Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>MBK has made a legally binding bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>. Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.</li>
<li>Given the share price decline, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nufarm-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1128:1" rel="noopener">Nufarm (NUF AU)</a>'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.</li>
</ul>


MBK has made a legally binding bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.
Given the share price decline, Nufarm (NUF AU)'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.

Dic Corp (4631 JP) is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

<ul>
<li>I tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mac-copper-limited-6dcb19d0-2c56-496c-817a-5d64e48b3c5d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45237:1" rel="noopener">MAC Copper (MAC AU)</a>and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> possibly in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amara-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2692:1" rel="noopener">Amara Holdings (AMA SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Offers for MAC Copper (MAC AU)and  SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP). Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) possibly in the crosshairs. 
Key updates/news took place on: HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)/Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), and Amara Holdings (AMA SP). 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> at JPY4,900 per share, a 23.0% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>Irrevocables from the two largest shareholders, representing a 68.38% ownership ratio, ensure a done deal as it exceeds the required 66.67% ownership ratio to pass the EGM share consolidation vote.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The tender offer runs from 30 May to 10 July (30 business days).</li>
</ul>



SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) has recommended a tender offer from NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) at JPY4,900 per share, a 23.0% premium to the last close.
Irrevocables from the two largest shareholders, representing a 68.38% ownership ratio, ensure a done deal as it exceeds the required 66.67% ownership ratio to pass the EGM share consolidation vote.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The tender offer runs from 30 May to 10 July (30 business days).


SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP): NTT’s (9432 JP) JPY4,900 Tender Offer a Done Deal

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Late Nov-2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> was trading ¥2,900, weekly mag Bunshun scooped a possible NTT Docomo deal. The stock popped, I was skeptical. It popped more.</li>
<li>At Q3 earnings, NTT seemed to downplay the possibility saying they wouldn't overpay. SBI Sumshin fell. Then fell some more. </li>
<li>Today we get a deal whereby NTT buys out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>'s 34% stake, and minorities, and partners with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust. Then a side deal with SBI. </li>
</ul>


Late Nov-2024, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) was trading ¥2,900, weekly mag Bunshun scooped a possible NTT Docomo deal. The stock popped, I was skeptical. It popped more.
At Q3 earnings, NTT seemed to downplay the possibility saying they wouldn't overpay. SBI Sumshin fell. Then fell some more. 
Today we get a deal whereby NTT buys out SBI Holdings (8473 JP)'s 34% stake, and minorities, and partners with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust. Then a side deal with SBI. 


[Japan M&A] NTT To Buy Out SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163) At a HUGE Price for Minorities

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP): NTT’s (9432 JP) JPY4,900 Tender Offer a Done Deal

Irrevocables from the two largest shareholders ensure a done deal. The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.

Arun George

[Japan M&A] NTT To Buy Out SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163) At a HUGE Price for Minorities

NTT Docomo needed a bank to compete with its mobile telephony rivals. This deal was mooted 6mos ago, but speculation dampened in Feb. But they are...

Travis Lundy

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