Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rallies Along With Rebound In Global Tech; Hon Hai, Asustek Top Gainers; KYEC a Top Loser After Announcing China Market Divestment</li>
<li>PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle </li>
<li>ASMedia GDR Early Look - Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rallies Along With Rebound In Global Tech; Hon Hai, Asustek Top Gainers; KYEC a Top Loser After Announcing China Market Divestment
PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle 
ASMedia GDR Early Look - Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday 9 October, largest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> shareholder MAKI Hiroyuki who is also President and CEO <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6597:1" rel="noopener">Melco Holdings (6676 JP)</a> (a.k.a. Buffalo Inc), <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Z70F.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2026-10-11T23%3A47%3A48Z&amp;se=2031-10-09T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=ZlN8j9BAWwHMZwckJQPtCOc%2FoNMaRr8dEH65e45HT2Y%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> his new larger stake.</li>
<li>Or part of it. He got to 23.32% by 2 October. I expect it's 26-27% as of now, but could be slightly higher. He also released a change in purpose.</li>
<li>That change suggests substantial disagreement with and distrust of management. It threatens a Tender Offer to get over 30% (which he says he intends). Interesting times lie ahead. </li>
</ul>


On Friday 9 October, largest BASE Inc (4477 JP) shareholder MAKI Hiroyuki who is also President and CEO Melco Holdings (6676 JP) (a.k.a. Buffalo Inc), announced his new larger stake.
Or part of it. He got to 23.32% by 2 October. I expect it's 26-27% as of now, but could be slightly higher. He also released a change in purpose.
That change suggests substantial disagreement with and distrust of management. It threatens a Tender Offer to get over 30% (which he says he intends). Interesting times lie ahead. 


[Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender - Financial Engineering Risk Rises

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Maki-San likely holds around 28% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a>, targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.</li>
<li>SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.</li>
<li>At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.</li>
</ul>


Maki-San likely holds around 28% of BASE Inc (4477 JP), targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.
SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.
At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.


BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> disclosed a "<em>difference of views</em>" with Maki-san, who says management ignored the cost of his trading restrictions; he would resume buying from 2 October, targeting over 30%.</li>
<li>With Maki buying at JPY370+, shares trading above terms and the 25% listing floor limiting supply, SBI faces a shortfall at JPY340, and a bump looks inevitable.</li>
<li>SBI likely needs about JPY420 to beat a potential Maki tender, but negotiating with Maki or accepting a small fill (SBI has no minimum) may make more sense.</li>
</ul>



BASE Inc (4477 JP) disclosed a "difference of views" with Maki-san, who says management ignored the cost of his trading restrictions; he would resume buying from 2 October, targeting over 30%.
With Maki buying at JPY370+, shares trading above terms and the 25% listing floor limiting supply, SBI faces a shortfall at JPY340, and a bump looks inevitable.
SBI likely needs about JPY420 to beat a potential Maki tender, but negotiating with Maki or accepting a small fill (SBI has no minimum) may make more sense.


BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> extended their tender on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> at ¥340 despite the tender having no minimum threshold. They obviously didn't get what they wanted. Not close.</li>
<li>That opened them up to expectations of a bump. For me, those expectations were the original base case but the stock didn't act that way. Partial tender situations are funny.</li>
<li>The next day, shares traded higher but still below ¥340. On Friday, things got more exciting. A successful tender needs to be higher (but SBI could attempt a backdoor trade).</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) extended their tender on BASE Inc (4477 JP) at ¥340 despite the tender having no minimum threshold. They obviously didn't get what they wanted. Not close.
That opened them up to expectations of a bump. For me, those expectations were the original base case but the stock didn't act that way. Partial tender situations are funny.
The next day, shares traded higher but still below ¥340. On Friday, things got more exciting. A successful tender needs to be higher (but SBI could attempt a backdoor trade).


[Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) - We Needed Bumpity We Got Bumpitrage So What Now?

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

[Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender - Financial Engineering Risk Rises

Maki-san has raised the possibility of a Tender Offer - a known-known because he previously stated he wanted 30+% and the new TOB rules require it....

Travis Lundy

BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

Maki-san aims for 30%+ via a tender and no longer backs SBI, so SBI's offer can't succeed. SBI either bumps to JPY420–440 or settles for a small...

Arun George

BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

Maki-san is buying BASE again, targeting over 30%. SBI's JPY340 offer will fall short; it likely needs JPY420, but at that price, a deal with Maki...

Arun George

[Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) - We Needed Bumpity We Got Bumpitrage So What Now?

Two days after SBI extended its tender, Somebody decided to target BASE for bumpitrage. It looks like SBI needs to raise now, and not a small...

Travis Lundy

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Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

​Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

[Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender - Financial Engineering Risk Rises

Maki-san has raised the possibility of a Tender Offer - a known-known because he previously stated he wanted 30+% and the new TOB rules require it....

Travis Lundy

BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

Maki-san aims for 30%+ via a tender and no longer backs SBI, so SBI's offer can't succeed. SBI either bumps to JPY420–440 or settles for a small...

Arun George

BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

Maki-san is buying BASE again, targeting over 30%. SBI's JPY340 offer will fall short; it likely needs JPY420, but at that price, a deal with Maki...

Arun George

[Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) - We Needed Bumpity We Got Bumpitrage So What Now?

Two days after SBI extended its tender, Somebody decided to target BASE for bumpitrage. It looks like SBI needs to raise now, and not a small...

Travis Lundy

Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...