High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Professional cycling hit rock bottom almost exactly twenty years ago, when its biggest stars got caught in the perhaps biggest doping scandal ever.</li>
<li>Subsequently, no other sport was as much associated with systematic doping as road cycling.</li>
<li>Since then, the sport has staged a remarkable comeback. A new generation of sponsors and athletes are making it shine again and hobby athletes are spending ungodly amounts of money to get the latest gear.</li>
</ul>


Professional cycling hit rock bottom almost exactly twenty years ago, when its biggest stars got caught in the perhaps biggest doping scandal ever.
Subsequently, no other sport was as much associated with systematic doping as road cycling.
Since then, the sport has staged a remarkable comeback. A new generation of sponsors and athletes are making it shine again and hobby athletes are spending ungodly amounts of money to get the latest gear.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-mar26-rebal-2-adds-3rd-poss-2-dels-1-cap-another-close" target="_blank" rel="noopener">final expectations insight</a>, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.</li>
<li>Higher value traded in the last 6-12mos in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings.</li>
<li>Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our final expectations insight, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.
Higher value traded in the last 6-12mos in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings.
Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for Toyota Industries (6201 JP).


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Early Preview - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data observation period closed a week ago. The Nikkei announced a cap on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, as expected.</li>
<li>Quiddity expectations are unchanged. We see 1 clean ADD, 1 likely ADD (a third possible but unlikely). Against that, two DELetes.</li>
<li>As of now, there is $4bn a side to trade. Beware! The ADV counts are deceptive.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data observation period closed a week ago. The Nikkei announced a cap on Advantest Corp (6857 JP), as expected.
Quiddity expectations are unchanged. We see 1 clean ADD, 1 likely ADD (a third possible but unlikely). Against that, two DELetes.
As of now, there is $4bn a side to trade. Beware! The ADV counts are deceptive.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs, 1 CAP

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data observation period is coming to a close. There aren't many trading days left. Recent moves have meant some changes in rankings. </li>
<li>However, I still see TWO ADDs and TWO DELs. There is one cap as of now and another is but 5% away from seeing a $3.2bn sell. </li>
<li>I see nearly $5.2bn of value to trade as of now. A 5% relative move by one stock in the next 18 days would make that $11.4bn.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data observation period is coming to a close. There aren't many trading days left. Recent moves have meant some changes in rankings. 
However, I still see TWO ADDs and TWO DELs. There is one cap as of now and another is but 5% away from seeing a $3.2bn sell. 
I see nearly $5.2bn of value to trade as of now. A 5% relative move by one stock in the next 18 days would make that $11.4bn.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs (One New), 1 CAP, Another Close

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,380m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, IHI, Timee, Furukawa Electric, Lasertec, Softbank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sanrio.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,380m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, IHI, Timee, Furukawa Electric, Lasertec, Softbank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sanrio.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 12th): SoftBank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sanrio

Japan

SHIMANO INC. manufactures and sells products for bicycling, snowboarding, and fishing.  The Company's products include running gears and brake parts for bicycles and rods, reels, and tackles for fishing.  The Company manufactures golf related products as well.  Shimano mainly exports to Asia, Europe, and the United States.

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Shimano Inc (7309 JP)

Garmin & Strava: Betting on CycleTech

Professional cycling hit rock bottom almost exactly twenty years ago, when its biggest stars got caught in the perhaps biggest doping scandal ever.

Fallacy Alarm

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Early Preview - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

A preview of teh Sep 2026 Nikkei 225 rebal assuming changes are as expected for the Mar26 rebal suggests 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs and $4bn of Advantest...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs, 1 CAP

The March 2026 Nikkei 225 rebal is "Ready to Go" as the data period ended a week ago (and I've been slow writing this). The only update since Jan...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs (One New), 1 CAP, Another Close

The recent interest and move higher in metals means a change in expected Nikkei 225 DELETE. And the recent move higher in USDJPY and earnings means...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 12th): SoftBank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sanrio

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Tokyo Electron (8035...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)