Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

One of the enduring questions regarding Japan’s “lost decades of growth” remains the degree to which failure to grow owes to insufficient countermeasures to address (a) demographic changes and (b) belated and incomplete adaptation of the services sector in particular to globalisation.In our view, there are both structural as well as idiosyncratic policy-related contributors to Japan's failure to grow.  As such, a firm grasp of the structural as well as policymaking backdrop of more recent structural reform campaigns is a pre-requisite to meaningful assessment of Abenomics.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/structural-reform-i-the-japanese-financial-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6375">Structural Reform I: The Japanese Financial Sector</a> , we provided an overview of the current structural characteristics of Japan's financial sector, in context of both financial and capital market reforms.  In this instalment, we take a look at the history of financial reform in the context of Japan's political economy.The importance of this historical analysis is as follows: we find that the combination of a strong bureaucracy, a high level of per-capita GDP at the outset (prior to the lost decade) and redistributive dynamics between industrial sectors have softened the impact of deflationary shocks but allowed policy immobilism to flourish.

 One of the enduring questions regarding Japan’s “lost decades of growth” remains the degree to which failure to grow owes to insufficient countermeasures to address (a) demographic changes and (b) belated and incomplete adaptation of the services sector in particular to globalisation.In our view, there are both structural as well as idiosyncratic policy-related contributors to Japan's failure to grow.  As such, a firm grasp of the structural as well as policymaking backdrop of more recent structural reform campaigns is a pre-requisite to meaningful assessment of Abenomics.In Structural Reform I: The Japanese Financial Sector , we provided an overview of the current structural characteristics of Japan's financial sector, in context of both financial and capital market reforms.  In this instalment, we take a look at the history of financial reform in the context of Japan's political economy.The importance of this historical analysis is as follows: we find that the combination of a strong bureaucracy, a high level of per-capita GDP at the outset (prior to the lost decade) and redistributive dynamics between industrial sectors have softened the impact of deflationary shocks but allowed policy immobilism to flourish.

Structural Reform II: Political Economy Backdrop

Macroeconomics

In their policy meeting on September 20-21, the BoJ will be essentially admitting that they can no longer pursue 2% inflation rate target as ardently as they have been. The financial market will probably react negatively as it perceives the change as a step toward tapering. In our view, the result could be similar to what we observed in the US “taper tantrum” in 2013.

In their policy meeting on September 20-21, the BoJ will be essentially admitting that they can no longer pursue 2% inflation rate target as ardently as they have been. The financial market will probably react negatively as it perceives the change as a step toward tapering. In our view, the result could be similar to what we observed in the US “taper tantrum” in 2013.        

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 23 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-ltd-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9672:1" rel="noopener">Global (3271 JP)</a>. Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ronzgun-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40082:1" rel="noopener">Rongzun (1780 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijingwest-industries-interna" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13118:1" rel="noopener">BeijingWest Industries (2339 HK)</a> are suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Takever's Code.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-commodities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ (6670 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 23 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Global (3271 JP). Both Rongzun (1780 HK) and BeijingWest Industries (2339 HK) are suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Takever's Code.
Key updates/news also took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), National Storage REIT (NSR AU), Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), MCJ (6670 JP), and Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: The Global, Insignia Financial, National Storage REIT, MCJ, Takara Bio

<ul>
<li>There's little left in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> if Murakami-san is the sole blocker, as it gets done with him in the back end OR a big bump.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a> is trading around its highest implied stub, post <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smithfield-foods-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44251:1" rel="noopener">Smithfield Foods (SFD US)</a>'s spin-off. Forward growth drivers are more evident in Smithfield and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henan-shuanghui-investment-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20515:1" rel="noopener">Henan Shuanghui (000895 CH)</a>.</li>
<li>For CSRC to pushback on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, it would need to clearly articulate, clear friction points surrounding the deal structure and/or systematic A-share market risks. Neither appears apparent.</li>
</ul>


There's little left in Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) if Murakami-san is the sole blocker, as it gets done with him in the back end OR a big bump.

WH Group (288 HK) is trading around its highest implied stub, post Smithfield Foods (SFD US)'s spin-off. Forward growth drivers are more evident in Smithfield and Henan Shuanghui (000895 CH).
For CSRC to pushback on ENN Energy (2688 HK), it would need to clearly articulate, clear friction points surrounding the deal structure and/or systematic A-share market risks. Neither appears apparent.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sankei Real Estate, WH Group, ENN Energy, Tekscend Photomask

As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boj-the-80-trillion-yen-question" target="_blank">forecast by Europacifica</a>, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160729a.pdf" target="_blank">ETF purchases</a> from JPY3.3trn to JPY6trn by a 7-2 majority vote.  - As anticipated, the BOJ refrained from extreme policies such as unlimited monetisation of government debt ("helicopter money").  - The BOJ also declined to further distort the measure of inflation expectations encapsulated in the JGBi market, or to pressure liquidity further by increasing the…

As forecast by Europacifica, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its ETF purchases from JPY3.3trn to JPY6trn by a 7-2 majority vote.  - As anticipated, the BOJ refrained from extreme policies such as unlimited monetisation of government debt ("helicopter money").  - The BOJ also declined to further distort the measure of inflation expectations encapsulated in the JGBi market, or to pressure liquidity further by increasing the…

BOJ Outcome: Symbolic Stimulus (As We Predicted)

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

Structural Reform II: Political Economy Backdrop

One of the enduring questions regarding Japan’s “lost decades of growth” remains the degree to which failure to grow owes to insufficient...

Naomi Fink

BoJ Tapped to Taper

In their policy meeting on September 20-21, the BoJ will be essentially admitting that they can no longer pursue 2% inflation rate target as...

Naomi Fink

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: The Global, Insignia Financial, National Storage REIT, MCJ, Takara Bio

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sankei Real Estate, WH Group, ENN Energy, Tekscend Photomask

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

BOJ Outcome: Symbolic Stimulus (As We Predicted)

As forecast by Europacifica, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its ETF...

Naomi Fink

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