on the number of HK constituents should be removed.
There are a few potential adds due to the removal of the cap on HK companies, while there are potential foreign company additions later this year or in 2024.


HSI Market Consultation: Foreign Companies, Industry Groups, HK Companies

United States

Samsonite Group S.A. is a global leader in the lifestyle bag industry, specializing in the design, manufacture, sourcing, and distribution of luggage, business and computer bags, outdoor and casual bags, and travel accessories under various brands including Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister. The company was founded in 1910 in Denver, Colorado, and its registered office is in Luxembourg.

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Samsonite (1910 HK)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas