Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data observation period is coming to a close. There aren't many trading days left. Recent moves have meant some changes in rankings. </li>
<li>However, I still see TWO ADDs and TWO DELs. There is one cap as of now and another is but 5% away from seeing a $3.2bn sell. </li>
<li>I see nearly $5.2bn of value to trade as of now. A 5% relative move by one stock in the next 18 days would make that $11.4bn.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data observation period is coming to a close. There aren't many trading days left. Recent moves have meant some changes in rankings. 
However, I still see TWO ADDs and TWO DELs. There is one cap as of now and another is but 5% away from seeing a $3.2bn sell. 
I see nearly $5.2bn of value to trade as of now. A 5% relative move by one stock in the next 18 days would make that $11.4bn.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs (One New), 1 CAP, Another Close

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

<ul>
<li>The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. </li>
<li>As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.</li>
<li>That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> are not far behind.</li>
</ul>


The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. 
As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 - Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

<ul>
<li>Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> looked like a classic deletion, not addition.</li>
<li>93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.</li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.</li>
</ul>


Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.


[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Trading in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)</a> spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a>'s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> outperforms.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK)</a> bubble has finally popped. Now what?</li>
</ul>


Trading in Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.

Naspers (NPN SJ)'s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms.
The Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) bubble has finally popped. Now what?


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is "only" 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.</li>
<li>It was a "growth stock" for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited. </li>
<li>The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is "only" 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.
It was a "growth stock" for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited. 
The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.


Shift (3697 JP) - Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

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Shift Inc (3697 JP)

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs (One New), 1 CAP, Another Close

The recent interest and move higher in metals means a change in expected Nikkei 225 DELETE. And the recent move higher in USDJPY and earnings means...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 - Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

The Nikkei 225 Mar-26 rebalance is shaping up to be something different than one might have predicted just a month ago. High volume has trumped the...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

The Sep 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal was not a "right-way" event for the ADD (Shift (3697)). The March 2026 rebal looks also to be a 1 IN 1 OUT affair,...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Shift (3697 JP) - Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

There has been a lot of new shorting as SHIFT lost momentum since July. The Nikkei 225 inclusion reduces Max Float. Current short interest vs...

Travis Lundy

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