Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SK hynix reported another stunning quarter: revenue up 39% YoY, Operating Profit up 62%</li>
<li>The soft guidance for 2026 points to increasing bit growth and we know that ASP are increasing. As SK hynix says "explosive AI growth".  </li>
<li>Best 2 Memory stocks 1. SK hynix 2. Micron.  Samsung? we still need a bit more clarity on HBM3E / 4  qualifications</li>
</ul>


SK hynix reported another stunning quarter: revenue up 39% YoY, Operating Profit up 62%
The soft guidance for 2026 points to increasing bit growth and we know that ASP are increasing. As SK hynix says "explosive AI growth".  
Best 2 Memory stocks 1. SK hynix 2. Micron.  Samsung? we still need a bit more clarity on HBM3E / 4  qualifications


SK Hynix 3Q25: Another Stunning Quarter. More Upside in 2026.

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix and Micron stocks were lagging TSMC and Nvidia as it took ~2 years for HBM to suck up enough Commodity DRAM capacity to stabilize the Commodity market</li>
<li>That’s now done, we’re just at the beginning of spectacular HBM growth for at least 2 more years. The reasons are known: density increases, speed increases, dies thinner...</li>
<li>Stocks: keep or buy Micron and SK Hynix. Samsung remains unattractive imo</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix and Micron stocks were lagging TSMC and Nvidia as it took ~2 years for HBM to suck up enough Commodity DRAM capacity to stabilize the Commodity market
That’s now done, we’re just at the beginning of spectacular HBM growth for at least 2 more years. The reasons are known: density increases, speed increases, dies thinner...
Stocks: keep or buy Micron and SK Hynix. Samsung remains unattractive imo


HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.</li>
<li>UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.</li>
<li>For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.</li>
</ul>


A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.
UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.
For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.


A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

<ul>
<li>US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     </li>
<li>It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   </li>
<li>For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).</li>
</ul>


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     
It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   
For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).


Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

<ul>
<li>ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) </li>
<li>But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. </li>
<li>The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.</li>
</ul>


ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) 
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. 
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.


ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

SK Hynix 3Q25: Another Stunning Quarter. More Upside in 2026.

SK hynix's impressive quarter results show significant revenue and profit growth, with a positive outlook for the future driven by increasing bit...

Nicolas Baratte

HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning

HBM revenue and profit growth set to soar, Micron and SK Hynix stocks recommended for investment. Samsung not as appealing.

Nicolas Baratte

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SK Hynix 3Q25: Another Stunning Quarter. More Upside in 2026.

​SK hynix's impressive quarter results show significant revenue and profit growth, with a positive outlook for the future driven by increasing bit...

Nicolas Baratte

HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning

​HBM revenue and profit growth set to soar, Micron and SK Hynix stocks recommended for investment. Samsung not as appealing.

Nicolas Baratte

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

​Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

​US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

​ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

SK hynix's impressive quarter results show significant revenue and profit growth, with a positive outlook for the future driven by increasing bit...

HBM revenue and profit growth set to soar, Micron and SK Hynix stocks recommended for investment. Samsung not as appealing.

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....