Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In a big surprise, there is only one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped yet again in September.</li>
</ul>


In a big surprise, there is only one change for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March with BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replacing Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP). 
The non-inclusion of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped yet again in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is confirmed. </li>
<li>For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is still tops. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> second. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> third.</li>
<li>Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-6525-upcoming-lockup-expiry-and-big-index-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baycurrent-consulting-6532-high-growth-ok-multiple-big-index-inclusion-coming-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>). Now we count flows.</li>
</ul>


The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is confirmed. 
For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is still tops. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) second. Shift Inc (3697 JP) third.
Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I wrote bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (link). Now we count flows.


[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul><li>Stock performance is confirming the ADD of Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T)</li><li>Stock performance is confirming the DEL of Mitsubishi Logistics (9301.T) and (maybe?) Kanadavia (7004.T)</li><li>Best Rebalance portfolio: the Long Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T) vs. Short Fast Retailing (9983.T) with 34.17% performance over the past two months.</li></ul>

Stock performance is confirming the ADD of Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T)Stock performance is confirming the DEL of Mitsubishi Logistics (9301.T) and (maybe?) Kanadavia (7004.T)Best Rebalance portfolio: the Long Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T) vs. Short Fast Retailing (9983.T) with 34.17% performance over the past two months.

Nikkei 225 Rebalancing: Stock Performance

<ul>
<li>Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric Corp (6525.T): High Liquidity Group<br>TOP 75, BayCurrent Inc (6532.T), Shift Inc (3697.T)</li>
<li>Rebalancing Candidates DEL: Mitsubishi Logistics Corp. (9301.T), Okuma Corp.<br>(6103.T), Tokuyama Corp (4043.T)</li>
<li>Capping Ratio: Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983.T)’s Price Adjustment Factor from 2.7 to<br>2.4</li>
</ul>


Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric Corp (6525.T): High Liquidity Group TOP 75, BayCurrent Inc (6532.T), Shift Inc (3697.T)
Rebalancing Candidates DEL: Mitsubishi Logistics Corp. (9301.T), Okuma Corp. (6103.T), Tokuyama Corp (4043.T)
Capping Ratio: Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983.T)’s Price Adjustment Factor from 2.7 to 2.4


Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – January 2025

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

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Shift Inc (3697 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

This is the last Nikkei rebal preview before announcement. We have capping confirmed for Fastie, and the three ADDs have been doing well. There are...

Travis Lundy

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Nikkei 225 Rebalancing: Stock Performance

Stock performance is confirming the ADD of Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T) Stock performance is...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – January 2025

As per the “Periodic Review” conducted twice a year by Nikkei Inc. (Nikkei), the constituents of Nikkei 225 will be reviewed and changed at the end...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

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