Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shift reported 3QFY08/2023 results on Friday and the company’s revenues increased 34.2% YoY and OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.</li>
<li>Conclusion of unprofitable projects and expansion into upstream services have helped earnings to expand, and we expect full-year earnings to comfortably beat guidance and consensus estimates.</li>
<li>Shift’s share price moved up by 19% following earnings announcement and has been up more than 39% YTD, and we would recommend holding on as there is further upside.</li>
</ul>


Shift reported 3QFY08/2023 results on Friday and the company’s revenues increased 34.2% YoY and OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.
Conclusion of unprofitable projects and expansion into upstream services have helped earnings to expand, and we expect full-year earnings to comfortably beat guidance and consensus estimates.
Shift’s share price moved up by 19% following earnings announcement and has been up more than 39% YTD, and we would recommend holding on as there is further upside.


High Conviction Shift: Upbeat Quarter, Share Price Up More Than 39% YTD and There’s Further Upside

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> reported 2QFY08/23 results on Monday. Revenue increased 34.7% YoY to ¥21.0bn (vs consensus ¥21.3bn vs guidance ¥21.1bn) while OP grew 74.8% YoY to ¥3.3bn (vs consensus ¥2.4bn).</li>
<li>Both GPM and OPM improved significantly reaching record highs as unprofitable projects came to an end with cost optimisation initiatives removing previous concerns over declined margins in 1QFY08/23.</li>
<li>Shift’s share price closed at ¥25,870 closing 15.8% higher than the previous close at the end of yesterday’s trading following its strong set of earnings.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 2QFY08/23 results on Monday. Revenue increased 34.7% YoY to ¥21.0bn (vs consensus ¥21.3bn vs guidance ¥21.1bn) while OP grew 74.8% YoY to ¥3.3bn (vs consensus ¥2.4bn).
Both GPM and OPM improved significantly reaching record highs as unprofitable projects came to an end with cost optimisation initiatives removing previous concerns over declined margins in 1QFY08/23.
Shift’s share price closed at ¥25,870 closing 15.8% higher than the previous close at the end of yesterday’s trading following its strong set of earnings.


High Conviction Shift: Margins at Record High with Strict Management and Operational Improvement

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> reported 1QFY08/2023 results today. Revenue increased 35.6% YoY to JPY19.3bn (vs consensus JPY19.8bn) while OP decreased 7.4% YoY to JPY1.8bn (vs consensus JPY2.2bn).</li>
<li>Both GPM and OPM have dropped compared to 1QFY08/2022 but shows significant improvement over last two quarters suggesting unprofitable development projects are coming to an end.</li>
<li>Though 1Q earnings fell a touch below consensus, we would not be too concerned as the company’s new services and being the market leader should drive long-term growth.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 1QFY08/2023 results today. Revenue increased 35.6% YoY to JPY19.3bn (vs consensus JPY19.8bn) while OP decreased 7.4% YoY to JPY1.8bn (vs consensus JPY2.2bn).
Both GPM and OPM have dropped compared to 1QFY08/2022 but shows significant improvement over last two quarters suggesting unprofitable development projects are coming to an end.
Though 1Q earnings fell a touch below consensus, we would not be too concerned as the company’s new services and being the market leader should drive long-term growth.


2023 High Conviction Shift: Margins Begin to Recover as Unprofitable Projects Coming to an End

<ul>
<li>Shift offers outsourced software testing services and is the market leader in Japan. Software testing market is estimated at JPY5.5trn in Japan but only 1% of the market is outsourced.</li>
<li>The company has been rebranding itself from software testing provider to digital transformation (DX) and business services provider and this expansion has further potential to drive growth in the long-term.</li>
<li>Though Shift’s valuation multiples look expensive, we think there is further upside given the strong growth in top line alongside further improvement in margins.</li>
</ul>


Shift offers outsourced software testing services and is the market leader in Japan. Software testing market is estimated at JPY5.5trn in Japan but only 1% of the market is outsourced.
The company has been rebranding itself from software testing provider to digital transformation (DX) and business services provider and this expansion has further potential to drive growth in the long-term.
Though Shift’s valuation multiples look expensive, we think there is further upside given the strong growth in top line alongside further improvement in margins.


2023 High Conviction: Shift’s Growth Strategy Starting to Deliver Results

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

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Shift Inc (3697 JP)

High Conviction Shift: Margins at Record High with Strict Management and Operational Improvement

Shift will report 3QFY08/2023 earnings end of this week and the company's share price has been up more than 13% YTD, this insight will offer...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

2023 High Conviction Shift: Margins Begin to Recover as Unprofitable Projects Coming to an End

Though Shift's 1Q earnings fell a touch below consensus, we would not be too concerned as margins show significant improvement and new services...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

2023 High Conviction: Shift’s Growth Strategy Starting to Deliver Results

Being the market leader and having created a barrier in the enterprise software testing segment, Shift is well positioned to benefit from strong...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

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High Conviction Shift: Upbeat Quarter, Share Price Up More Than 39% YTD and There’s Further Upside

Shift's 3Q revenues and OP beat consensus and we expect full-year earnings to beat guidance/consensus. Share price has been up more than 39% YTD...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction Shift: Margins at Record High with Strict Management and Operational Improvement

Shift will report 3QFY08/2023 earnings end of this week and the company's share price has been up more than 13% YTD, this insight will offer...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

2023 High Conviction Shift: Margins Begin to Recover as Unprofitable Projects Coming to an End

Though Shift's 1Q earnings fell a touch below consensus, we would not be too concerned as margins show significant improvement and new services...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

2023 High Conviction: Shift’s Growth Strategy Starting to Deliver Results

Being the market leader and having created a barrier in the enterprise software testing segment, Shift is well positioned to benefit from strong...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research