Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We know that Bain knew that their mid-September overbid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> did not meet the so-called KDDI Threshold, yet they made that bid anyway (¥3,720 vs EQT's ¥3,680).</li>
<li>IF <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> trades wide, consider going long the arb, but generally, need to participate unless it does trade wide. There're other more interesting deals out there.</li>
<li>Despite the lower-than-expected bid optics compared to prior negotiations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>'s Offer looks done. All ducks are lined up. Just a question of timing on regulatory approvals.</li>
</ul>


We know that Bain knew that their mid-September overbid for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) did not meet the so-called KDDI Threshold, yet they made that bid anyway (¥3,720 vs EQT's ¥3,680).
IF Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) trades wide, consider going long the arb, but generally, need to participate unless it does trade wide. There're other more interesting deals out there.
Despite the lower-than-expected bid optics compared to prior negotiations, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)'s Offer looks done. All ducks are lined up. Just a question of timing on regulatory approvals.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Sankei Real Estate, ReNew Energy Global, Korea Aerospace Ind

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Recruit, Mitsubishi Chemical.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Recruit, Mitsubishi Chemical.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Sep): Toyota Motor, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Recruit

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> has extended its partial tender for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> to 15 October, keeping the price at JPY340; the extension suggests acceptances have been tepid.</li>
<li>SBI may hold firm on price, given its record of not bumping partial offers, such as Shinsei in 2021, and peers' 6% median derating. </li>
<li>However, a bump remains likely: the major shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the extension suggests most minorities are also holding out at JPY340. </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) has extended its partial tender for BASE Inc (4477 JP) to 15 October, keeping the price at JPY340; the extension suggests acceptances have been tepid.
SBI may hold firm on price, given its record of not bumping partial offers, such as Shinsei in 2021, and peers' 6% median derating. 
However, a bump remains likely: the major shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the extension suggests most minorities are also holding out at JPY340. 


BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Tender Extension Signals a Price Bump Is Needed

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>When SBI launched its partial tender for 20% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> at the end of last month, they wanted to buy ~42.5% of the Max Real World Float.</li>
<li>That was at ¥340, a small premium to where the stock was trading, and a 17% discount to where another partial tender last year got only 7-8% of MRWF.</li>
<li>I think the dynamic here favours being long. Pro-ration expectations are misplaced I think.</li>
</ul>


When SBI launched its partial tender for 20% of BASE Inc (4477 JP) at the end of last month, they wanted to buy ~42.5% of the Max Real World Float.
That was at ¥340, a small premium to where the stock was trading, and a 17% discount to where another partial tender last year got only 7-8% of MRWF.
I think the dynamic here favours being long. Pro-ration expectations are misplaced I think.


[Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) Deal Update - Trading VERY Cheap

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Sankei Real Estate, ReNew Energy Global, Korea Aerospace Ind

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Sep): Toyota Motor, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Recruit

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (9101 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Tender Extension Signals a Price Bump Is Needed

SBI extended its BASE tender to 15 October at JPY340, signalling tepid take-up. Despite its partial-offer track record and peer derating, a bump...

Arun George

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

[Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) Deal Update - Trading VERY Cheap

BASE (4477) is trading too cheaply. There is no minimum. 100% pro-ration means up to 43% participation by Max Real World Float vs last year's 7-8%...

Travis Lundy

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