HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Industry excavator sales grew 5.5% in Sep and wheel loader edged up 0.7%. This marked the first month where both saw YoY growth since mid-2021, signaling a steady recovery.</li>
<li>The recovery is driven by overseas as domestic continued to decline. Usage of special purpose bond proceeds should boost demand from infrastructure but demand from property market will stay lacklustre. </li>
<li>We only find <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK)</a> interesting. For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking (3339 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy (1157 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20183:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy (600031 CH)</a>, market expectations for 2H22 is too high. </li>
</ul>


Industry excavator sales grew 5.5% in Sep and wheel loader edged up 0.7%. This marked the first month where both saw YoY growth since mid-2021, signaling a steady recovery.
The recovery is driven by overseas as domestic continued to decline. Usage of special purpose bond proceeds should boost demand from infrastructure but demand from property market will stay lacklustre. 
We only find Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK) interesting. For Lonking (3339 HK), Zoomlion Heavy (1157 HK) and Sany Heavy (600031 CH), market expectations for 2H22 is too high. 


China Construction Machinery: Light at the End of the Tunnel, Finally

<ul>
<li>Infrastructure, new energy, consumer discretionary and, to a lesser extent, transportation and logistics are sectors that will benefit from extensive government economic supportive policies over the last few days. </li>
<li>Acceleration of special purpose bonds will drive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a>. We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> benefit from new energy initiatives.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a> will be the near-term winner in the consumer discretionary space and so as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Infrastructure, new energy, consumer discretionary and, to a lesser extent, transportation and logistics are sectors that will benefit from extensive government economic supportive policies over the last few days. 
Acceleration of special purpose bonds will drive China Communications Construction (1800 HK). We see China Longyuan Power (916 HK) and Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) benefit from new energy initiatives.

Li Ning (2331 HK) will be the near-term winner in the consumer discretionary space and so as Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK).


Roundup of Government Economic Supportive Policies: Key Winners

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhongji InnoLight / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongji-innolight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55331:1" rel="noopener">Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK)</a>, a leading global provider of optical interconnect solutions, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$7.0 billion.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/innolight-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:247130" rel="noopener">Innolight H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>The proposed AH discount of 23.3% (based on the close on 21 July A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.</li>
</ul>



Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK), a leading global provider of optical interconnect solutions, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$7.0 billion.
I discussed the H Share listing in Innolight H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
The proposed AH discount of 23.3% (based on the close on 21 July A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.


Innolight H Share Listing (3308 HK): Valuation Insights

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Over the past 2 years, Industrials exposure has almost doubled among China A-Share active investors.  Today's weight of 18.7% and overweight of 1.69% are near peak levels.</li>
<li>The most widely held stocks in the sector are CATL (A), Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124 CH) and EVE Energy (300014 CH)</li>
<li>Weight increases in the Industrials sector far outweighed decreases over the last half of 2021. Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) and NARI Technology Co (600406 CH) were among the beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


Over the past 2 years, Industrials exposure has almost doubled among China A-Share active investors.  Today's weight of 18.7% and overweight of 1.69% are near peak levels.
The most widely held stocks in the sector are CATL (A), Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124 CH) and EVE Energy (300014 CH)
Weight increases in the Industrials sector far outweighed decreases over the last half of 2021. Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) and NARI Technology Co (600406 CH) were among the beneficiaries.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Sinotruk Hong Kong / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>German truckmaker, MAN SE (via MAN Finance and Holding) is looking to sell a ~2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotruk-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19764:1" rel="noopener">Sinotruk Hong Kong (3808 HK)</a> to raise upto US$261m via a secondary selldown.</li>
<li>Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Ltd is China’s leading heavy-duty truck manufacturer, focused on commercial vehicles with strong domestic market share, growing exports, and consistent cash generation.</li>
<li>In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


German truckmaker, MAN SE (via MAN Finance and Holding) is looking to sell a ~2% stake in Sinotruk Hong Kong (3808 HK) to raise upto US$261m via a secondary selldown.
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Ltd is China’s leading heavy-duty truck manufacturer, focused on commercial vehicles with strong domestic market share, growing exports, and consistent cash generation.
In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Aequitas: Sinotruk Placement - Third Selldown in Seven Months After Strong Run-Up

China

SANY Heavy Industry Co., Ltd manufactures and markets construction and engineering machinery and related parts. The Company produces and sells concrete pumps, concrete pump vehicles, road rollers, pavers, and other related products. Sany Heavy Industry markets its products worldwide.

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Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)

China Construction Machinery: Light at the End of the Tunnel, Finally

Industry sales of excavator and wheel loader have turned positve in Sep, after a lengthened depressed period since mid-2021. However, 2H22 earnings...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Roundup of Government Economic Supportive Policies: Key Winners

We expect the government economic supportive policies released in the last few days to drive the infrastructure, new energy, consumer discretionary...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China A-Shares: Industrials Revolution

Over the past 2 years, Industrials exposure has almost doubled among China A-Share active investors. Today's weight of 18.7% and overweight of...

Steven Holden

Aequitas: Sinotruk Placement - Third Selldown in Seven Months After Strong Run-Up

German truckmaker, MAN SE (via MAN Finance and Holding) is looking to sell around a 2% stake in Sinotruk (3808.HK) to raise up to US$261m via a...

Akshat Shah

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Construction Machinery: Light at the End of the Tunnel, Finally

Industry sales of excavator and wheel loader have turned positve in Sep, after a lengthened depressed period since mid-2021. However, 2H22 earnings...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Roundup of Government Economic Supportive Policies: Key Winners

We expect the government economic supportive policies released in the last few days to drive the infrastructure, new energy, consumer discretionary...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Innolight H Share Listing (3308 HK): Valuation Insights

InnoLight, a leading global provider of optical interconnect solutions, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$7.0 billion. In this note, I...

Arun George

China A-Shares: Industrials Revolution

Over the past 2 years, Industrials exposure has almost doubled among China A-Share active investors. Today's weight of 18.7% and overweight of...

Steven Holden

Aequitas: Sinotruk Placement - Third Selldown in Seven Months After Strong Run-Up

German truckmaker, MAN SE (via MAN Finance and Holding) is looking to sell around a 2% stake in Sinotruk (3808.HK) to raise up to US$261m via a...

Akshat Shah