Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks</li>
<li>The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks
The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin


High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. </li>
<li>We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. 
We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?


Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Yangtze Memory Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>YMTC, a 3D NAND flash memory IDM, has filed its prospectus with the Shanghai Stock Exchange for a STAR Market listing. CITIC and CSC are the joint sponsors.</li>
<li>We look at the company's core segments: NAND Flash products and other products and services.</li>
<li>We then look at the company's financial profile, profit turnaround, pre-IPO valuation and investor backing.</li>
</ul>


YMTC, a 3D NAND flash memory IDM, has filed its prospectus with the Shanghai Stock Exchange for a STAR Market listing. CITIC and CSC are the joint sponsors.
We look at the company's core segments: NAND Flash products and other products and services.
We then look at the company's financial profile, profit turnaround, pre-IPO valuation and investor backing.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Shenzhen Longsys Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-longsys-electronics-co-ltd-9ad6ee79-c403-4819-a5df-de95777ae2a7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55525:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Longsys Electronics (9976 HK)</a> is a branded independent memory product company. It is seeking to raise US$798 million.     </li>
<li>It designs controllers/firmware, back-end manufacturing (packaging/testing/assembly), and sells memory products (embedded storage, SSDs, mobile storage, DIMMs).</li>
<li>The investment case is bearish as Longsys is a fundamentally commoditised, cyclical, cash-burning company, currently riding an exceptional AI-driven up-cycle.</li>
</ul>



Shenzhen Longsys Electronics (9976 HK) is a branded independent memory product company. It is seeking to raise US$798 million.     
It designs controllers/firmware, back-end manufacturing (packaging/testing/assembly), and sells memory products (embedded storage, SSDs, mobile storage, DIMMs).
The investment case is bearish as Longsys is a fundamentally commoditised, cyclical, cash-burning company, currently riding an exceptional AI-driven up-cycle.


Longsys Electronics H Share Listing (9976 HK): The Investment Case

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>The IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-longsys-electronics-co-ltd-9ad6ee79-c403-4819-a5df-de95777ae2a7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55525:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Longsys Electronics (9976 HK)</a>, a branded independent semiconductor memory product enterprise, does not appear particularly attractive to us.</li>
<li>Although its EPS CAGR will reach 95.5% for FY25-28, the growth is entirely generated in FY26, as market consensus projects a decline in FY27 and FY28.</li>
<li>Its FY27 PER of 8x is higher than global peers, and the steep 45.9% discount to the A-share is justified by the uncertain earnings outlook.</li>
</ul>


The IPO of Shenzhen Longsys Electronics (9976 HK), a branded independent semiconductor memory product enterprise, does not appear particularly attractive to us.
Although its EPS CAGR will reach 95.5% for FY25-28, the growth is entirely generated in FY26, as market consensus projects a decline in FY27 and FY28.
Its FY27 PER of 8x is higher than global peers, and the steep 45.9% discount to the A-share is justified by the uncertain earnings outlook.


Shenzhen Longsys (9976 HK) IPO: Not Too Exciting

United States

SanDisk Corporation designs, develops, and manufactures data storage solutions in a variety of form factors using our flash memory, proprietary controller and firmware technologies. The Company's solutions include removable cards, embedded products, universal serial bus, or USB, drives, digital media players, wafers and components.

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Sandisk Corp (SNDK US)

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $ARKK $URA $HYDR $IONQ $OKLO $BBAI...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

YMTC (长江存储) Pre-IPO: Tearsheet

YMTC has filed a prospectus with the SSE for a STAR listing. In this tearsheet, we look at the company's business and operating profile, its...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shenzhen Longsys (9976 HK) IPO: Not Too Exciting

Shenzhen Longsys H-share is priced at a 45.9% discount to the A-share, but the market's projected earnings decline for FY27-28 is a concern. Its 8x...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $ARKK $URA $HYDR $IONQ $OKLO $BBAI...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

YMTC (长江存储) Pre-IPO: Tearsheet

YMTC has filed a prospectus with the SSE for a STAR listing. In this tearsheet, we look at the company's business and operating profile, its...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Longsys Electronics H Share Listing (9976 HK): The Investment Case

Longsys Electronics is a branded independent memory product company. It is seeking to raise US$798 million. In this note, I discuss the investment...

Arun George

Shenzhen Longsys (9976 HK) IPO: Not Too Exciting

Shenzhen Longsys H-share is priced at a 45.9% discount to the A-share, but the market's projected earnings decline for FY27-28 is a concern. Its 8x...

Osbert Tang, CFA